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Isolated Frost

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Posts posted by Isolated Frost


  1. been cooped up with the flu most of this week which has limited my enjoyment of the spell. 16cm here in ne38 compared to 42cm on december 3 2010, and 34cm in january 2010, and with less prolonged cold/snow and less extremes also, but a notable spell nonetheless. definitely the best since 2010. as with the nature of most showers, there's a lot of local disparity and so travelling a few miles north or south would provide better depths for sure. there's just something i appreciate much more about cold spells before the new year than those afterwards

    with uppers below -10c for about 5 days straight now, and colder ssts, i'd imagine that this has been a memorable week for the immediate coast in terms of snow falling and lying

    • Like 1

  2. I couldn't analyse anything about what happens after +192 because it's just really weird... 216 is something I've not seen before at all!

    Mind you, at d10 we have -8c uppers touching E Scotland with shortwaves and heavy snow across Scotland and N England- but regardless, it'd be best (for the UK) to summarise the EC as this:

    -cool and windy today and tomorrow, some wintry shrs on high ground (mostly above 500m)

    -turning milder by Monday, up until around the 23rd; with cloudy and warmer conditions likely to prevail

    -turning colder by Wednesday, especially in Scotland and the northern areas, with wintry shrs from first the NW, turning to the N by Christmas Day itself, perhaps some snow shrs moving to lower levels at times, but mostly dry and sunny

    -by Boxing Day, it turns milder again from the W; and on the 27th a transient blowtorch SWly comes into play with high pressure nearby

     

    for the love of sanity I couldn't go further as NE England goes from +5c 850s at 216 to -7c 850s at 240; but I think it's definitely all to play for, and it's fair to say the ECM op will again be a milder outlier between D7 and D9... for me the points of interest are too varied to pinpoint an exact problem- shortwaves, Euro heights, Icelandic lows, Greenlandic heights etc... but I'm very wary of the 12z ECM, and that's not just because it doesn't set in the deeper potent cold that other models suggest... but the evolution after Christmas is just weird

    • Like 2

  3. I'll be honest here, I've been looking but not really noting much of the GFS output; it's just been too volatile. Good for fun and games, but past D7 I'm just taking it with a big pinch of salt. The EC is the model I've been looking at more often than not; and in particular the 12z.

    and at least at D6, there is some consistency with yesterday's (first pic today's 12z EC at D6, second pic yesterday's 12z for D7 - same date)

    ECH101-144.GIF?19-0

    ECH101-168.GIF?12

    Good general consistency, with a stronger Greenland height profile, and lesser +ve Europe pressure anomaly; good run up to D6 so far I'd say

    on that note- some snow shrs for NE Scotland on the day itself; and probably strong gusts and rain/sleet across eastern parts due to the shortwave ECU1-144.GIF?19-0

    • Like 3

  4. post-12276-0-65824800-1418928828_thumb.g

    Well... Iceland's getting blasted at least.

     

    Icelandic low completely scuppers the deeper cold on the EC; a developing trend; but regardless, very encouraging to see the the WAA and building of Greenland/mid-Atlantic heights; strat effects may mean this is going to be a very slow build up to the coldest spell. Intriguing output from now till then.

     

    It may not be instant cold, but D10 is one of my favourite charts since that projected Dec 12 easterly that never happened... magic: post-12276-0-12614500-1418929027_thumb.g


  5. Well well, tomorrow looks like it's the first point of interest for many of us by the coast. Some rain, some sleet, and some snow (in Consett of course); very touch and go and lamp posts at the ready. Wouldn't worry if there's none around tomorrow though, signals suggest that this is just hors d'oeuvres to the main course.


  6. What's very much set through the GFS output is the transferral of energy from Greenland/Canada to Siberia in FI, transcending through the stratosphere to the troposphere, at least on the 6z; and it makes the potential progression that the 6z gets more feasible. Of course it's just one run but if we get a few more days of this, then coupled with moving into D10 on the ECM; and coupled with a hopefully more stable move into phase 7 with the MJO, you can see things start to really build for some sort of feedback on the ground around the New Year. I'd agree though that with the SSW not quite appearing, it'd be more likely to see the crux of any outbreak to begin being projected by January instead of December.

