Kirkcaldy Weather

2nd January 1933 2nd January 1978 2nd January 1992 2nd January 2005 2nd January 1985 2nd January 2006 2nd January 2020 Again surely cant be coincidence that the majority show a less than ideal setup on this day with a strong PV?

December mean temp for Scotland was 4.1 C - other years with 4.1 C December - 1991, 1977, 1932 "1932-33: Late October, snow fell in Scotland, an early start to the skiing season! Late February there was a Great Blizzard, for Ireland, Wales, South West England, Northern England, and the Midlands. Whipsnade recorded 2ft of snow, Harrogate and Huddersfield 30 inches, Buxton 28 inches! Very Snowy." "1977-78: Mid January, 6 foot drifts! A week later, and 4 inches fell. Mid February saw 4 inches also. Late January, heavy snow in Scotland, drifting, 28 inches falling in parts! Mid February (see above) was very snowy in the North East, East and South West. February 11th had 1 ft in Durham and Edinburgh. Feb. 15-16th South West England, blizzard with huge drifts, sounds like my cup of tea!" Scotland East 3.7 C - other years - 2004, 1984, 1977 2004/05- "Westerlies continued during January with the only notable snow event being another NW'ly incursion on the 18th, with big but brief snowstorms over Northern Ireland and south-west Scotland. February was another fairly mild month with frequent anticyclonic north-westerly regimes. There was a northerly blast around the 13th, but as the Arctic was unusually warm, there was little in the way of snow; however a rather more potent northerly occurred on the 19th/20th with snow showers in the northeast. The last third of February and early March had persistent easterly winds and snow showers, but generally limited accumulations on the ground. Inland parts of south-east Scotland, north-east England and Kent, however, often had significant accumulations. Overall this easterly spell disappointed many snow lovers." "1984-85: Very cold and snowy, especially in Southern England. Early January, there was snow in Eastern England. Mid January, East Anglia and Kent getting the goods, with 6 inches falling here. Mid January, South West England and South Wales (yippee!). Late January seeing snow in Scotland, and the prone spots, such as Aviemore, getting 2ft of level snow, Northern Britain as a whole affected though. Mid February, Southern England, 6-12 inches, substantial drifting taking place. 29th March gave Scotland snow. A memorable year. Snowy." Scotland North 3.9 C - other years- 2005, 1977, 1932 2005/06 "Not much snow to speak of during January and February (the late February '06 easterly was even less potent than the Feb '05 one), but this changed into March. A northerly airstream during first week March brought snow showers for many, with 50cm in northeast Scotland and thundersnow widely reported around Aberdeen. More heavy snowfalls on the 12th March, which especially affected western Britain. Further snow in early April, with heavy snowstorm in north-east England on the 8th, and in south-east England late on the 9th." Surely no coincidence that both 1932 and 1977 keep showing up ( I am pretty sure these years came up when I did the analogue charts for ENSO back in September will check that when I have more time but going by those years something possibly brewing for late January and February? ) The History of British Winters - Netweather.tv WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

At least it will be cooler tomorrow as 850 hpa of around -5/-6 moves in (currently 10.4 C here) would rather be in Norway - snowfall next 48 hours Back to clearing more neds oot eh

discussion of cold spells that didn't materialize, last winters failed easterly, THAT ECM... All get together and find a way to destroy the PV, looks like it wants to try and go the full 12 rounds this winter Though some tantalizing hints from GP.... Dreadful here, heavy rain blustery winds 9 C about as far away from wintry as you can get.

Amen. The way some carry on you would think the UK will never see snow again, patience is often the best trait when it comes to UK winters and trying not to get too downbeat whatever the outcome. If all else fails I am trying to keep my snow and ice twitter thread updated as often as possible

Rare bird spotted at Fife park - Fife Today WWW.FIFETODAY.CO.UK Santa Claus wasn’t the only recent visitor to Glenrothes as an even rarer guest flew into town.

Happy New Year everyone, new year new trend? Hopefully

Extending El Niño event predictions to a year PHYS.ORG A group of researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Beijing Normal University and...

Looks like that coupled with the Indian Ocean dipole have contributed towards the heat Also a large "blob" of warm water near New Zealand The strange Pacific Ocean 'hot blob' off New Zealand coast and why it's growing WWW.NZHERALD.CO.NZ Patch of water bigger than New Zealand has temperatures six degrees warmer than average.

just went below freezing here -0.1 C / DP -0.9 C

1979: Huge waves batter Kirkcaldy - Fife Today WWW.FIFETODAY.CO.UK As 1978 came to an end the new year arrived with Fife subjected to some of the worst winter weather for may years.

Overnight low of -0.5 C here now 6.0 C and Wish I could of experienced that 1979: Huge waves batter Kirkcaldy - Fife Today WWW.FIFETODAY.CO.UK As 1978 came to an end the new year arrived with Fife subjected to some of the worst winter weather for may years.

not quite correct as still in phase 7 and a few go into phase 8 (though some also go toward phases 4/5) but as I mentioned in my last post I still think we are in a bit of a lag period in terms of feedback of conditions. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

If only we could go back 9/10 years... Come on winter / snow god's get yer act together

Looks like the NASA/GEOS5 was closest for the UK but the JMA done well with the position of the lows in the Atlantic, overall the models struggled with the higher pressure over the UK and over done the lower pressure / trough to the east. Hope everyone had a lovely Christmas. Well we are now in phase 7 MJO although models only want to stay in phase 7 for a few days ( I would say the longer the better should any higher pressure develop like shown in the those phase 7 charts above to give us a better chance at something colder, though I think we are in a slight lag period and still stick with that general outlook above, also the phase 7 for January looks more favourable than that for December so ideally remaining in phase 7 heading into the start of January would be best but not sure if that will happen.) Looking at the charts for the strat some warming perhaps developing during the first week of Jan and some hints of a possible displacement of the PV toward Scandinavia (though the models have struggled this year with strength of the PV and any warming so caution / low confidence with this)