Isolated Frost

UKMO fax at 48 moves everything a touch east from todays 0z- slightly better than NMM and GFS, not as good as NAE.

Btw I would like to note- downgrade for Monday.. afterward it seems pretty similar (maybe less snow on Tues/Weds, more on Thurs/Fri)

GFS 12z/6z difference (12z left, 6z right) in Durham key (sea level pressure, 850hpa temp, 925hpa temp, 850-1000thickness) Monday 0000 (1018mb, -6c, -3c, 1286dm) / (1018mb, -6c, -3c, 1286dm) Monday 0600 (1013mb, -4c, -1c, 1292dm) / (1013mb, -5c, -2c, 1292dm) Monday 1200 (1009mb, -5c, -2c, 1292dm) / (1010mb, -7c, -4c, 1286dm) Monday 1800 (1006mb, -6c, -2c, 1292dm) / (1008mb, -8c, -4c, 1280dm) That's why I think the 12z is a notable downgrade.

I must say I preferred the GFS 06z suite. Less marginality- lower pressure on Tuesday onwards and a stronger NE/ENE flow, rather than a flow very close to a popping ridge.

GFS moves things further north and east. End result- more marginality expected on Monday, heavier snow expected on Tuesday.

Some superb cloud formations, lots of sunshine and blue skies, and the odd snow/sleet/hail shower- it's not been a bad day!

Roughly so but estimates are very similar in Newcastle, or in Middlesbrough.

Here is the highly interesting MeteoGroup prediction for snow fall for Monday

MeteoGroup prediction.

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Middlesbrough/forecast.pdf Hi-res EC looks very positive for Boro, check meteogram in link-

Not seen any since 1220 :'( Sorry

Out of all the regions, I'd probably hazard an estimated guess that this one (in particular E Yorkshire, Pennines and Lincolnshire) will get hit most by the bands of snow on Sunday night and Monday- good luck!

Depends on elevation. Not much snow to come today I'd think- with very little convection. Sunday wise- maybe some brief snow in the evening, could be very wet or sleety near sea level Monday- looks 50-50 atm but if Scotland does receive snow at lower levels, Fife will be in a good position for it And then atm Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty (snow) showery for the E of Scotland, but there is a lot of changes to be expected between now and then.

Any precip before 3am Monday should be snow, for anywhere in the region (NE, not Cumbria), whilst after 9am Monday it should all be snow... problem is, most the precip is falling between 3am and 9am Monday...

Unless you live at the far SW of Scotland, or is VERY VERY unlucky, you will see snow on Monday. Here is the NMM snapshot for the first band tomorrow evening, this for 1600: And then the NMM snapshot for rush hour Monday: Now these are two in the space of 12 hours- note: The first one has rapidly warming upper air temps- a large snow to rain event.. unless you have serious height (150m+) or the band progresses very quickly, the snow accu would generally be over the southern uplands, the grampians and the fife hills + off course the highlands The second one is rapidly cooling - the mild sector diminishes quickly and cold upper air from the NW moves in.. this should begin as rain for those below 300m, then becoming 200m, then possibly 100m.. the snow should fall for most in the SE of Scotland or the high ground in central parts- Kelso the hot spot for me Snow should be transient however- but in the afternoon, it will be a east-west split, don't be surprised about heavy snow in Edinburgh and heavy rain in Glasgow..

I agree that it's a shame that the current easterly has been downgraded so, but it's still very nippy and there is a good chance of a few snow shrs. When it comes to the Monday frontal snow- current predictions state that through the UK, the regions that will struggle is W/SW Scotland, NE Scotland, NW England, Wales, SW England. N, C, E/SE Scotland, W Midlands and NE England are about on the borderline atm, with Yorkshire/E England/SE England the areas that should be all snow. Monday looks indeed snowy though, and with the way the bands are progressing it could well be snow on Sunday night and then another bit of snow on Monday night- before the more convective E'ly flow moves in on Tuesday- here's hoping that one upgrades instead- it has doubtless potential for some more organised sunshine and snow showers, mainly for E Scotland, NE England, Yorkshire and Lincs and E Anglia especially.

Indeed- a westward shift of about ~100-150mi would probably give snow to much of Central and Eastern Scotland quite easily, as well as lowland NE England. The flow appears to be W/SW for much of Monday, which will hold off the onshore breeze for much of the day, and uppers stay colder than -5c 850s. I know in Scotland, the warm sector is more pronounced early on with some -3c 850s in the circulation- hopefully the NAE and NMM have got this one. Latest regional forecast positive:

Hail, sleet and snow shr just now.

Monday looks touch and go, but if you have pretty much any notable elevation (100m+) it should be all snow. The NAE/NMM going for mostly snow though so that's the most reliable for me. After that, a very cold NE/ENE flow develops for Tuesday.. that's what you want to check out.

When you have charts like this at 72... even geordiesnow will be happy?! Even the EC isn't all that bad. Tuesday and Wednesday atm look very cold and showery from the NE/ENE, whilst Thursday builds a ridge, it would be snowy for the south of the region on the GFS 06z suite- whilst Friday would be pretty snowy on the GFS, though not on the ECM. Hopefully a few upgrades that will de-progress the upper ridge and keep the energy going underneath it. Monday wise it looks very close atm, but veering on the side of snow, not rain.

Sleeting moderately here.

Alza- that assessment seems about fair- but I'd probably say the frontal snowfall looks more likely to do something than the convective atm- the mild sector remains a doubt but the METO seems to disagree with it. Tuesday and Wednesday have so much potential but remain FI for now.

18z (top) seems to be fairly similar at 06z?

What strikes me as interesting is that if we nudge on the right side of the shortwave on Monday, we could well see roughly 72 hours of continuous (or thereabouts) snowfall, frontal and convective. Obviously my underlying interesting is in the convection on Tuesday and Wednesday- but the frontal activity that is moving south-eastwards now becomes top watch for me- the FAXes in a while will be noted- EC, UKMO, GEM and GFS agreeing on a cold E flow mid-week, plenty of convection

Yum.