knocker
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Posts posted by knocker
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Thanks for that Knocks! The recent highlighting of the current U.S. 'Arctic Plunge' in the other thread makes this a very timely offering. As the piece notes the 'cold extremes', driven by the rapidly changing Arctic, are just as telling as the heat/drought/flood events.
Actually I think this a classic example GW taken in conjunction with this.
While Most of U.S. Froze, Parts of Alaska Set Record Highs
While the continental U.S. has been shivering from coast-to-coast with temperatures dropping as low as minus-40°F amid one of the most severe early December cold snaps in several years, one state bucked the trend in an historic way. The same contorted jet stream pattern that brought the brutal cold to the lower 48 states pushed a pulse of milder-than-average air into Alaska, where some spots recorded temperatures unheard of for December.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/while-most-of-u.s.-froze-parts-of-alaska-set-record-highs-16817
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(Phys.org) —Oliver Jagoutz of MIT and Mark Behn of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution are suggesting in a paper they've had published in the journal Nature, that foundering of lower island-arc crust can explain characteristics of the origin of continental Moho.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-12-foundering-island-arc-crust-continental-moho.html#jCp
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Gracey Glacier Retreat, Alaska
Gracey Creek Glacier is a small glacier in southeast Alaska that terminates near the Canadian border. The glacier’s main terminus is the northern terminus (red arrow), though it has southern terminus as well (purple dot), both drain into Behm Canal via different rivers. Here we examine Landsat images from 1987 to 2013 to identify retreat and tributary separation in the last quarter
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Yes it's a concept that some refuse to try to understand. A globally warming climate will create regional extremes. Not necessarily all to do with ST.
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GW a bit more on that paper you posted in the arctic thread with Jennifer Francis and Jeff Masters.
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A quick snippet
Professor Richard Allan, from the University of Reading's Department of Meteorology, discusses the 'pause' - also described as a slowdown or hiatus - in global warming, and explains what might be causing it.
Prof Allan is part of the Climate directorate of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) at the University of Reading.
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The level of projection that goes on with science/anti-science debates can be impressive. I haves climate racist and science bully on my own CV.
I'm still awaiting member of the Nazi extremist-tipper movement for the full set. Shouldn't be long.
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As an aside Just reflecting on the activity in here today and note I'm now a troll and a stalker. My CV is almost complete.
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And by coincidence the oft quoted 16 year 'cooling' period 'proving it's nothing to do with CO2 starts around 1998.
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Gavin Schmidt.
I thought this would be a little silly, but it's actually pretty good: Climate simulations of Middle Earth:
Scientists simulate the climate of Tolkien’s Middle EarthEver wondered what the weather and climate was like in Middle Earth, the land of hobbits, dwarves, elves and orcs, from J.R.R. Tolkien’s The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings? Climate scientists from the University of Bristol, UK have used a climate model, similar to those used in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, to simulate and investigate the climate of Middle Earth.
The results show that The Shire, where the hobbit Bilbo Baggins lived before he was whisked away on his unexpected adventure described in The Hobbit, had a climate very similar to that of Lincolnshire and Leicestershire in the UK. However, Mordor, the land of the evil Sauron, had a climate similar to that of Los Angeles and western Texas.
The results are presented in a paper, penned by the wizard Radagast the Brown (probably the first environmental scientist). Among other findings, he explains why the elves set sail from the Grey Havens (the prevailing winds were favourable for their journey to the West), and the existence of a dry climate east of the Misty Mountains (the mountains cast a rain-shadow over the region). Radagast also discusses the strengths and weaknesses of contemporary climate models, and shows how they can be used to understand and predict future climate.