     

    Still, positive signs... and it's not December 2013 strat modelling for definite!


  7. I think this is very plausible. The world has been brainwashed into believing this carbon malarkey and have been consequently robbed by governments who have had their "green" bank accounts filled to brim. Of course, according to our leaders there is no possible way that global warming cannot be happening. However, this is not through scientific fact, this is through fear that they will have to endure the public outrage for robbing us blind for the global warming that IS NOT HAPPENING.

     

    On the other side, governments like to control everything, even the weather. Therefore, in their opinion, anything that happens to our climate must be man made and somehow the public has to pay for that. They simply cannot accept that if mother nature wants to poke us in the eye with a pooey stick, she will do it perfectly well on here own and nothing human kind can do will stop here. This strikes fear in the hearts of governments around the world so they like to give the impression that they can somehow control mother nature with money.... bless them.

     

    What they should be doing is taking note of the natural cycles that earth goes through, and preparing for what is an already over due ice age and coming up with ways to sustain food sources, heat etc.

     

    Rant over, just an opinion, don't shoot me!

    I've only just looked at this thread and this early reply strikes me as interesting; particularly as multinational corporations, in particular, oil and gas giants often form the anti-AGW lobby; whilst the majority of respected scientists form the AGW lobby.

     

    In reference to the title, I can't really see it happening whatsoever, we'd need to recover sharply from the near lows we are currently at before we can formulate some coherent response as to where we go next- we're teetering on the abyss no matter what inter-year anomalies suggest. 

    • Like 2

  8. When comparing the years used on the analogue for October AO, with November AO in brackets (trivial, perhaps, but I've done it nonetheless):
    1959: -0.249 (-1.411)

    1962: -0.016 (-1.112)

    1965: 0.394 (-1.341)

    1968: -1.013 (-2.183)

    1969: 0.098 (0.326)

    1976: -0.804 (-0.087)

    1985: 1.035 (-1.218)

    2009: -1.540 (0.459)

    2014: -1.134

     

    With the AO set to trend quite low in the next few days, 68/69?

     

    Further on from this, each of the winters used by the OPI analogue have featured a sub -2 AO month:

    (DJF CET 4.6) 1959/1960: -0.042, -2.484, -2.212

    ( -0.3) 1962/1963: -0.711, -3.311, -1.721

    ( 4.4) 1965/1966: 0.163, -3.232, -1.438

    ( 3.2) 1968/1969: -0.783, -2.967, -3.114

    ( 3.3) 1969/1970: -1.856, -2.412, -1.325

    ( 3.3) 1976/1977: -2.074, -3.767, -2.010

    ( 2.9) 1985/1986: -1.948, -0.568, -2.904

    ( 2.4) 2009/2010: -3.413, -2.587, -4.266

    Dec average AO: -1.33

    Jan average AO: -2.67

    Feb average AO: -2.38

     

    With these composite years, there's no wonder the OPI f'cast is full on, each January is sub -2, with the exception of 1985/1986, which featured one of the coldest Februaries in the last 200 years. 

    • Like 9

  9. Certainly looking cold...

    When using uniform scales, to try and see how each compares, this is what comes out:

    (using 500mb GPH from -160mb to 160mb anomaly, 850mb temp from -4c to 4c anomaly)

     

    December

    post-12276-0-72613600-1415658979_thumb.ppost-12276-0-28607800-1415658984_thumb.p

    Slightly cooler with rather insignificant anomalies, very much in line with the reduced OPI-Dec CET correlation, though stratospheric changes in November as pointed out by Chiono and many more could be integral to seeing which way it tips (seems like either average or thereabouts, to pretty cold).

     

    January

    post-12276-0-41526700-1415658990_thumb.ppost-12276-0-19401900-1415658995_thumb.p

    Much more marked, again various other factors will probably temper or accentuate this, but the +ve GPH much stronger to the north-west, with Scandinavia in particular much colder. Showing a -NAO pattern more conductive to longer lasting cold.

     

    February

    post-12276-0-70522800-1415659000_thumb.ppost-12276-0-87577000-1415659006_thumb.p

    Far away, we can dream though...

     

     

    • Like 7
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