Isolated Frost
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Posts posted by Isolated Frost
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Big battle tomorrow. Frontal snow moves in from the south-west. Convective snow moves in from the south-east, and it looks like convection will take over.
So, what will the North Sea produce? It looks like it could be quite a bit, and the machine looks like turning on tonight. Plenty for the NE to be encouraged by, as the snow seems to piling in from the east over the next 3 days, and even Cumbria should see some snow from the frontal band tomorrow, before turning bitterly cold.
Plenty to talk about.
Previous thread here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75573-far-north-of-england-regional-cold-spell-discussion-150113-12z-onwards/
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Will close this thread in a few mins for the upcoming wknd cold and snow. Finish your posts off
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-1.1c here.
Rev up the North Sea! Snow showers from the start go tomorrow thank you
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Very big event for those in Hamps, Wilts, Glos, and Dorset potentially. I'm going for 10-15cm widespread, potentially 15-25cm around the regions I pinpointed, and over 25cm on the higher ground (Cotswolds, Forest of Dean).
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The 'purple' circle was for mainly Leeds-Bradford above 150m/200m, v hard to pinpoint on paint! I think parts of W Yorkshire (Huddersfield, Halifax, Bingley) are in for a really good time as well with over 10cm, potentially over 15cm.
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I cant see what colour south yorkshire is? lol
In the 5-15cm boundary, probably lower end, 5-10cm, with high ground more prone to 10-20cm (think high ground Sheffield is in a good position).
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Popped in for a wee nosy to see if there was anything falling out of that band moving north as I thought it was a false return on the radar, glad to see some snow reports from not that far south of me. I'm only a few miles from the border so keep sending it up here
It should get interesting for anyone else who lives towards the east once the wind swings more to the east, fingers crossed for all of us
Indeed- you've moved closer to the promise land of Conservative rule and mansions I see
Nah, hope you in the Borders get some as well, BBC forecast was very bullish for this wknd, blowing in some real convective shrs for SE Scotland and NE England on a sharp E/SE flow. Fun to come!
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Spamming this, sorry! Last one!
My prediction for Yorkshire and North Lincs- the further west, the best- but the NY Moors and most of the Pennines should see lots as well. Over 5cm widespread, and a lot of convection for the east.
This is for tomorrow. Expect Saturday and Sunday to be more fruitful for North Lincs and North Yorks/East Yorks.
Watch the MetO and BBC forecasts/warnings though- in intense situations like this, they are vital.
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Here's my prediction for you guys- the further west, the better, but everywhere should see something.
Note this is for 0000 Fri to 0000 Sat, expect further snow on Sat and Sun to add on just as much if not more in the east.
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Here's my amateur prediction. Over 10cm likely for much of the region, 15-20cm in parts, especially on high ground in the far west and south. Good luck!
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The boundary? Lmao so it could be a let down or a biggie. Most likely a let down
Oh no! Not that- if you read the scale
The boundary between less snow and more snow... and Saturday and Sunday should make such boundaries unnecessary with heavy snow likely. Just my amateur prediction though- listen to the BBC and Met!
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For 0000 Friday until 0000 Saturday. Very amateur prediction !
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My amateur prediction of snow for yous tomorrow
Hope you get what yous want (in due time!!).Note this is only tomorrow. If I added Sat and Sun, then eastern areas would have considerably more.
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Where's Middlesbrough on that map? The red zone or the orange zone?
The boundary really- I'd go for orange- though Yarm and Scotch Corner would be red. All elementary in terms of snowfall on the day.
Watch your lamp-posts and the radar folks, and relax!
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Probably should note that Consett, Derwentside, Tyne/Wear Valley should be much closer to the red 5cm than orange 1cm- and could easily surpass it- all depends where the convection and frontal precip meet up. Somewhere in this region is in for a party, if not all of it.
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thought i'd logged onto sesame street there lol.
only joking I F
Hahaha!
What am I under there Red?
I'd say so. Probably the 4-8cm boundary.
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My HIGHLY amateurish predictions for 0000 Friday to 0000 Saturday. Note, I am no artist!
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Red warnings are for VERY severe weather. The amber warning for your region is warranted.
That however doesn't mean some parts are in for something special. I think southern and western parts of the region could be in for more than 15cm from 0000 Friday to 0000 Saturday- just that Wales (especially south and central) and the W Midlands/high ground in the SW look in a much better position in terms of precip intensity.
Tomorrows precip looks light-moderate in the region because it fragments and weakens a lot as it moves east, especially through the Welsh hills/mtns.
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The North Sea is like a see-through balloon filled to the brim of water (snow!) right now. It has so much inside that you can't see, but by the morning it will have burst as the cold air needle pops it. The amount of snow shrs moving in will be notable over the next few days.
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Mine has about 1", 1.5" in places. You could see the top of some grass this morning, not anymore.
-1.0c in Costa del Wear!
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Nothing here atm, band expected to move NW out of the region tonight, ready for the North Sea monster to start working.
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ECM top, GEM middle, UKMO bottom. You can see the differences. Weakest block on the EC, most northern upper low. Least encouraging ridging (stronger jet profile and more progressive).
The UKMO is better, by far, with an identified block in there- and a strong upper low- only problem is the weaker Russian sector PV (which can be modified in time).
GEM is a complete beaut. Southerly upper low- strong ridge profile- weak jet- strong Russian sector PV bolting up to be released into Scandi.
Interesting differences of upper air profiles- GFS so messed up it doesn't deserve inclusion. It goes against everything- discard it.
Signals for a N/NE'ly to end the month and bring in February increasingly likely...
I'll do these for D5 most evenings (I'll try), to show the importance of the upper air flow.
Tonight, it's-
1. GEM
2. UKMO
3. ECM
and remember... these are charts after this weekend's convective fun... enjoy it all, this could be very good!
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Radar looks encouraging at least for NW England/Cumbria, as well as most of Yorkshire/Midlands. Should continue seeing light snow here.
Yorkshire, W Midlands, Wales should be hit hardest from now until Monday.
Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards
in Regional
Posted
http://forum.netweat...nd-snow-170113/
New thread here.