Professor Richard Pancost, Director of the Cabot Institute at the University of Bristol said: “Because climate models are based on fundamental scientific processes, they are able not only to simulate the climate of the modern Earth, but can also be easily adapted to simulate any planet, real or imagined, so long as the underlying continental positions and heights, and ocean depths are known.â€
Dr Dan Lunt added: “This work is a bit of fun, but it does have a serious side. A core part of our work here in Bristol involves using state-of-the-art climate models to simulate and understand the past climate of our Earth. By comparing our results to evidence of past climate change, for example from tree rings, ice cores, and ancient fossils of plants and animals, we can validate the climate models, and gain confidence in the accuracy of their predictions of future climate.â€
The IPCC, including several scientists from the University of Bristol, have shown that climate models can successfully simulate climates from the freezing world of the last Ice Age, to the intense warmth of the ‘Eocene greenhouse’, 50 million years ago. These same models are then used to simulate the future climate of our planet.
http://www.bristol.ac.uk/university/media/press/10013-english.pdf
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Yes because prior to that we had a couple of years of a cool phase before it switched back to a warmer phase. You sometimes see these small fluctuations prior to a longer term switch.
So essentially you are rejecting Trenberth and Fasullo because they don't really understand the workings of the PDO. Fascinating.
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That constitutes a criticism of the paper does it? Give me strength.
Just from the abstract. Note the PDO went negative in 1999 not 2007.[/quoteIt didn't it was September 2007 before it was officially declared negative.
Are you saying then the paper is invalid, or at the very least, scientifically dubious. because in your opinion the PDO wasn't in a negative phase in 1999?
What Roy Spencer says is not very specific in that he doesn't attempt to indicate when the negative phase started, just we have entered...........
And now, as of late 2008, it looks like we might have entered into a new, negative (cooling) phase of the PDO. Only time will tell whether this pattern persists.
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Simple if we are going to attribute the pause with the PDO then we also have to utilise its warming influence also.
That constitutes a criticism of the paper does it? Give me strength.
Just from the conclusion and abstract. Note the PDO went negative in 1999 not 2007.
4.ConclusionsThe picture emerging is one where the positive phase of the PDO from 1976 to 1998 enhanced the surface warming somewhat by reducing the amount of heat sequestered by the deep ocean, while the negative phase of the PDO is one where more heat gets deposited at greater depths, contributing to the overall warming of the oceans but cooling the surface somewhat. The Pacific Ocean appears to account for the majority of the decadal variability Chen et al., 2008]. Nevertheless, the events in the Pacific undoubtedly also affect the Atlantic, Indian, and Southern Oceans as the system acts collectively to equilibrate to the sechanges in the flow of energyMore than 90% of the heat goes into the oceans and, with melting land ice, causes sea level to rise. For the past decade, more than 30% of the heat has apparently penetrated below 700m depth that is traceable to changes in surface winds mainly over the Pacific in association with a switch to a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 1999. Surface warming was much more in evidence during the 1976–1998 positive phase of the PDO, suggesting that natural decadal variability modulates the rate of change of global surface temperatures while sea-level rise is more relentless. Global warming has not stopped; it is merely manifested in different ways.
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http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-44#entry2859081
And yet not one scientific explanation can really explain the pause, the PDO most certainly not as that only went negative in September 2007. The plain truth is that not one climate scientist saw it coming an yet now hundreds with hindsight can explain it away with bad science.
Perhaps then the you could do us the courtesy of explaining what you find scientifically dubious about the Trenberth and Fasullo paper If you need any help I'm sure Four will be only too happy to oblige.
it concludes:
The PDO is essentially a natural mode of variability, although there are questions about how it is affectedby the warming climate, and so the plateau in warming is not because global warming has ceased. Theevidence supports continued heating of the climate system as manifested by melting of Arctic sea iceand glaciers, as well as Greenland, but most of the heat is going into the oceans and increasingly intothe deep ocean, and thus contributes to sea-level rise. The analysis in this article does not suggest thatglobal warming has disappeared; on the contrary, it is very much alive but being manifested in somewhatdifferent ways than a simple increase in global mean surface temperature.The onus isn't on me to explain to millions of taxpayers as to why the warnings were wrong,
Another one of your famous non sequiturs of which you seem to have an endless supply. And actually the models did cover this, but that's by-the bye, the onus is on you to at least attempt some form of scientific reasoning when deriding scientists who know somewhat more than you on the subject. Quite frankly your feeble attempts to justify an entrenched ideology would make a primary school debating society look like the Oxford Union.
The Camborne Stalker.
