UV-RAY
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Posts posted by UV-RAY
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The research being carried out by Joanna Haigh on UV output is very enlightening. IMO this plays an important role in the poleward movement of the Hadley Pressure Cell over the last thirty years and it's interesting now that UV output has fallen that we are seeing this migrate back towards the Tropics.
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Edging closer and closer to a forgettable winter. The potential for a cold spell may well be there but nothing from the MetO to back this up with.
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I'm now more than convinced that any cold spell this winter will always be tantalisingly close but never quite make inroads across the UK. This winter certainly has all the hallmarks of a nineties, noughties winter which generally saw a block to our East with the cold remaining bottled up on the other side of the North Sea, whilst we were stuck under a trough out to our West. The west based QBO has certainly been the party pooper this winter combined with a raging PV, at least the pattern is more susceptible to colder PM incursions over the next week or so I suppose.
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Still no sign of an impending cold spell, changeable would be the key word.
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@BFTV. Michael Mann refuses to engage in a public debate so maybe he can lead the way and enlighten us all on such things as proxies, tree rings and the use of past temperature data from selected weather stations. He's refused so far, so maybe this could be his chance to fight the fight then?
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Interesting article of the not so unusual heatwave down under.
http://australianclimatemadness.com/2014/01/16/youd-think-wed-never-had-a-heatwave-before/
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Seems SI can't tell the difference between a 3 day cold snap and an 18 month extreme climate event( that includes warmest ever recorded winter and record warmest year that included the record highest temp ever recorded on the continent) that shows no sign of stopping ( early warnings already out for the sheep farmers to expect nino conditions in the NW of the country later in the year)?
In the U.S. Four linked us to an Article that has Misleaders linking a cold December to 'proof' that global cooling is here and yet in Ozz their misleaders are saying 18 months of 'weather' do not give any indication as to AGW???
SI says it's this thread that does such yet there are his folk making monkeys of themselves in the global media ( and not just these threads)...... such fun eh? Exactly the point you making Sceptical a 3 day cold snap?LOL Grey Wolf needs to look at the weather forecast for the USA !
Indeed Keith, GW and his followers on t'other thread seem to forget that the likes of Chile, Argentina, have also recorded record cold spells over the last few years and what North America experienced wasn't a 3 day snap, try telling that to anyone who lives there. Still we now know that as long as it's warm and wet weather then that will be climate and everything else just weather. The lunatics have not only taken over the asylum but now they are governing the world.
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Meanwhile the 06z GFS develops a slower upstream pattern, it's not good enough but a move towards the UKMO.
Quite bemused by some posts who have declared that an area of cold dense air sitting just to our east will blown away like a piece of paper in the wind.... I don't think so, that high has nowhere to go, you can't sink that too far until the cold pooling underneath it has weaken sufficiently, which is certainly not the case with the UKMO charts, the jet would get deflected well north.
I would agree but will we end up still on the wrong side of the block for the foreseeable, because I can't see any push westwards anytime soon.
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^^^ Thanks BA. The GEFS have been consistently saying no to next weekend's non-easterly and I thought we had got over this yesterday, till this morning's UKMO. However little support, so as you say an outside chance. The GEFS have now clustered (last two days) the D10 Atlantic Ridge as a sinker as the next wave of PV energy comes our way. It is good to hear that ECM are finally catching up with the GFS pattern for our region.
What happens next on the GEFS remains, like the ECM, varied, but the current main cluster is a stormy spell with a flatter flow (probably the GFS bias) so probably best to wait and see with regard to where we go from D12 +. So another two weeks of the Winter may go by to see if we can get a better pattern for cold, and waiting for a euro trough to run through the UK is not my ideal winter scenario as we can easily be on the wet side of that.
Its good to see that I am not the only one bemused by the ECM of late with sometimes it's whole suite amplifying the wrong pattern:
By Simon Keeling in Borth, Ceredigion 09:10hrs 19/01/2014
Temperature: 5.4 Weather: Sunny spells
Now I am frustrated!
The ECMWF is really beginning to hack me off.
Admittedly, other models have made errors too, but over the last couple of weeks the ECMWF seems to have gone from being the model of choice at medium ranges of 5 days or more, to an unreliable set of charts which occasionally predicts a hit of cold at days 9 and 10. (source)
+1
Maybe IF or someone else could clarify if there has been any changes to the programming of the ECM, something is amiss that's for sure.
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I've been waiting for a long time..far too long to post charts as magnificent as these from the Ecm 12z op run tonight, especially the T+216 & 240 charts with the 522 dam thicknesses. I pray the ecm is on the ball tonight because this is the stonking pattern change all us long suffering snow and cold starved peeps have been dreaming of, these charts are a thing of beauty.
come on...verify dammit, I want to see a snow flake, I will definately ramp this up if it gets closer
Lol Frosty, please give me plenty more of your enthusiasm as these last few weeks have taken their toll on mine and my energy reserves of cold ramping are in need of some much needed replenishing.
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So do we now have a consensus of what's weather is also climate now, because if we don't then why the hell are some on t'other thread linking the Aussie heat with climate when it was only t'other week when the same people were calling Americas record cold spell just weather. So can we have clarification on this, is it a case of climate is anything warm and wet whilst weather is anything cold.
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Right we have lots of "potential" but all of this is way out in FI, so whilst it's fine discussing this potential the chances of such charts actually looking like that cometh the hour are next to zero.
