UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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It looks like the knives are out in AGW blogger land as that unbiased and highly imaginative site Tamino sets it sights on Judith Curry. Now who would you believe a respected and open minded climate scientist or a political motivated blogger?
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Excellent post and great to see you posting again on a regular basis TEITS, as usual it's informative for both newcomers and old hands alike. Hope your keeping well.Morning. The simple answer is us members can afford to be less cautious than the Met O. Take todays output for example. Now for days I have been saying the Met O forecast appears out of kilter with the output and this is especially true today. What is happening in the output is the models have backed away from what appeared at first to be a brief E,ly followed by milder W,lys. The output has been trending towards a more prolonged E,ly due to the block being stronger followed by sliding LPs. Take for example the ECM at +168. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif What we have here is a low pressure moving SSE rather than W-E. This is a snow event as the fronts will be encountering cold air already over the UK but due to the track it will also pull in colder air on its N flank. Another trend im beginning to see is at +240 the models are wanting to increase heights towards Greenland. So in summary the main theme of todays output is a stronger block to our NE, Sliding LP systems.
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I'm slowly coming around to the fact we maybe looking at a pattern change to something colder next week, it does look messy though with quite a mixture of rain, sleet and snow. I'm not so sure on the MetO medium term forecast as I feel they are underplaying the potential for cold and snow in the 7-15 day timescale, a few more positives over these last 48 hours for cold now we just need to see these at +72 hours.
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Snow, Sleet, Hail, Rain and Lightning here, none of this was forecasted for lower levels today, current temp 3.2c.
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they disprove of any dissenting voice regardless of their expertise in climate science, and yet approve of all non scientific findings by the like of the WWF and Greenpeace.I see the other sides counter is to deride the man and bring up old hidtoric conjecture that has no proof but relies on unabased character assasination to disprove someones views unbelievable
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No us up North, as we have to endure copious amounts of rain year after year season after season.Rain doesn't bother me in winter because as long as its cold rain because when your wearing a coat your ok, that said it doesn't excite me either. I think that should read 'us brits' TBH.
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All pay homage to the rains, again! Yes Feb91 us northerners view rain as part and parcel of everyday life so having to discuss potential rains in the MOD thread is a little taxing to say the least.This attitude against people looking for snow and not paying attention to rain is getting on my wick now. WOW its going to rain, it rains in my location about half the days in the year, granted not as heavy as lately but anyone saying this winter hasn't been boring I cannot believe, we had it all the way through the 90s and 00s so whats interesting about it????
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Ibdeed Steve, I think I was a tad careless with my choice of words.HI S.Inqu- I think its a case of choose to ignore as opposed to not care. I must admit whilst I have seen the flooding footage on TV ( & im sure its very bad for those in it) I am left feeling a little bit- is that it,...... I know, for the minority of people its a horrific experience- however the same can be said for all types of weather extremes in the UK,- be that snow, rain, FOG, lightning etc- All scenarios have the ability to produce life threatening conditions, & the weather will be what it be without our impacts- Its been a long mild wet winter & people are now skipping over the storms & rain- no matter how impactful they look in search of something more seasonal which for some just include some dry & cold weather- s Ironically the type of weather that people look for on here & regularly want to see happen is as life threatening ( if not more so ) for more of the general public that loaclised flooding...
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And most people in Britain are gratefulSure, those affected by flooding don't want more rain, but most people don't want any snow (or cold weather) at all!Edit: and 50% of the UK has seen snow. That 95% of the population live in the other 50% of the country (where snow isn't normal) is besides the point. I think more than 50% of the UK will see snow in the next week. But not me.
But we don't care about most people in Britain as this is a weather forum and most on here in winter do care about cold and snow.
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Well we are are constantly told record warm November record Warm December bla bla bla..NASA AND NOAA confirm worlds temperatures are at standstill do Global Warmiing supporters understand the truth ?
http://t.co/Ii5wYIH2MyBut Keith in order to get tons more funding the lie has to continue, hence the big news regarding the heat in Oz being down to AGW when the record books show the same weather patterns from yesteryear. Remember the amount of jobs created by this runs into the millions, and like any addiction you'll see lies and deception continuing so that it can feed the habit.
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Assuming the JMA solution doesn't happen I think coldies will be best looking to the NW for cold air and potential snow
Indeed, forget looking East anything cold and wintry appears to my eyes to be heading from the NW.
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The thing is, those low heights around Greenland/Canada won't last forever. My suspicion is we'll see a fairly rapid rise in pressure around the Greenland locale once that PV shifts.....Now, this could feasibly be March time. We could end up in a situation where no-one wins with another cold spring...
And yes this is comparable to some of those late 90's/early 2000's winters
Indeed CC, and it's what I've been alluding to over the last few weeks on how this winter is very similar to those bad ones of the nineties and nougties.
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Actually BFTV, your the first one that has come out and said that and I would agree it would take quite a while to gather all the data and then reach a conclusion.The level of attribution we can assign climate change to each individual record would require years worth of study and investigation. Which is why nobody but yourself and 4wd seem intent on dragging climate change into threads where they're not needed. Hypocrisy?
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So are the warm records climate and the cold ones just weather. If so even more hypocrisy from those who like to manipulate the facts.
