Gibby

For those interested I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here: http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here: http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

I can see nothing other than transient cold wintry showery NW type air flows alternating with milder sometimes wetter interludes. The atmospheric pattern is is not right for anything other than transient cold for the UK for the forecasted period from anything I've seen tonight including the 18z and certainly nothing to oil the blades of the sledge yet.

Hi John It's not a case of not being bothered and I would be glad to post it myself at some point. It does take a lot of time to transfer data from a website to various forums day to day and I recently pm'd Summer Sun giving indication that I was more than happy for him to continue to post it across on my behalf. This is my busy time of year with my craft business and even my website might miss a few updates at times, especially weekends. However, after Christmas and into the New Year when we get into the business end of winter I should be free enough to post them across myself if you folks wish. Meanwhile guys thanks for your support.

Yes it can change back again in another 12 hours.

About as poor as it can get on the ECM 10 day mean tonight. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Can report the first snow of Winter, albeit very wet and mixed with ice pellets and hail in a shower just passed. Very fast changing conditions today.

I can confirm that so can disregard my portion of the summary tonight as I'd posted it before I noticed. Couldn't get a Jet Stream forecast on Meteociel either.

It might sound to many like blowing my own trumpet but you will never find I use terminology like 'warm sectors' in my analysis as I always reflect that the vast majority know nothing of such terms and just at the end of the day want to know what the hard facts of the weather are likely to be over their heads. If I used those terms on my website my inbox would be full of requests to explain what I meant. However, I do concede that many on here are very knowledgeable folk and it seems fine if terms are used when in discussion with other likely knowledgeable folk. Sorry for being off topic. P.S. Thanks to Summer sun for posting my analysis across each night and morning. it saves me a lot of time.

After a frosty start here in North Somerset it's turned very grey as low level stratus has pushed South. Those still with the sun in South Somerset and Devon enjoy it 'cause it's gonna fill in soon. http://90.213.16.110:8002/

I never have understood why people get so frenetic over each run. To me this cold spell (with my 50 years experience) was only going to produce cold rain and sleet to all but the higher ground. So while it might seem a downgrade the upgrade was mostly superficially over ramped from what was likely to occur so perhaps the downgrade isn't as big as some might believe and should come as no surprise as all the best charts were from outside the reliable 5 days range. I still think there will be some eye candy for some to salivate over on the remaining runs tonight but I for one, even if they show good synoptics will not be dusting off any snow shovel yet. It is too early in the season at least in the South. Sea temperatures are too high still and the ground has still got a lot of warmth left in it after a mild Autumn. Wait a month and see these synoptics then I will get more excited.

Yes but synoptics such as being thrown out at the moment are notoriously rare in the UK and I was just highlighting that they may not be seen in the depth of this Winter. That has no bearing however, on how I feel the Winter as a whole will pan out. The most important word in your post was 'if' and that is a very small word with a very big meaning.

Certainly not, on the contrary actually. In fact I am reasonably optimistic that there will be plenty of cold weather about again this winter as you will see when I release my Winter seasonal Forecast on my website over the next few days.

The warm front has just passed here with temperatures having risen from 10C to 13C. Hill fog and drizzle has lifted somewhat and the wind has increased from zero to 20mph from the SW.

Today's ECM mean chart for Day 10 is about as far as you can get for any prospective cold across the UK. Still at least rainfall will be less widespread than of late across the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Been a rough old night here in Bath and NE Somerset with almost non stop shower after shower of rain and hail with the occasional flash of lightning and thunder thrown in, the last flash seen at 6:00am. Getting on for 18mm since the inception of showers yesterday afternoon. A good convective night up in this part of the region.

Some potent showers of rain and hail smashing against the windows at times. Up to 10.4mm most of it since 6pm and now thundering.

I think the Jet profile has changed somewhat over the last 24 hours model output. The tilting towards a more SW to NE flow with European high pressure has been muted today as the flow now looks maintaining a West to East or even as you say a WNW-ESE axis across the UK next week which in turn continues to deliver strong wind and rain events and temperatures closer to average rather than well above.

Looks like todays forecast has gone badly wrong though I concede a lot of doubt was thrown on the rain event today. It now looks that very little rain will affect the South of England as the wedge of rain stays on the other side of the channel. Ironically the most rain is falling further North across North Wales and the Midlands.

