Isolated Frost

Well, tonight looks interesting on the hr-ec That is a frame for 1am, main activity bustles in around midnight- them purples are some serious stuff, definite big convection and possible t-storms. Convective porn, lets see Cameron censor this.

Finally, rain! 32mm of intermittent heavy rain and t-storms in 6 hours possible tomorrow eve- definitely a sort of respite, but temps should reach at least 25c in the day, and won't fall much below 18c. Hot, humid and potentially v wet!

24c on Friday- pristine clear skies and little wind. Perfect.

sun, sun, sun... 21c, 21c and getting progressively warmer. Summer, non?

Tomorrow looks okay, should be sunny spells and a high of 20c, Thursday onwards looks very promising though- prospects of 24c+ and potentially past the 25c milestone as we move past Sunday.

Just been out, light snow and a gusting wind.

Best weather has to be a week of cold and snow, lots of accumulation, no school and work, and temperatures below 0c. Saturday then sees temps hit 15c with sun and melts most of it (enough to mess around with). Sunday then we see 25c, scorching sunshine, no snow, plenty of BBQ's and football to be had. Then rinse and repeat.

I spy with my little eye something beginning with S... Sleet. It's a start I guess

It's dreary, miserable and drizzling with cold rain here by the bridge on the Wear, in Washington.

Looks like a NE/ENE flow with the bulk of the action moving into NE Yorkshire, E Yorkshire and the Midlands, and perhaps southern parts. Still some shower activity bubbling up outside the Firth and beyond, so expect a few showers to add to the total today. 1cm here and it's cold. Very, very cold.

Didn't check past. Sunshine and 5c on Tuesday IIRC.

HREC goes for sunshine and sporadic snow showers tonight and throughout tomorrow. The shower activity shifts emphasis southwards afterwards-

And here come the sub -13c uppers... Sub -14c uppers for most of tomorrow and then the less cool uppers arrive (sub -8c for all of Monday night and Tuesday as well with a slack N/NE'ly). Bloody cold!

Crisp and clear on top of some rapidly melting snow here, beautiful out there.

Moderate to heavy snow grains, turning now into moderate snow flakes. Starting to lie, some really heavy stuff at times as well.

NMM is cold. At least the coldest upper air temps I've ever seen for our region since I became truly interested in meteorology 3 years ago, and potentially the coldest since 2005, if not further back... Sub -6c 850s from 11pm tonight for all of our region. Sub -8c 850s from 3am tomorrow. Sub -10c 850s from 7am tomorrow. Sub -12c 850s from 11am tomorrow. Sub -14c 850s from 1am Monday. -15c's then closing in, the run ends at 12pm Monday with -14c 850s across the region.

-14c upper air temperatures slipping into the region from Sunday night into Monday morning, plenty of cold locked up to the NE. Can see some 2-5cm accu by Monday evening for much of the region and 5-15cm away from the coast / high ground, notable for Mid March.

Some superlative crunching upper air temperatures from Sunday to Tuesday, -16s lingering in the Danish Straits and -13s popping up at the wash, strong convection signal from it all, low lapse rates, a deep cold pool, plenty of upstream moisture and it looks like some transient strong surface cold. Anywhere from Dundee to Dover has the strong possibility of over 2-5cm, potentially 10-20cm in very favoured spots (though that is the top end of accu).

Lots of snow on the banks of the wear... got to be at least 2 inches atm. Big final glump to come from the Tyne/Wear area, and possibly further south in Durham. Nice event in the face of high pressure; can't help but think a N/NE'ly from the Arctic would make this winter a good one!

Just had a peak of the EC- first time this winter that I've found the arctic outbreak consistently modelled now- very exciting The prospect of that advancing vortex advecting a pretty deep and immense cold pool from the north is tantalising to say the least, -16c air into the Faroes at D8 iirc; the retrogressive motion is promoted well by the op, and the cold trough lingering by the North Sea/Benelux says cold and snow showers for basically anywhere in GB at any time from D7 onwards Very cold widespread upper air profiles, a pretty unstable cold flow and the prospect of more down the line from Scandinavia and the Arctic Ocean is very much on in my opinion- though the amount of residual energy lingering to the north-west will be decisive in the potency and length of the winter farewell.

When you see output like this 7 days out, you take notice. EC promotes big retrogressive signal- and with that the first true arctic outbreak... I'm sure 264/288 would be an unstable Scandi vortex- ridging GL heights and a conveyor belt of weak modified low pressure systems across Iberia; north and north-easterlies dominating with low thicknesses and high convection levels. If we see anything of the sort, then perhaps I'll keep my cold goggles on for at least a few more weeks; anything beats this low cloud and wintry drizzle easterly!

Paris, Munich, Milan- huge cold spell coming for them ! Heavy snow on top of the weak jet and under the infamous UK high , which works so much for W Europe. It looks very cold for all of Britain atm, with snow/snow shrs likely across S/SEern parts at times, not the worst outlook for cold lovers...

So, a cold east/north-easterly with snow showers for southern parts and high pressure dominated clearer skies and cold nights for the north and west. The high then retrogresses allowing -ve anomalies to build over Scandinavia accompanied by a strong sector of the PV, allowing a more northerly/north-easterly arctic airstream as we close out the meteorological winter. That's just based on recent EC output though , wonder what Exeter is looking at.

UKMO seems to have pushed everything 100mi W, as is often the case in these situations- Cold reels in by the start of the next working week though... snow showers and sharp frosts for England, Wales, and parts of Scotland at t120.

3cm and heavy cold rain here- good event.