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Everything posted by knocker

  1. It remains a never ending mystery to me why the cold and ice lovers seem to feel that they deserve more than the rest of us mere mortals. As witnessed by the oft repeated saying, or words to that effect, "God, do we ever deserve it" at the possibility of crippling snow and ice sometime in the next six months. I mean, do they contribute more to the Cornish destitute fund? No; the survivors of the 47, 62-3 winters fund? No. So essentially they are just a bunch of whingers who are not getting their sweeties
  2. We finally lose the upper trough (vortex lobe) that has been dominating the Atlantic for the last few days. But the respite is short as a strong Pacific jet becomes twin energy flows around North America (aided and abetted by the subtropical) and thus the situation remains rife for cyclogenisis in the Atlantic.and some more wind and rain As can be seen over next weekend and the beginning of next week
  3. Both the gfs and ecm have a very volatile and baroclinic Atlantic next weekend with further rapid cyclogenisis and WAA into Europe. Most of the activity is to the west of the UK, and obviously the detail will change, but worth keeping an eye on
  4. Saracens cup runneth over. At the end of a difficult week and with a much depleted side they are thrashed 41-14 by the Quins of all people. Best game I've seen Marcus Smith play
  5. Brilliant second half yesterday by Bristol to blow Gloucester away. Elsewhere Sale won at Sandy Park against a somewhat depleted Chiefs, still a good win. And Irish had a very good win at Northampton on Friday with wins also for Bath and Wasps
  6. A vile morning with moderate rain and low cloud but perhaps can just see a clearance to the west. May be the first cold front
  7. These charts pretty much self-explanatory
  8. The EP flux seems to cropped up a fair bit of late. For those like myself not particularly au fait with this Eliassen-Palm (EP) Flux Diagram Meridional fluxes of westerly momentum and sensible heat can be easily calculated from constant pressure charts at various levels in the atmosphere. As per the Eliassen-Palm theory, these parameters give fluxes of geopotential wave energy in the meridional-vertical (y, p) plane. Streamlines can then be drawn in (y, p) plane, giving the direction and intensity of flow of energy in this plane. Figure 4.17 is a schematic diagram representing the flux of wave energy in (y, p) plane. The curves of 1/f = constant streamlines for the flux of wave energy. It may be noted that the flux of wave energy in a channel between two adjacent streamlines is not a constant, but varies along the channel in proportion to U as indicated by the length of the arrows in the diagram. Thus when energy flows toward increasing value of U, the wave energy flux increases in the direction of the streamline, carrying energy from the basic zonal flow. The opposite phenomenon occurs in the direction of decreasing U. In any way, wave energy cannot cross the singular line U = 0. Source: Stratosphere Troposphere Interactions, K. Mohanakumar
  9. PSC's have been observed in Norway and Finland and but for cloud could have been at Lerwick. The coldest part of the vortex is now moving NE via Finland
  10. Not going to happen but interesting 850mb temps in Europe resulting from the latest amplification and subsequent trough disruption
  11. Plenty of eye candy on offer in the late stages of the EPS this morning. Hopefully we can save Spring
  12. The ecm this morning has the vortex at 10mb and down to 50mb realigned and under pressure from the double whammy over the ten days Which is not out of kilter with the tpv popping back to it's old stamping ground, regression of the Atlantic trough accompanied by some amplification of the European subtropical high
  13. QUANTIFYING HUMAN-INDUCED TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ON THE 2018 UNITED STATES FOUR CORNERS HYDROLOGIC AND AGRO-PASTORAL DROUGHT https://ametsoc.net/eee/2018/3_Williams0187.pdf Press release https://www.news.ucsb.edu/2020/019761/warmer-dryer-browner
  14. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-13985-7 open access Press release https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-01/sip-nrf012120.php
  15. Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0592-8
  16. Some Teals on Copperhouse Creek, Hayle, this morning. The light was appalling with low St and Sc
  17. The 5-10 mean anomalies merely confirm the indications of the det runs that the tpv lobe close to Iceland, aided and abetted by the 'feeder' from the subtropical jet, create an active cyclogenisis zone in the Atlantic that will imprint on the UK during this period. During the ext period the structure and orientation of the vortex changes resulting in the regression of the Atlantic trough which facilitates some amplification of the subtropical high in the east. There is no hard and fast agreement here at the moment but it does portend a more settled period, albeit trending towards a N/S split Latest NAO, AO
  18. How Melting Permafrost Is Beginning to Transform the Arctic https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-melting-permafrost-is-beginning-to-transform-the-arctic
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