UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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I remain unconvinced until we are at +48hrs, we've been here so many times this winter.Some rather rash posters seem to be the problem tonight more like
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The same that's been happening throughout winter, ECM leads the way but the GFS is having none of it, then the GFS joins the party only for the ECM to start downgrading everything.I think the ecm is just getting worse run by run in my opinion'!!especially 850s wise!!this morning it was showing 850s of -8 to -10 around 144 hours amd now its just shlwing -6!!what the hells happening!!
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Would you consider moving up to the NW Ian, I ask from a purely selfish point of view with regards to our local BBC weather presenters. Without wanting to sound too harsh, what they know about meteorology could be written on the back of gnats testicle.I'll be in Bristol and in touch with Exeter anyway. Will keep you advised. Early days.
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Depends on the time of the year, even during the 80's not one of those easterly outbreaks during the winter months brought sunshine.A true Easterly bringing dry air from the continent would not pick up much moisture over the north sea , then we would get sun to the west of high ground
Me too ,The wife and i have been into Liverpool today and whilst the wind was a bit chilly it was quite pleasant in the sun..Roll on Spring
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We rarely get sunny days of an easterly.We'd get bu**er all with an easterly wind , just cold frosty Nights and mainly sunny days , we're too well protected by the pennines
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No, no RP, it is only to be ignored when showing mild.Just as I was almost beginning to believe that it should always be ignored...No wonder newbies are getting confused...
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Indeed, could we be heading up the same garden path yet again. Hopefully we will see the long awaited retrogression towards Greenland before May.I think, although its only one run, the pessimism is due to the last few ECM runs looking like bringing a prolonged cold spell, whilst the 12z looks like a brief few days event. Bearing in mind the other progged "easterlies" this winter from the ECM, we are rather suspicious this will be another false dawn; that is, as we near the hi-res further downgrades. A recent tweet sums it up:
weatherschool
Midday ECMWF nowhere near as cold, a brief dip but then rising again, see http://t.co/tBlg9Ihs #ukweather
The ensembles should guide us to whether this is just another short colder interlude, and another ECM garden path we have gone too far up.
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Oh no not another easterly, for these parts they are pants 99% of the time. Fingers crossed we at least see some much needed sunshine, I won't hold my breath though as not many easterlies bring sunny conditions.
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The usual nonsense regarding the potential easterly being progged at the end of next week in the MOD, personally I cant abide easterlies but as long as it brings some much needed sunshine I'm happy.
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Well there goes another snow to rain slushfest of an event, it really has been a poor winter for these neck of the woods for both cold and snow events. Hopefully we get some much needed sunshine in the coming weeks/months, as I'm fed up of grey laded and damp skies. Here's to Spring/Summer 2013, may you at least bless us with some sun, warmth and thunderstorms.
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Indeed RP, how many times has this forum gone into meltdown only to find the actual event is a non event. Back to the models and I'm actually looking forward to some dry and frosty weather which the ECM is suggesting, I 'm not particularly bothered where the high sets up as long as it brings sunshine.I think I'll just take solace in the fact that, whatever 'epicness' any particular model might be showing, the weather will just do whatever it does...For all the 'stellar runs' we've seen, so far this winter, none has actually materialized...
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Very light snow now, temp on the up though currently 0.7c. These snow to rain events rarely get me excited anymore, possibly due to the fact that's all we've seen this winter.
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Moderate snow here with a light covering, temp 0.6c.
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We could talk about that big fat Greenland high that will sit there from May to September.Just off for a nosey in the snowfest threads
Edit; I meant to quote your other post!
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Based on sods law I'm predicting a cold and unsettled spring, one where heights over Greenland finally establish themselves leaving members of Net Weather to curse their luck again.
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Looks like I could see the second winter running without a cover of snow that lasted longer than twelve hours, this year just betters last year by one fall of slush more. Also this winter I've only recorded 7 frosts, pathetic really and on par with some terrible winters from the bad old days.
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But not widespread cold temps Fred, due to any cold not being able to back far enough West. Yes some have seen some very low minima's and it certainly could have been a lot worse, but with the NH being primed for cold outbursts it was disappointing too say the least that the majority of the UK couldn't tap into any deep cold.Sorry Nick but have to disagree, the cold spells this winter have delivered pretty cold temps at times and if continued overall will post a below average winter. Its the way it goes sometimes, it culd have been a lot better..yes, it could have been a lot worse...yes. We are 50+ degrees north but also in the path a gulf stream.
BFTP
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Finally turned to snow here, temp 2.9c with a DP of 2.0c.
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So the ECM is leading us up the garden path again this evening, I must admit it looks a far better set up synoptically then anything we've seen this winter thus far.
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Temp 3.0c, weather, the usual.
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Sleeting here with a temp of 4.2c, will it turn to snow I wonder.
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Lol, as strong as Man City's defence. December came in around average for the month and January did deliver snow for quite a few. But we was never able to tap into any deep cold pool throughout due to heights not being able to back West far enough. It's been a relatively poor winter for a lot of areas for cold, around these parts we are running at average to just above in terms of temp and well below average in terms of snowfall and frosts. The synoptic profile in the NH has been fantastic, unfortunately for us we haven't been able to get the best out of this for large parts of this winter.Really? December was below average for much of the north, and there were a few snow events in the first half of the month. I know you didn't have a good spell in January, but much of England, Wales and parts of Scotland had a superb 2 week spell. Tomorrow looks very interesting for parts as well.
The atlantic is as strong as Man City's defence- if there was any time for the block to push through, retrogress and bring in the cold, it's now.
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i admire you optimism Frosty but I'm struggling too see where such a cold spell will come from. We have the same problem as we've had all winter despite favourable Synoptics, maybe towards the end of this month we'll finally get heights in the right place but by then we'll be looking at making a silk purse out of a sows ear.The fact is that all the models have their ups and downs, the ecm has been very good in the build up to the current coldish spell whereas the gfs appeared to be clueless, however, the ecm was predicting something a lot more severe than we are likely to end up with whereas the gfs was never really buying it at any stage and jumped onboard only recently but now it seems the ecm is slipping a bit and the gfs could be about to enter a purple patch of it's own, I keep optimistic that the cold block can deliver a knockout blow to the rather listless atlantic next week and find a way to a more severe spell in the last few weeks of winter.
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Lol, soon be Spring CC. I wouldn't let it bother you as some in the MOD thread can't see past snow coloured spectacles, your views are greatly appreciated here.I don't care anymore. Wasted too much of my life this winter chasing synoptics and providing analysis for ungrateful sods in MOD thread.
Tomorrow just looks damp to me
Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted