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knocker last won the day on October 29

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  1. looks like this thread is turning into another search for cold. There will be nowhere to post soon
  2. Well yes and no. It is very amplified over North America and it would appear that the combination of the strong Pacific jet after it hits the buffers of the Alaskan ridge, and the subtropical jet, ensures a strong twin westerly flow exiting the south east seaboard across the Atlantic.before diverging. I suppose that if the block weakens and tracks too far west, which appears to be the suggestion, then the flow would become more zonal.
  3. The ecm does this again which sets it up to be different to the ecm quite early in the piece
  4. At T120 at the end of the short range there is the usual two energy flow conundrum south and north of the high cell with the former gaining some traction with a surface low now over France. This maintains the easterly with showers along the east of the country with temps around average. Over the next two days the energy flows working in tandem and slowly force the high cell west over Greenland which initially pushes low pressure a tad north increasing the easterly flow over the UK with rather more in the way of unsettled weather with temps around average or a tad below, But by T168 the northern arm has dropped an upper trough into northern Scandinavia which, on the surface, has introduced a light north easterly element in the north with temps generally a little colder with showers still along the eastern fringes By T192 the battle is still raging and although the southern arm a.k.a. the subtropical jet, has facilitated the formation of a deep depression in the atlantic there is now minimal longitudinal movement so colder air has filtered down from the north over the UK which is in no mans land, Possibly snow showers in the north on a quite cold day
  5. still a lot of rain over much of England and Wales with temps quite depressed which about decsribes the day as well, although it's not been a gad day in these parts except cold in the wind
  6. I suspect the front/trough is bringing more persistent rain to the east Midlands and the south east than aticipated
  7. Gradually moving towards average by the end of the ext period. I suspect it's gearing up for a barbecue Xmas.
  8. Not a bad morning here with some Ci/ A bit nippy with a Tg of 1C The 0600 Synops http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/06.html
  9. The general point made above equally applies to the ecm and the downstream difference in detail will be down to the ecm interpretation of the energy distribution. For example towards the end of the run the ecm again has the Atlantis trough nudging a tad north and disrupting the elongated high cell which promotes the Azores to ridge north to phase with th east section of the disconnect. All of which sets up a south easterly again after a period in a col. temps remaining below average
  10. knocker

    New Research

    Radiosondes Show That After Decades of Cooling, the Lower Stratosphere Is Now Warming https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018JD028901#.W_N0tbiL7tA.twitter
  11. Moving into next week it is still all about the energy distribution, imo of course, well illustrated by looking at the NH 250mb wind profile at T168 (and maybe worth a glance at the post above) A very strong north Pacific jet hitting the buffers of the Alaskan ridge and then aiding and abetting the subtropical jet as it swings across the Atlantic. So in a nutshell the UK stays in a cool easterly to begin with which the becomes a col before a quite cold transient northerly. By day ten a trough dominates the mid Atlantic and northern Europe.
  12. Outlook - breezy, cold with frequent wintry showers. Becoming less so by the weekend. The NH profile and surface analysis for midnight Currently frequent showers north of a line North wales to the Wash. mainly in the eastern half but not exclusively so, Further south and west where it is clearer a touch of frost in places. During the day the showers will become more widespread and frequent, particularly in the north, in the strong easterly wind so wind chill will need to e factored in to the low temps. During this evening and overnight the low pressure over France begins to move north and this backs the easterly wind a tad at first and with an occlusion draped across the north of England showers pep up and become more intense here and the Midlands with snow on the high ground and this will include north wales. But the movement of the low also drags some colder air north into the south west, central southern England and Wales so snow showers distinctly possible on Dartmoor and other similar areas The wind now starts to veer and abate though Wednesday as the low drifts west, apart from the north east, and thus the showers become more concentrated in western regions of England and Wales and the north. Still feeling very cold. Over Wednesday night and through Thursday the low continues to drift west and the showers are now concentrated in the north, including N. Ireland, but particularly so along the NE coast. Warming up a tad By now we have reached the position discussed previously with, over the next couple of days, the twin energy flows exiting North America facilitating the development of intense upper lows in the western Atlantic and eastern Europe which pressurizes the high cell and nudges it west whilst leaving the low pressure adjacent to the UK and just to the west. Thus the UK remaining in a south easterly/easterly wind, albeit not as strong, with showers tending to confined to the NE and SW Temps now quite near average. So to the NH profile at T120
  13. Although tonight’s GEFS and EPS medium term mean anomalies are not in agreement in some areas they are both in the same ball park indicating a quite significant pattern change. The significant features now indicated are an Aleutian low/Alaskan ridge complex with a very strong north Pacific jet hitting the buffers with the subtropical jet running under the radar , exiting the south east US seaboard, and across the Atlantic to the UK. Both agree on the loss of the north Russian vortex and east European trough, albeit keeping negative anomalies over Europe The contentious area is mainly around the vortex returning to north Canada/ NW Greenland whilst the high pressure retrogresses and weakens and this is a bit messy. So as an overview this would portend an upper westerly flow tending to changeable weather with temps near average. Looking quickly at this evening's NOAA it would appear also to be in the same ball park