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Lol Ian, every word you speak is taken literally, in fact if you was to produce Wednesdays lottery numbers and say the same most would go and purchase a ticket expecting to win the jackpot.Not to be taken too literally (!!! Caution!!!) but here's modified UKMO-GM at T+144:
Screenshot_2014-01-21-23-32-19-1.png -
It may not be quite true but it's the obvious scenario going forward. Over the last 10 days or so we've seen a slight change in the overall NH pattern but the end result differs little from what we've endured thus far. Yes we have a strong block to our east and yes we have seen some disruption to the PV which has resulted in a more positive pattern for colder shots, but what we are still not seeing is a pattern conducive to a long lasting cold spell anytime soon and nor are we guaranteed one regardless of Stratospheric warmings and the MJO.Not quite true, even with a raging PV over Canada/Greenland you can still get heights close enough to the UK to bring cold weather. Just in this case we are literally just a couple of hundred miles away from very cold surface conditions and potential battleground events.
Not to say that won't change. The Arctic high looks set to reinforce that high to the north east, could it push west? Could we get a link (even briefly) between the Atlantic and arctic ridges. Both of those could push things in our favour.
Oh well with the block to the north east continuing to exist, my sanity levels will continue to drop to new depths (currently sub zero by my last check).... standard
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Good stuff four, I've always detested the way Skeptical science operates as it takes the stance that it's actually open to honest scientific debate, even when the actual truth is far removed from there mission statement, and what makes it even more amusing is the number of posters on here who use it as a reference for scientific facts.
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A disappointing ECM heralding a return to zonality after a brief flirtation with a colder pattern
Most concern will be with upcoming wet and stormy conditions on top of saturated ground rather than the odd bit of transitory sleet here and there.
GFS illustrates well
Later on the next system brings this
Not a lasting cold signal at all at the moment just wet, wet, wet.
Much like I alluded to early, cold snaps here and there but until we see favourable synoptics regarding the Strat, much ado about nothing really.
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Indeed Frosty I still fail to see the optimism of others for a cold spell, snaps here and there yes, but the main theme of a mobile Westerly regime in the longer term remains the favourite, unless there are any favourable developments regarding the Strat.In general terms there has been very little change to the met office outlook apart from a weak signal for high pressure to eventually build across the south so where does that leave us with a pattern change? I think the models so far today are showing more wintry potential than yesterday, especially the 12z output last night which pushed the cold further east but once again there has hardly been any movement from the mo with the type of disturbed pattern we had through dec and early this month being the form horse, so i'm assuming that mogreps is not showing anything significant in terms of snow & ice for the next 2-4 weeks.
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Tea leaves, Seaweed and Mystic Meg.
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Wrong thread, this isn't the it's climate if it's hot weather thread.
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Personally I think it's time we bit the bullet and put winter 13/14 to rest. Some may think this is an over reaction but in reality we're looking towards Feb at the earliest for any meaningful cold pattern setting up. I've not seen a single snowfall this winter, not one....and that ranks it up there with the very worst of the '90s dross....at least I saw the odd NW'ly Cheshire gap scenario back then.
Someone said the other day that this upcoming spell was 'not your average toppler'....well that's certainly true, it's not even a toppler scenario (which I would quite happily take right now to be honest).
As we progress through Feb, lying snow will be harder and harder to maintain and by March snowfall will not lie here...March 2013 taught me that- higher ground still fine though.
I'm with you Crew, it just feels like we are chasing shadows this winter and it just shows how poor this winter has been when we are getting excited about the prospects of some possible frontal snow.
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Agreed and that was my point, we may have a higher starting point but nothing can be ruled out and I wouldn't rule out the sun suddenly cranking up again.We are at a warmer starting point though. SSTs are warmer, the air is warmer, the Arctic is much warmer, the ice further north, etc., all important for winter cold. The coldest months on the CET record weren't the absolute coldest possible thogh, in fact, taking the daily mean record lows for December gives a pretty chilly average of -6.1C, quite a distance from the -0.8C in 1890. Being at a warmer starting point doesn't mean we can't record record cold months, but it does make the job a bit tougher.
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I would dispute any such claims as all of us are simply guessing, we could just as easily see a MM making such a sceniro a 80-90% certainty. Remember all this talk of starting points being warmer now then back then is nonsense, just look at what happened during December 2010, so on that basis anything is possible even the sun waking up from its slumber unexpectedly cannot be ruled out.Note the three key points as far as the effect on climate goes according to Mike Lockwood,
[*]There is a 10 to 20% chance that the sun will be in Maunder Minimum conditions by 2054 or so. Conversely, there is presumably an 80 to 90% chance that it won't.
[*]Even if it is, it will only take five years or so for temperatures to get to where they would have been without the lull in the sun.
[*]If the sun changes as suggested it may affect the jet stream, bringing cold snaps during the northern hemisphere winters.
Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.
in Model Discussion Archive
Posted
Wise words Nick, but do drug addicts wait around for their next fix. I think a wintry spell for some looks pretty nailed, now where that some will be could range from the bulk of the UK to the far NE of the country. What intrigues me is how we are seeing each attack from the West sliding further and further under the block, is it only a matter of time before we see a fully fledged easterly?