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knocker

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Everything posted by knocker

  1. Worth just keeping an eye on at this stage but if, and when, a lobe of the tpv gets established near Iceland at the end of the week then once again there will be an active breeding ground for cyclogenisis in mid Atlantic and we don't want another deep low skirting too close again
  2. The little upper low currently NW of Coruna develops and plays quite a significant role over the next five days
  3. The differences between the mean anomalies was noted this morning with the GEFS suggesting renewed amplification of the subtropical high allied to regression of the Atlantic trough. It has revised that position this evening
  4. Not forgetting the Met Rece plots John/ Just sneaked in to our day http://www.202-sqn-assoc.co.uk/metrecce.html
  5. With reference to my earlier post the difference between the 06 gfs and midnight ecm is quite apparent from around t168 and this is the position at 00 Sunday. The treatment of the vortex lobe over Greenland and the North American ridge and the knock on effect downstream The east coast storm
  6. The is little agreement between the mean anomalies this morning thus confidence of detail within the evolution is low. It starts relatively early in the piece with the tracking of a lobe of the vortex from northern Canada east and the subsequent suppression of the subtropical high as the tpv over the Arctic relocates,or not. The EPS is much more bullish with this than the GEFS this morning as the latter is more inclined to withdraw the main tpv back to northern Canada. This regresses the Atlantic trough west and allows further amplification of the European subtropical high whilst the EPS is flatter and zonal. NOAA is twixt and between
  7. An interesting view of storms in the Atlantic including more rapid cyclogenisis in the west
  8. Saracens are facing automatic relegation from the Premiership at the end of this season if they fail to reduce their wage bill by £2 million before the end of the month. The club’s breach of the salary-cap regulations was so extensive that they initially agreed to the figure but it now appears pretty much impossible for them to meet their pledge. The salary cap is set at £7 million. Saracens were fined £5.36 million and docked 35 league points after an investigation revealed they broke the salary-cap regulations in each of the previous three seasons. But Saracens will only be deemed to be compliant with the cap this season if they can reduce their wages by £2 million. Initially the new chief executive, Ed Griffiths, was bullish that he could shop his players around on the market and cut spending accordingly. However, having been in the job for a fortnight, he has discovered that this is almost impossible.
  9. Some better news for the east coast of Australia with some heavy rain and thunderstorms
  10. On another note, a chilly but sunny with light winds, weekend sounds alright to me
  11. Having a quick look at the clusters does nothing to suggest anything different from my earlier post that the ext period looks very much like a fluid Atlantic and the usual phasing of the airmasses being the percentage play
  12. The transition to a more settled scenario this weekend quickly establishes an impressive high cell but through next week this does come under pressure from energy exiting the eastern seaboard, aided and abetted by the presence of a cut off low in the Iberia region.. And later in the ten day period a lobe of the tpv tracks east from northern Canada which essentially marks the end of high pressure influence and a return to a more zonal flow as the tpv over the Arctic undergoes some restructuring. The various anomalies vary a tad in detail but all are in the same ball park and give a reasonable over view of this
  13. Get today out of the way and a more settled period with high pressure at the helm will be most welcome to all. But the orientation of the ridge, centred to the south west, is quite critical and certainly this morning's gfs run illustrates this. Below is the GEFS seven day temp average,I appreciates this smooths over daily and diurnal variations, but does help to illustrate the point
  14. A glance at the EC weeklies update for the first two weeks of February 01 > 08 The tpv has relocated to the old stamping ground of northern canada with associated trough into the NW Atlantic. This facilitates some ridging downstream by the subtropical high in the vicinity of the UK Thu portending a settled period, possibly excluding the north west, with temps a tad above average 08 > 15 The main difference here id Atlantic trough is more central so with the subtropical high not being quite so influential perhaps a tad more unsettled
  15. As my old friend Sammy Rachevsky oft said. The accuracy of the models is inversely proportional to the time from day zero. Thus the common sense way to analyze them is from day zero out and not day ten in
  16. A look at the GEFS and EPS mean anomalies this morning which take us from the initial amplification this weekend through the next change which apparently occurs around day eight when a trough tracking from northern Canada (a well known tpv watering hole) tracks east and merges with the tpv in the eastern Arctic. Illustrated here using the ecm From this point the restructuring of the tpv across the Arctic gets underway resulting in a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic and a suppression of the subtropical high Thus a probable return to a more changeable scenario after a quieter period but tending towards a N/S split. Of course it is unwise to attempt to deduce detail from these charts but transient wintry episodes are quite possible, particularly in the north, as systems track east Last evening's NOAA
  17. The direction of travel of the mean EPS anomalies very much in the same ball park as the GEFS so further comment unnecessary
  18. The medium term GEFS mean anomaly has quite an intense tpv northern Russia with an arm extending to northern Canada/NE America, adjacent to the rdge This results in a very strong jet exiting the eastern seaboard around a weakening mid Atlantic ridge.The tpv continues to develop in the ext period which eventually eradicates the ridge establishing a flat zonal flow. This would presage a return to more unsettled weather after, hopefully, a more settled period
  19. We have to be thankful for the resilience of the subtropical high as it stops the cold arctic air plunging south. I mean that doesn't bear thinking about
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