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UV-RAY

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Everything posted by UV-RAY

  1. I'll await further confirmation before passing comment but if true then the implications could be far reaching.
  2. The research being carried out by Joanna Haigh on UV output is very enlightening. IMO this plays an important role in the poleward movement of the Hadley Pressure Cell over the last thirty years and it's interesting now that UV output has fallen that we are seeing this migrate back towards the Tropics.
  3. Edging closer and closer to a forgettable winter. The potential for a cold spell may well be there but nothing from the MetO to back this up with.
  4. I'm now more than convinced that any cold spell this winter will always be tantalisingly close but never quite make inroads across the UK. This winter certainly has all the hallmarks of a nineties, noughties winter which generally saw a block to our East with the cold remaining bottled up on the other side of the North Sea, whilst we were stuck under a trough out to our West. The west based QBO has certainly been the party pooper this winter combined with a raging PV, at least the pattern is more susceptible to colder PM incursions over the next week or so I suppose.
  5. Still no sign of an impending cold spell, changeable would be the key word.
  6. @BFTV. Michael Mann refuses to engage in a public debate so maybe he can lead the way and enlighten us all on such things as proxies, tree rings and the use of past temperature data from selected weather stations. He's refused so far, so maybe this could be his chance to fight the fight then?
  7. Interesting article of the not so unusual heatwave down under. http://australianclimatemadness.com/2014/01/16/youd-think-wed-never-had-a-heatwave-before/
  8. Indeed Keith, GW and his followers on t'other thread seem to forget that the likes of Chile, Argentina, have also recorded record cold spells over the last few years and what North America experienced wasn't a 3 day snap, try telling that to anyone who lives there. Still we now know that as long as it's warm and wet weather then that will be climate and everything else just weather. The lunatics have not only taken over the asylum but now they are governing the world.
  9. I would agree but will we end up still on the wrong side of the block for the foreseeable, because I can't see any push westwards anytime soon.
  10. +1 Maybe IF or someone else could clarify if there has been any changes to the programming of the ECM, something is amiss that's for sure.
  11. Lol Frosty, please give me plenty more of your enthusiasm as these last few weeks have taken their toll on mine and my energy reserves of cold ramping are in need of some much needed replenishing.
  12. So do we now have a consensus of what's weather is also climate now, because if we don't then why the hell are some on t'other thread linking the Aussie heat with climate when it was only t'other week when the same people were calling Americas record cold spell just weather. So can we have clarification on this, is it a case of climate is anything warm and wet whilst weather is anything cold.
  13. Right we have lots of "potential" but all of this is way out in FI, so whilst it's fine discussing this potential the chances of such charts actually looking like that cometh the hour are next to zero. I agree that a pattern change seems likely towards the months end but what that pattern change is, is far from settled. Sorry to be so negative but this winter has been taxing to say the least so until we get cross model consensus at around +120 I'll remain sceptical.
  14. This may well be the case but I was referring to timings and if the MetO have called it right then that will take us to the 14th February, which would give us two more weeks of winter. On the Strat and MJO front we still need to see other variables play ball with us. So yes there is a window of opportunity within the next two weeks, but at this moment in time that's all it is, opportunity.
  15. Indeed, nothing to desperately cold and some us in the NW could see some snow at times but with the MetO thinking that this pattern could last until mid February the chances of a nationwide cold spell happening during the winter months are slowly receding.
  16. The JMA model was hinting at this but the overall trend was still of a mobile westerly set up, so any cold will be of the 1-2 day variety. I'll still take that though as compared to what we've endured thus far it will seem like nirvana.
  17. These charts yo yo daily SS, tomorrow they'll be showing the majority of the UK being above average.
  18. I'm not so sure we'll see any heights over the Arctic influencing our little corner of the world, all eyes on the Azores high for me whilst which won't bring any bitter air masses this way at least it will settle things down nicely with frost becoming more widespread with time.
  19. Umfortunately it won't four as the goalposts will continually ne moved to fit the doctrine. Now we see figures of 2030 when catastrophic warming will resume but in the meantime on planet earth sane people are questioning the alleged consensus, and awkward questions aren't being addressed. Still that won't stop the war machine down at scaremonger central who will continue to draft irresponsible unsubstantiated dross.
  20. Personally the word potential is fast becoming tiresome, yes there's lots of potential in the output but this takes a giant leap of faith and that's one thing this winter has been lacking. For me the outlook really hasn't changed that much troughing over the UK and a block to our NE, I've said if before and I'll say it again but this winter as all the hallmarks of a nineties, noughties winter which produced similar Synoptics with a block to our NE which was always tantalising close but rarely delivered.
  21. Old Gray "cry" Wolf says in t'other thread that the UK is the biggest contributor to rising temps, allegedly caused by a gas. I'm doing my bit to contribute by carelessly filling up my Range Rover daily and reciting posts from the Manmade thread. Every little helps!
  22. You have to fancy bust really as the jet just looks to strong and aligned all wrong for anything in the way of sustained cold. I still feel we are looking at cold snaps rather than spells, still that's far better than anything else we've endured thus far.
  23. For all the talk of Shannon Entropy and pattern changes, the MetO continue with a rather uninspiring outlook which takes us into the final leg of what is an awful winter for cold and snow.
  24. And that's how it should be Paul, you get it wrong and learn from those mistakes. Get it right and say nothing as the forecast says it all for you.
  25. After how this winter has panned out so far we seriously aren't dismissing another GFS run surely, have we learnt nothing from this winter at all. The ECM is to progressive with blocks to our East whilst the GFS is the same with troughs to our West, end result stalemate much as we are seeing now.
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