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UV-RAY

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Posts posted by UV-RAY


  1. Its coming- winter is one its way- :)

    In the short term ( maybe 10-15 years) the arctic having low summer coverage- heading towards sub 2 million Sq may well benefit us have a net effect on the westerly zonal wind ( as pointed out in the link someone posted)

    The anomaly 500 Heights seem to be +VE around greenland which is good news for us-

    Im expecting a strong cold winter for NW europe!

    only 14/15 weeks to go!

    This must be your earliest ramp yet Steve, looking at the long range models maybe we could see a repeat of 2010 with winter arriving early. Hopefully it will stay around longer!

  2. I think that any of the sites dealing with the atmosphere would be better placed to give you a full and detailed description? Remember it is not just the composition of the atmosphere but also how it works. Watch the areas of the Arctic that are open water this autumn both for the temp. profile through the depth of the atmosphere but also for the pressure system that is caused by the water shedding it's summer heat before refreeze can set in?

    P.S. I'm not suggesting Dev isn't qualified to answer you but we all start our learning curve somewhere and I believe it easier to 'learn' than to be 'told'?

    I don't want to read biased reports and findings, as a laymen I want to see some actual observational evidence that can be identified as being responsible for warming, not just theorised evidence. Is there anything out there which can solely be used as evidence for being responsible for warming the planet?

  3. How have we changed it and by how much, can these changes be measured and if so can you demonstrate these changes?

    Just to add I don't believe any such changes can be measured, and the only thing that demonstrates any changes is speculative at best.

  4. By entire I mean to the whole. We have changed the composition of the whole atmosphere. As a proportion it is indeed an small amount but there is no doubt (as measurements show) that the entire atmosphere has been changed by us.

    On your pie chart a hundred years ago Co2 would be .03%.

    How have we changed it and by how much, can these changes be measured and if so can you demonstrate these changes?

  5. If its not James Madden they quote with this rubbish its Piers Corbyn,

    Netweather's outlook for May however is not cold.............

    May

    May is currently expected to see high pressure often centred out to the west of the UK, with further higher than average pressure to the east of the country too, leaving the British Isles themselves in between the two. Another warmer than average month is forecast to be the outcome of this pressure pattern with rainfall widely close to average albeit with some locations potentially significantly wetter.

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

    Let's hope it doesn't go the way of the pear like last summers forecast. Sorry GP, just a bit of gallows humour.

  6. I hope I wasn't one of the "others" as I gathered what was meant by "best" and "worst" but just pointed out that the terms are heavily subjective (hence Weather Ship's cite of 1962/63 being a legitimate answer to the question).

    I'm not sure how I would've fared in 1962/63 myself, though I suspect I would have enjoyed it up until the point when the snow became icy (following a temporary partial thaw and refreeze) and then started hoping for a thaw (albeit probably just a temporary thaw to get rid of the ice, rather than the end of the wintry weather as a whole). I doubt that I would have enjoyed February 1947 as while the shortage of sunshine in NE England wasn't quite as extreme as further south, if February 2012 was to produce a similar sunshine total at Durham (unlikely) then it would make it the dullest February since 1980.

    Although I was alive during 1988/89 and 1989/90 I was too young to be recording the weather diligently back then so I can't really rate those two winters. 1989/90 had a lot of potent Atlantic activity which for windstorm lovers would have helped to offset the lack of cold and snow, though the winds also caused a lot of problems for some with the storm on the 25/26 January 1990 causing more problems overall than the October 1987 one, due to slightly lower intensity being offset by a greater area of coverage.

    Off course not TWS, yours was as ever a very constructive post.

  7. I actually assumed nothing. Just took the title of the thread on trust. I didn't realise it had a hidden agenda which is bloody stupid on my part knowing the forum. Apologies for being so thick and digressing from your point,

    Wasn't a dig at your good self WS, just one or two others. There's no hidden agenda by the way, it does what it says on the tin so too speak.

  8. I think there are two many people jumping all over seven of nine here. Seems some people are simply not bothering to read what he actually wrote...he did not say it was the worst winter ever however if you check it again...he states this rivals any mild winters before. Actually for me and my area it's been absolutely stinking bad this winter for lack of snow..relegated to almost the exact same thing as seven. 1CM of very wet snow that lasted for around 4 hours during the first week of december. It was so wet it barely stuck. I digress, this winter has without doubt been one of the mildest here, and for christmas day the mildest ever, i thought that would take some beating (11.4C) but it was completely smashed in 2011. The easterly as barely done a single thing over this way...temps in feb are meant to be cold, after all it is the coldest month of the year...and frosts are normal...however you know, to me autumn started and never finished...wild atlantic, lots of rain and wind and practically nothing else, it took until the last week in january for temperatures overnight to drop..this past week for what it's worth we had one pointless day of freezing rain. We are two thirds of winter done now and well into the final third. Some one asked who is to say it won't go on to rival winter 2010? Well I am actually. You can offer all the easterlies you want, nice if you live in the east or south east or 25/30 miles from the coast, but i think we are almost at the cut off point here in south of the region. If it's going to happen, its pointless pointing and saying 240 or 144, you know how well that goes...it does not as this winter as already proven...or i should autumn! What a truly dismal attempt at something called winter. This is for my area, not for other parts of the country..as i feel it would be pointless to talk about areas i know nothing about, all i know and care about is my immediate area and I am very sad it turned out this way...thats why i am looking forward to spring and summer so we can get them out the way :p
    Thanks HC, it's a good job I'm pretty thick skinned though. Good too see at least some of you can actually read what I wrote, rather than assume I meant something different. :)