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A creature that lives forever
Surprising diversity in aging revealed in natureIn our youth we are strong and healthy and then we weaken and die - that's probably how most would describe what ageing is all about. But, in nature, the phenomenon of ageing shows an unexpected diversity of patterns and is altogether rather strange, conclude researchers from The University of Southern Denmark.
Not all species weaken and become more likely to die as they age. Some species get stronger and less likely to die with age, while others are not affected by age at all. Increasing weakness with age is not a law of nature.
Researchers from the University of Southern Denmark have studied ageing in 46 very different species including mammals, plants, fungi and algae, and they surprisingly find that there is a huge diversity in how different organisms age. Some become weaker with age – this applies to e.g. humans, other mammals, and birds; others become stronger with age – this applies to e.g. tortoises and certain trees, and others become neither weaker nor stronger – this applies to e.g. Hydra, a freshwater polyp.
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-12/uosd-sdi120613.php
The immortal jellyfish
http://www.bitrebels.com/lifestyle/the-only-animal-that-can-live-forever-do-you-know-what-it-is/
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Lol, humour isn't one of your strong points then. It was meant as a tongue in cheek reply for your constant drive for posting anything and everything against a sceptical opinion. If you wish merely to discuss scientific facts instead of cheap jibes then let's discuss the pause in global surface temps or how continuing rising CO2 levels aren't impacting as they were proposed to do.
I assume you have just awoken from a comatose state as the subject has been discussed in fair detail on here ad infinitum, and in greater detail in various scientific papers such as for example the one above. To none of which do you have the courtesy to offer any semblance of scientific rebuttal but just resort to the same old mantra. I've met many closed minds before but never one that is hermetically sealed.
P.S. If you think the drivel from the Watts blog comes under the category of scientific opinion then that explains all.
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It is a shame that the mods end up clearing up such nonsense though?
I quite agree GW.
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Life must be all fun and games in the knocker household.
As usual when when you have nothing useful to say, you resort to cheap personal comments, which I might add could be upsetting to some people. Your ignorance is breathtaking.
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I'm posting this, partly for some light entertainment, but mainly if you wish to view the AGU on demand videos, HotWhopper has included some brief notes how to access them. Apparently it's not that obvious. I haven't tried it so assume it works.
How to view the AGU Fall Meeting on-demand videos
Those who aren't able to get there can view the sessions on video. This is the last year the on-demand sessions will be open to all and sundry. From next year onwards you'll have to be an AGU member, according to their website. (It costs $US50 a year to join as a full member or, if you don't qualify for membership, as an associate - $US20 if you are a student. Here is a list of the benefits.)
You don't need to pay anything this year so jump right in!The instructions on how to get access to the videos aren't very clear and you have to jump through a few hoops. This is what you need to do, if you're not already registered.
- Go to http://virtualoptions.agu.org/
- Scroll down and enter your email address in the box under "Registration"
- Check your email and click the hyperlink or copy and paste it into the address bar on your web browser
- On the page that appears, be sure enter promo code AGU13 so you aren't charged $100
- On the next page fill in the boxes - you'll need to repeat your email address and come up with a password
- When you get to the end you can go back and check your email again, you'll need to view it in HTML, not plain text, to read it.
- Click on this link again http://virtualoptions.agu.org/ and enter the email address and password you provided in step 5.
- I think it's here that you have to fill in more details
- You'll finally arrive at the page you want, which is full of videos - live streaming and all the sessions held so far.
- Set aside several hours for the next several days.
- Enjoy and learn
Still while we are here we might as well take the opportunity of noticing that the AWs literati have managed to sink to a new low. Believe it or not. Mind AW isn't any better. A couple of examples. You couldn't make it up really without risking being whisked off to the funny farm.