I hate this sort of day when strong convection could be possible were it not for this canopy of high level cloud from the slow moving front to the South. The end result is a dull and non-descript weather type day today with no rain as such, cloudy skies, light winds and relatively mild weather. There I feel better now I have got that off my chest.

This map is a good indicator of surface wind speeds as they are happening around the UK at the moment. http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 08:00HRS ON SUNDAY OCTOBER 27TH 2013 Sunday will be bright and very breezy with some squally and heavy showers with strong Westerly winds and just brief and fleeting bright or sunny intervals. It will feel chilly in the wind. Late in the day winds will back towards the SE and it will become wet after dark but the severity of the gales looks like being downgraded somewhat this morning. Nevertheless, Tonight will be very wet with a prolonged spell of heavy rain and as the rain begins to clear East towards dawn winds will increase to severe gale force in places with gusts to 50-60mph possible on what will be an academically mild night with temperatures around 11C. Monday will be a very windy day, especially at first with severe gale force wind gusts causing a little structural damage in places. As the Low tracks across Wales early in the day very heavy rain for a time will be followed by squally showers. Winds will die down after lunch with sunshine and squally showers likely to end the day. Tuesday will be very windy with showers and sunny spells and rather cold weather. The blustery NW wind will continue to die down through the day as will the showers, dying out entirely by nightfall. Wednesday will see brisk Westerly winds and rather cloudy weather with the chance of some rain but there will be some drier spells and though breezy it will be far less windy than at the beginning of the week. By Thursday winds will still be blowing briskly from the West with unsettled weather still prevailing wit some rain at times. Temperatures as a consolation will become close to or a little above average. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 20:00 HRS ON SUNDAY OCTOBER 27TH 2013

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 08:00HRS ON SATURDAY OCTOBER 26TH 2013 Through Saturday fresh West or SW brings will bring a lot of dry and bright weather but there could be some showery rain in places at first and late in the day a spell of heavier and squally rain will cross East through the area followed by clear intervals and squally showers later this evening. Temperatures will reach 15C this afternoon before the rain arrives. Tonight will be very windy and showery with some of the showers heavy and thundery with hail but short-lived as they are blown along rapidly in the strong WSW wind. It will feel colder tonight with temperatures near 8C by dawn. Sunday will be bright and very breezy with frequent squally and heavy showers with strong Westerly winds and just brief and fleeting bright or sunny intervals. It will feel chilly in the wind. Late in the day winds will increase to storm force and it will become very wet overnight. Monday could potentially be very stormy as a vigorous Low tracks across Wales early in the day with the potential for storm force winds and very heavy rain for a time followed by squally showers. Some structural damage may occur to trees and vulnerable buildings especially over higher ground and transport may be disrupted. Winds will die down after lunch with sunshine and squally showers likely to end the day. Tuesday will see the storms having long subsided but it will remain very windy with showers and sunny spells and rather cold weather. Wednesday will see brisk Westerly winds and rather cloudy weather with the chance of some rain but there will be some drier spells and though breezy it will be far less windy than at the beginning of the week. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 19:00 HRS ON SATURDAY OCTOBER 26TH 2013

THE STORM SYSTEM GFS takes the storm across Wales and the Midlands at a pressure of 975mbs falling to 970mbs as it exits Eastern England. All of Southern Britain would be affected by winds with gusts to 70mph + in exposed locations and near Bristol Channel and English Channel Coasts. UKMO has the low a little more south tonight tracking into the Bristol channel at 980mbs in the early hours of Monday morning and exiting the east Coast at 970mbs with the strongest 70mph+ winds affecting English Channel coasts worst of all. GEM has the Low entering SW England at 985mbs in the early hours of Monday and exiting the East Norfolk coast at 970mbs with the strongest winds here in the Eastern English Channel but less problematical for many Southern areas. NAVGEM shows the Low more vigorous with it's centre sub 970mbs in the Bristol Channel on Monday morning and down to below 965mbs as it leaves the Humber coast. All of Southern Britain would likely be affected by storm force winds with gusts to 70-80mph for a time through Monday. ECM shows the Low crossing Wales on Monday morning and on ENE into the North Sea on Monday afternoon with severe gales or storm force winds buffeting the South of England and South Wales through the day.

Leaving the storm on Monday to one side there has been some very lively downpours across Radstock since lunchtime with some incredible high rain rates and wind gusts albeit briefly. A total of 5-6mm of rain this afternoon on top of last nights 6-7mm has made for another very wet and windy day here That suggests the centre might be moving up the Bristol Channel or across the South Coast of Wales.