I agree that a pattern change seems likely towards the months end but what that pattern change is, is far from settled. Sorry to be so negative but this winter has been taxing to say the least so until we get cross model consensus at around +120 I'll remain sceptical.
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This may well be the case but I was referring to timings and if the MetO have called it right then that will take us to the 14th February, which would give us two more weeks of winter. On the Strat and MJO front we still need to see other variables play ball with us. So yes there is a window of opportunity within the next two weeks, but at this moment in time that's all it is, opportunity.Got to pick you up on this. The Met cannot say anything else at present because the models are not consistently picking up on a change - and unfortunately in some respects the Met seem unwilling to break away from model forecasts much at all. Modified fax charts are about as far as they are prepared to go in publicly challenging their model runs. But wiser heads that are a bit brighter than the models are seeing something else happening - and evidence is out there if you care to look, especially in the Strat and MJO forecasts. If predicting the weather was simply a case of reading the medium and long range model forecasts then not only would we have a different forecast every day, but we would be wrong time after time. And the chances are certainly not "receding". Absolutely without question they are increasing. However... none of us can say the cold weather WILL come. Last December;s failed Easterly which pretty much fooled everybody including the Met is a powerful reminder of this. So we must sit and wait and play the game of chance... but the chances of ice and snow into February are a damned sight higher than at any point so far through December or January. Chio deserves enormous credit for picking up on this back in November and going public in a big way on it via the official NetW forecast. Pretty good to be honest so far... because GP was one hell of an act to follow.
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Yep a consistent theme of cool zonal conditions with the Op on the cold side of the ENS suite again after an uncertain period as the blocking situation is resolved.
A sensible call from METO again with largely cold / mild oscillations & most precipitation to the NW indicating a zonal NW type flow neither desperately cold nor mild as such. Persisting right into mid February seems a good call.
Indeed, nothing to desperately cold and some us in the NW could see some snow at times but with the MetO thinking that this pattern could last until mid February the chances of a nationwide cold spell happening during the winter months are slowly receding.
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Yes Bobby, A cold N/W flow bringing snowfalls across the UK during the last week of Jan.
The JMA model was hinting at this but the overall trend was still of a mobile westerly set up, so any cold will be of the 1-2 day variety. I'll still take that though as compared to what we've endured thus far it will seem like nirvana.
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Latest GFS 8 day temperature anomaly shows the UK starting to become cooler
Normal temps left, expected temps right
These charts yo yo daily SS, tomorrow they'll be showing the majority of the UK being above average.
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I'm not so sure we'll see any heights over the Arctic influencing our little corner of the world, all eyes on the Azores high for me whilst which won't bring any bitter air masses this way at least it will settle things down nicely with frost becoming more widespread with time.
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Umfortunately it won't four as the goalposts will continually ne moved to fit the doctrine. Now we see figures of 2030 when catastrophic warming will resume but in the meantime on planet earth sane people are questioning the alleged consensus, and awkward questions aren't being addressed. Still that won't stop the war machine down at scaremonger central who will continue to draft irresponsible unsubstantiated dross.The global warming industry astro-turfers know no bounds, and must keep half a dozen threads live with endless links to obscure [it's worse than we thought!] stories.I do sometimes wonder how many jobs are dependent on coming up with all the endless [it's worse than we thought!] reports based on speculation the [it's worse than we thought!] dependent researchers have cobbled together on a daily basis.Eventually the message must get through it stopped warming 20 years ago.
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Personally the word potential is fast becoming tiresome, yes there's lots of potential in the output but this takes a giant leap of faith and that's one thing this winter has been lacking. For me the outlook really hasn't changed that much troughing over the UK and a block to our NE, I've said if before and I'll say it again but this winter as all the hallmarks of a nineties, noughties winter which produced similar Synoptics with a block to our NE which was always tantalising close but rarely delivered.
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Old Gray "cry" Wolf says in t'other thread that the UK is the biggest contributor to rising temps, allegedly caused by a gas. I'm doing my bit to contribute by carelessly filling up my Range Rover daily and reciting posts from the Manmade thread. Every little helps!
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You have to fancy bust really as the jet just looks to strong and aligned all wrong for anything in the way of sustained cold. I still feel we are looking at cold snaps rather than spells, still that's far better than anything else we've endured thus far.we know what should happen at day 8 but thats a big jet streak approaching the uk. too many 'big players' all bouncing around at the same time. could be 'boom'. could be 'bust'!
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For all the talk of Shannon Entropy and pattern changes, the MetO continue with a rather uninspiring outlook which takes us into the final leg of what is an awful winter for cold and snow.
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But anyway, absolutely no need to get into a flame war. We got plenty of stick for those summer forecasts, took it on the chin, admitted they didn't go to plan and learnt from it - end of story. Weather forecasters all get forecasts wrong, it's part of the job and the key is to learn from them and move forwards..
And that's how it should be Paul, you get it wrong and learn from those mistakes. Get it right and say nothing as the forecast says it all for you.
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After how this winter has panned out so far we seriously aren't dismissing another GFS run surely, have we learnt nothing from this winter at all. The ECM is to progressive with blocks to our East whilst the GFS is the same with troughs to our West, end result stalemate much as we are seeing now.
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Scepticism Of Man Made Climate Change
in Climate Change
Posted