Anthony Watts goes to AGU Fall Meeting
TalentKeyHole Mole says "science = fascism":
December 9, 2013 at 5:32 pm
Nazi extremist-tippers movement hijacked the AGU I’d say. Only difference in the fellow with the “Repent†sign outside and the President on the sign inside is … location. Ha!EW3 says "science is filth":
December 9, 2013 at 5:33 pm
You are going to use lye soap to feel clean again.PaulH thinks the NSA is spying on everyone and says:
December 9, 2013 at 5:45 pm
Oh, and note the wall mounted video surveillance camera aimed directly at “gas sucks†lady’s laptop. I wonder which three-letter organization is monitoring her online activities. Come to think of it, there must have been many such cameras scattered throughout the convention centre, eh?ldd says "scientists are all thieves":
December 9, 2013 at 5:57 pm
You have my admiration Anthony, don’t thing I could stand being in a den of thieves.-
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I haven't had chance to read this but it seems unduly pessimistic at first glance. I've got an idea it's been posted before.
The Future of Arctic Sea IceArctic sea ice is a key indicator of the state of global climate because of both its sensitivity to warming and its role in amplifying climate change. Accelerated melting of the perennial sea ice cover has occurred since the late 1990s, which is important to the pan-Arctic region, through effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulations, the Greenland ice sheet, snow cover, permafrost, and vegetation. Such changes could have significant ramifications for global sea level, the ocean thermohaline circulation, native coastal communities, and commercial activities, as well as effects on the global surface energy and moisture budgets, atmospheric and oceanic circulations, and geosphere-biosphere feedbacks. However, a system-level understanding of critical Arctic processes and feedbacks is still lacking. To better understand the past and present states and estimate future trajectories of Arctic sea ice and climate, we argue that it is critical to advance hierarchical regional climate modeling and coordinate it with the design of an integrated Arctic observing system to constrain models.
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105345
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Whoops
Scientists from U of T’s Department of Chemistry have discovered a novel chemical lurking in the atmosphere that appears to be a long-lived greenhouse gas (LLGHG). The chemical — perfluorotributylamine (PFTBA) — is the most radiatively efficient chemical found to date, breaking all other chemical records for its potential to impact climate.
Radiative efficiency describes how effectively a molecule can affect climate. This value is then multiplied by its atmospheric concentration to determine the total climate impact.
PFTBA has been in use since the mid-20th century for various applications in electrical equipment and is currently used in thermally and chemically stable liquids marketed for use in electronic testing and as heat transfer agents. It does not occur naturally, that is, it is produced by humans. There are no known processes that would destroy or remove PFTBA in the lower atmosphere so it has a very long lifetime, possibly hundreds of years, and is destroyed in the upper atmosphere.
“Global warming potential is a metric used to compare the cumulative effects of different greenhouse gases on climate over a specified time period,†said Cora Young who was part of the U of T team, along with Angela Hong and their supervisor, Scott Mabury. Time is incorporated in the global warming potential metric as different compounds stay in the atmosphere for different lengths of time, which determines how long-lasting the climate impacts are.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is used as the baseline for comparison since it is the most important greenhouse gas responsible for human-induced climate change. “PFTBA is extremely long-lived in the atmosphere and it has a very high radiative efficiency; the result of this is a very high global warming potential. Calculated over a 100-year timeframe, a single molecule of PFTBA has the equivalent climate impact as 7100 molecules of CO2,†said Hong.
The research was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and was published online at Geophysical Research Letters on November 27, 2013.
http://www.artsci.utoronto.ca/main/newsitems/new-long-lived-greenhouse-gas
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Hi!
Just joined the forums as I've treated myself to a Watson W-8681
I'm a bit bothered that its showing a relative pressure reading of 1015.00 hpa when the area I live in is showing 1027.00 generally
I've found an RAF weather station 10 miles away positioned @ 83 metres ASL (same as me); can I safely "adjust" my station to match?
Regards
If you have a slack pressure pattern in your area no problem. Now is probably okay but check when stuck in the middle of high pressure.
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Just noticed it PM. Corrected..
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For a minute there I thought this was about the skeptic thread.
Sea creatures unknown to science have been discovered living a mile under the freezing waters of Antarctica by experts from Cambridge.
More than 30 new species of marine life were revealed during an expedition by British Antarctic Survey biologists to the Amundsen Sea.
The trek took place nearly five years ago, and it has taken until now to establish that the animals – which include an octopus, a crab and a limpet - have never been recorded before.
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Yellowstone supervolcano 'even more colossal'
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
Blimey
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25312674