Ladyofthestorm

The models are wanting to follow the typical Zonal pattern of wet windy and mild , but that is a very strong temp gradient between the two air masses over south Greenland . Strong Jetstream, but where will it lie. My money is on moving south.

Found it.... 1984 was a very zonal active winter and it brought very wintry stuff at times. Like Matt said this set up we cannot dismiss . Its going to spring surprises over the weekend. Below is December 1983 followed by January 1984 This is today's

I would definitely take a read of Matt's post. Looks like cyclongenesis could bring a few surprises next week. Winter 1983/ 84 an El Nino year I think , very strong positive NAO around Christmas time . It was a very green stormy Christmas. New years day into 2nd bomb cyclongenesis brought us a very strong NLy and blizzards . Low pressure sunk right down from north all over the country. Not a SSW, beasterly, reversal of winds on sight. I'm sure you guys have access to the synoptics . Check it out... 2.1.84 to 5.1.84 you'll see what I mean

Just checked the ensembles for Aberdeenshire, it's looking pretty much nailed on a return of colder weather from middle of next week Even the even the ECM is agreeing. Looks like a NW and wild with it. Could see gales, travel disruption just before Christmas.

Is it just me, but does nearly every chart on any weather model showing the 500 pa seem to have the polar vortex very stretched and elongated. This is an el nino winter afterall. It should be wound up tightly over the pole.

I've no idea why there is so much doom and gloom . Looks the best winter set up in decades personally even in an El Nino winter. Blocking over Scandinavia and to the North of us, Cold continental Europe. Long range looks promising. We are always going to get milder spells . We don't want snow turning to ice . Yuck. Look at the dumping the West have just had. That's the mildest part of the UK supposedly!

It is telling that many of the models are pointing to an atypical el Nino winter for NW Europe. , blocking high pressure to our North and East . Where we expect above average temps and the prospects of an Atlantic driven winter. We have none. Interesting that the all model ensemble run, global ... Looks cold for Europe. Take heed.

Hello everyone Just a few things to add, any reintroduction of a Westerly regime will be brief. This has been a very unusual El Nino year for us, with unexpected blocking. The block we are talking about is an Omega Block and it doesn't look ot it was will go away soon . Another trend Ive noticed if that the Euro models long range trended colder towards the actual month . The month of interest is December. Current month ( November) prediction for December Octobers prediction for December Septembers prediction for December Trend is your friend. Drivers. For blocking are surprisingly in place. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4962794

Hello everyone Just a few things to add, any reintroduction of a Westerly regime will be brief. This has been a very unusual El Nino year for us, with unexpected blocking. The block we are talking about is an Omega Block and it doesn't look ot it was will go away soon . Another trend Ive noticed if that the Euro models long range trended colder towards the actual month . The month of interest is December. Current month ( November) prediction for December Octobers prediction for December Septembers prediction for December Trend is your friend. Drivers. For blocking are surprisingly in place.

November 2010 watching thundersnow!

If these NLy outbreaks continue to pop up, Christmas 1995 or 2001

My own thoughts for NW Scotland April Nly blocking dry but cool May continuing trend June our wettest month July much better trending warmer and drier August first half wet , second half drier September wet and windy!

Looks like the METO is plumping long term for Nly blocking

Going to be close to record breaking cold March for my area . Temperatures midday barely above freezing . Snow on ground even at sea level for past 7 days and trend looks set to continue. On a par with March 2006 and 2013.

I think we are ok. The NAO and AO are likely to remain negative to neutral

Both of them look they are going to drop the PV right over Scotland

Agreed, we are now getting close to having the need for nowcasting. Temperature uppers and groundwater perfect for setting snow. Monday in the north but Tuesday in the south

Not convinced ... as the teleconnections don't marry up. The ensembles and in general have not got to grips with the strat-trop link yet. The NAO is staying negative on the ensemble runs suggesting a very settled outlook . I would be wary of looking at these trends outside +185 hrs . Yesterday it was showing a downward temp trend for us and a biting Nly wind. So definitely a huge pinch of salt these Ensemble's

Dry and sunny is good!

Good morning folks. I've been watching the effects of the SSW unfold in the models. I think it's going to come from the North rather than East this time around . Just like 2006.

Going to Split

I think this is where the role of the teleconnections would really come into play. Our GFS ECM etc are not picking up the changes. But I suspect the Teleconnections are. It will be really interesting to see how the Chino and Tamara interpret this.

Can I ask if a reversal in zonal winds is related to these graphs. My limited understanding is that the cold Stratospheric air needs to permeate down to the troposphere and boundary layer . Surely that's a given if winds reverse as it's interrupted the westerly flow of the Jetstream.

Trend is your friend, going down?

I can imagine sods law. I need to be Inverness on that day for a hospital appointment!