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UV-RAY

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Posts posted by UV-RAY

  1. I think the ecm is just getting worse run by run in my opinion'!!especially 850s wise!!this morning it was showing 850s of -8 to -10 around 144 hours amd now its just shlwing -6!!what the hells happening!!

    The same that's been happening throughout winter, ECM leads the way but the GFS is having none of it, then the GFS joins the party only for the ECM to start downgrading everything.
  2. A true Easterly bringing dry air from the continent would not pick up much moisture over the north sea , then we would get sun to the west of high ground

    Me too ,The wife and i have been into Liverpool today and whilst the wind was a bit chilly it was quite pleasant in the sun..Roll on Spring

    Depends on the time of the year, even during the 80's not one of those easterly outbreaks during the winter months brought sunshine.
  3. I think, although its only one run, the pessimism is due to the last few ECM runs looking like bringing a prolonged cold spell, whilst the 12z looks like a brief few days event. Bearing in mind the other progged "easterlies" this winter from the ECM, we are rather suspicious this will be another false dawn; that is, as we near the hi-res further downgrades. A recent tweet sums it up:

    weatherschool

    Midday ECMWF nowhere near as cold, a brief dip but then rising again, see http://t.co/tBlg9Ihs #ukweather

    14/02/2013 19:47

    post-14819-0-44343500-1360873866_thumb.g

    The ensembles should guide us to whether this is just another short colder interlude, and another ECM garden path we have gone too far up.

    Indeed, could we be heading up the same garden path yet again. Hopefully we will see the long awaited retrogression towards Greenland before May.rofl.gif

    ZoomButt.gif

    ZoomButt.gif

  4. Well there goes another snow to rain slushfest of an event, it really has been a poor winter for these neck of the woods for both cold and snow events. Hopefully we get some much needed sunshine in the coming weeks/months, as I'm fed up of grey laded and damp skies. Here's to Spring/Summer 2013, may you at least bless us with some sun, warmth and thunderstorms.

  5. I think I'll just take solace in the fact that, whatever 'epicness' any particular model might be showing, the weather will just do whatever it does...For all the 'stellar runs' we've seen, so far this winter, none has actually materialized...

    Indeed RP, how many times has this forum gone into meltdown only to find the actual event is a non event. Back to the models and I'm actually looking forward to some dry and frosty weather which the ECM is suggesting, I 'm not particularly bothered where the high sets up as long as it brings sunshine.
  6. Sorry Nick but have to disagree, the cold spells this winter have delivered pretty cold temps at times and if continued overall will post a below average winter. Its the way it goes sometimes, it culd have been a lot better..yes, it could have been a lot worse...yes. We are 50+ degrees north but also in the path a gulf stream.

    BFTP

    But not widespread cold temps Fred, due to any cold not being able to back far enough West. Yes some have seen some very low minima's and it certainly could have been a lot worse, but with the NH being primed for cold outbursts it was disappointing too say the least that the majority of the UK couldn't tap into any deep cold.
  7. Really? December was below average for much of the north, and there were a few snow events in the first half of the month. I know you didn't have a good spell in January, but much of England, Wales and parts of Scotland had a superb 2 week spell. Tomorrow looks very interesting for parts as well.

    The atlantic is as strong as Man City's defence- if there was any time for the block to push through, retrogress and bring in the cold, it's now.

    Lol, as strong as Man City's defence. December came in around average for the month and January did deliver snow for quite a few. But we was never able to tap into any deep cold pool throughout due to heights not being able to back West far enough. It's been a relatively poor winter for a lot of areas for cold, around these parts we are running at average to just above in terms of temp and well below average in terms of snowfall and frosts. The synoptic profile in the NH has been fantastic, unfortunately for us we haven't been able to get the best out of this for large parts of this winter.
  8. The fact is that all the models have their ups and downs, the ecm has been very good in the build up to the current coldish spell whereas the gfs appeared to be clueless, however, the ecm was predicting something a lot more severe than we are likely to end up with whereas the gfs was never really buying it at any stage and jumped onboard only recently but now it seems the ecm is slipping a bit and the gfs could be about to enter a purple patch of it's own, I keep optimistic that the cold block can deliver a knockout blow to the rather listless atlantic next week and find a way to a more severe spell in the last few weeks of winter.

    i admire you optimism Frosty but I'm struggling too see where such a cold spell will come from. We have the same problem as we've had all winter despite favourable Synoptics, maybe towards the end of this month we'll finally get heights in the right place but by then we'll be looking at making a silk purse out of a sows ear.
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