    ZoomButt.gif


  9. So the Ribble Valley has never seen a sustained cold spell in mid-late February or into March? What about 2006, 2005, 1986, 1947 etc.? February is statistically as cold as January, I believe actually slightly colder overall, with March colder than December in general. Perhaps people's view of when we can get wintry weather has been skewed by the exceptional early winter cold of the last 2 winters.

    I already stated in another thread that 86 was an exception, as for 47, well before my time but that's still only two.

  10. It depends on what your expectations are. I think most people who are snow fans if by middle February have seen so little in the way of snow would be grateful of another late Feb-early March 2005 spell again.

    Its funny you say Feb 1986 because yes it was very cold and there were snowfalls during that month but it wasn't a snowfest. Infact you could argue that there were more notable snowfalls during the late Feb-early March 2005 spell than during Feb 1986.

    True it wasn't a snowfest, but it was a lengthy cold spell with some lying snow. For me as we approach March I'm looking forward to longer days and some spring warmth, with the occasional cold snap thrown in. I've a feeling that this spring will be cold and unsettled unfortunately.

  11. 1986? Sub freezing days and snowfall in the last third of the month.

    In recent years 2004 and 2005 had decent cold spells at the end of Feb/start of March and 2006 had a great March.

    86 was, but 2004 and 2005 certainly wasn't around here. By delivering the goods I mean a lengthy cold spell with lying snow. Just doesn't happen that often, in the latter stages of February.

  12. Winter 2011/12 R.I.P

    Another carrot being dangled before our eyes, as in heights over Greenland, are now being delayed somewhat going off this mornings output. I still believe that by the time heights become favourable, we'll be entering the latter stages of February. Who cares by then, the facts speak for themselves, how many cold spells have there been at the latter end of February, that have delivered the goods?


  13. What an INSANE thread to make, who is to say this month won't go on rival December 2010 or Jan 2010...or perhaps even more severe months?

    We just don't know, but right now a decent percentage of the country has seen settling snow today. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this winter ends up coming in at least average now in terms of the CET...

    We require a month around the 1.8C mark (don't know exactly) and with the models trending colder again and a sub zero first 4 days I think we are trending in the right direction for that sort of figure.

    There have been plenty of winters that are already worse then this one...but people clearly can't think of things objectivly...its always IMBY syndrome it seems and over-reacting.

    Reminds me of the 2010 hurricane season, such a slow first half with alot of rubbish, people doubted the forecasts and started talking about the season being a bust and not doing anything...2nd half was one of the most active ever...could end up the same with this winter.

    But most people judge winter by what happens IMBY. True February may deliver, but as my opening statement stated, IMBY it's too late for anything long lasting.

  14. Some of my NW colleagues might like to contribute to this thread. For me this winter is on par with any of the mild and snowless winters of years gone by, the cold spell this week just about sums up this winter in this part of the woods. Altogether this winter I've recorded six frosts, and one days snow, that was in December prior to Xmas and resulted in a 1cm covering which lasted four hours.

    Even the winters prior to the last two were significantly better then this, and before some remind me that it's early February, halt right there. The coming week brings much the same as previous months, rain, grey skies, and maybe a frost if we get lucky. That then takes us into the middle of the month, with more promises of jam tomorrow with that elusive Northern blocking .But by the time this takes hold we'll be into the latter stages of February, and by then any so called wintry weather is really not worthwhile, as the sun is far too strong for any snow that does fall and manage to accumulate. So all in all I'll put this winter in my top two worst of all time, and I'm 48.


  15. It's got to the point were I couldn't care less now regarding any cold spell/snap, This week has been a massive letdown, which adds insult to injury for the appalling period prior to this non event. I don't care what the teleconnections are showing, until that Azores high buggers off we will be reduced to cold snaps. Roll on Spring. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.png


  16. I'm sorry. but this is a perfect example of why I've struggled to have the patience to follow many of the threads on here for quite a while now. The actual forecast is excellent in as much as it is detailed, with decent reasoning to back it up. However, the opening phrase - 'anything remotely resembling summer materialising in the immediate future' - immediately set me grinding my teeth. Even over the coming week we have temperatures for large parts of the country ranging between 18c and 22c, with light winds, and periods of sunshine. OK, rain, (mostly in the form of showers), is also present, but honestly, if that kind of synopsis isn't pretty indicative of a UK summer, then what is ? If it isn't 'remotely resembling summer', which of the other three seasons does this weather resemble ???

    Maybe I'm getting old, but to my mind more and more posts on here seem to need to include at least one 'headline grabbing' phrase, and I for one would prefer it if they didn't !

    Obviously some peoples perception of summer is wall to wall sunshine and 30c temps, maybe a simple geography lesson wouldn't go amiss for these people. Posted Image
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