Here's tomorrow's (Boxing Day) chart modelled by GFS at T+72 (i.e. only two days ago - Tuesday 12Z)
How things change. Look at the mid Atlantic compared to how it's modelled now.
For those worrying over today's T+168 (which is a full week away) - I'd say chill with a wee sherry and a mince pie :smiliz19:
I'd have thought to make that assertion MIA it would be necessary to compare apples with apples. Do we have decade figures for the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000s? Comparing 16 randomly chosen years with 7 thereafter feels a bit cherry-picky? The trend might well be true - which is very interesting, just need genuinely comparable evidence.
As you say, the data comes from GFS Pit - and I've just compared your 'week ahead' to that on http://www.xcweather.co.uk at Doncaster (the nearest to mighty Sheffield) for next week and it's identical. The Met obviously use their own data. Be interested to know whose 3 or 5 day forecasts are more accurate....
Fluctuating model output meaning, for me at least, FI begins at T+108-T+120. Too much changes between runs in the 12-24 hours beyond that to not acknowledge the big differences showing every 6 hours on GFS for our wee island.
Also worth saying there is a little button, coloured dark blue with white writing, at the bottom right of every post - please click this button labelled "Like This" if indeed you do like the post - rather than clogging up the thread with a message saying 'I like your post'. Thanks
Having received a number of reports from other members trying to enjoy the forum, your post along with a number of others that I have removed were both off topic and unhelpful.
The topic of this thread is:
Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2
Look forward to more discussion and predictions