Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

UV-RAY

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,600

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Posts posted by UV-RAY

    Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    May be good if you still get paid but I like most people don't and many can't afford to lose a day or mores  pay.

     

    I haven't enjoyed this winter though it is better than cold and snow but to me it is like an option of one leg amputated or two, would much prefered a mild and dry winter.

    I bet there's been quite a few who've missed work in the flooded areas though, as well as seeing there homes flooded and all there valuables lost, and I don't think for one minute they'll be saying "thank god it's mild".

    • Like 3

    Scepticism Of Man Made Climate Change

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    Indeed, it appears the warming biases  is rife within all climate models hardly surprising really given the fact that if your given a shedload of money to show an increasing warming trend, then you better deliver  a manipulated response to your paymasters. One does wonder on the outcome if we end up nowhere near the IPCC's lower scale of warming trend, because I for one feel that this is looking far fetched at this moment in time. Time will tell of course but the odds look stacked against any significant increase anytime soon.

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I think mild Winters tends to follow by wet and cool Summers. I hope this isn't the case. We did have a hot Summer last year though but the odds of a wet one is pretty high atm.

    I think we'll see a coldish March and April followed by a warm May and June. Thereafter cool and wet, another hunch but hopefully we'll see some warm and sunny weather for at least 8 weeks of the year, which I'll take right now.

    Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I think perhaps we have to wave the white flag here on this winter, its just one of those which we have seen plenty of in the past although as it stands now this probably takes the Oscar because there were a few opportunities which could have mediated its horror rating. It wasn't the relentless PV to the north which has ruined many a winter but the  PV latched into ne Canada. Overall today solid support across the models for troughing sitting to the west of the UK, block to the east and a stalemate scenario for the foreseeable future. At this point if I was in the UK and offered a late winter spell like those in 2005 and 2006 I'd take it, even though that came at the end of February. The problem is at this moment in time even thats a stretch, and with the strat warming also giving up the ghost theres very little to see what could change the pattern. No doubt some good synoptics will appear in March when the feeling will be if only! So I think we should just expect the worst as we go into February and hope that something eventually does change.

    Indeed Nick, time to move on from fanciful thoughts of cold and snow, what would be truly amazing would be seeing these conditions persist throughout February as I' don't recall a winter from the 40 or so that I can remember well, where all three months were mild and wet without a single spell of cold weather lasting beyond 24 hours. I think this year we could well be seeing a cold late March/April with frequent Northerlies, similar to those awful winters of yesteryear.
    • Like 4

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Latest EC Monthly runs-up striking positive temp anomalies across all Europe/UK progressively through February after chilly opening gambit, with ensemble means by w/e 26th showing low heights to N/W, (weaker) high to S (Iberia) and SW flow dominating. It's been on the money since early December, so performance through these last few weeks of winter will be very interesting indeed.

    Looks like Piers Corbyns February forecast won't be far off the mark if it pans out like that. A thoroughly depressing winter of floods and gales with the only saving grace of spring being around the corner.
    • Like 4

    The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I think our problems arise from the far side of the U.S.? The High Pressure over the north Pacific has just stayed and stayed. Run the Jet over this 'block' and then into the Rockies and you set up the peturbations that lead to repeated cold plunges for the U.S. and an energised jet over the Atlantic ( driven by the potential between hot/cold over the U.S./Atlantic).

     

    When the H.P. loses it's impacts over there then the ripple down impacts here will reflect it? As it is? well it appears there for the duration. How long has that High been parked there and what 'ENSO' phase does it best fit with?

    A good question, I would say something similar to one of those  awful ( for cold and snow ) nineties, early noughties winters GW, possibly even mid 70S?

    • Like 2

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I'm surprised there haven't been suicide attempts after reading some of the posts in here?!I've said it a lot but I'll say it again, I went from 1994 until 2009 before I saw lying snow here, I went 7 years without a flake falling.. I'm a total all-rounder when it comes to the weather, love snow, love storms, love gales, love torrential rain etc.. I don't get the level of disappointment I read on here, yes, it's a bit of a sod that it has been so wet & windy but what can you do? Get on with life and wait for the Winter next year, you'll see plenty more!I'm neither a mildie or a coldie but one thing I have noticed, coldies set themselves up for a fall very easily, just the slightest whiff of something cold on an FI chart and I get scared to look on the forum :lol:When it all backtracks and disappears, it turns in to royal rumble sometimes! The act of model watching on the WWW enhances the disappointments because back in the day, you just watched a TV forecast and hoped for the best, the interwebz has folks nitpicking to the tiniest degree, I fall foul of it too, it cannot be helped. :)There's obviously still time left this winter but you've also got many more Winters to come

    Lol, you reside in Dorset so I'm surprised you didn't have to wait longer for snow.
    • Like 2

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Morning all :) Extraordinarily downbeat mood this morning on the basis (it seems) of one set of Operational output and a Strat not shattering into fragments on request. Please remember that we are only going out as far as mid-Feb even now and it's extraordinary that after routinely castigating every forecast he has ever made, somebody has just quoted a Piers Corbyn forecast as though it were the unvarnished truth. If we don't get any snow this winter, so be it. I'm a long way from throwing in any metaphorical towel as I never thought anything much would happen before mid-February. It might do some people on here a bit of good to step back from over-analysing every scrap of output for a few days and come back with some renewed perspective. As I said on the Winter Discussion thread yesterday, many winters have had March snowfall after a mild core period and it can even snow in April under the right conditions. I do think blocking will become the key player from the middle of February onward but I don't know it will be cold or mild (Corbyn's theory presumably). My gut feeling says it may be akin to March 2013 with the block just to the north or north-west of the British Isles - too close for snow but able to feed in a much colder flow. To assume on the basis of one or two set of outputs that it's going to be a warm February and to support that theory with the forecasts from a widely-derided pundit seems absurd in the extreme. Tamara has said many times the stratospheric vortex will have one more period of dominance before it weakens finally and we are moving into that period at the end of the week. That period will last at least a fortnight but I don't know what will happen after yet but it will be different to what we have seen since early December - will it be a late winter or an early spring is the real question.

    His forecasts aren't as bad as you may think, you have to subscribe to get the details but he's no worse than any other long range forecaster if not better than all of them. As for another cold March well Piers would be right then as March is Spring.

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The one thing thats surprised me this winter is just the inconsistency of the signal, last winter when we had that SSW the actual warming remained pretty much on track from the far reaches of FI. This year theres such wild swings in the temperatures shown especially at the 10hpa level.

    A stab in the dark here Nick but I wonder if the uptick in solar output has been responsible for this?
    • Like 1

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The death bell tolls for winter 2013/14, the background signals, blah, blah, blah are irrelevant as that little piece of vortex anchored over Canada looks like going nowhere fast anytime soon. Piers Corbyn forecasted an exceptionally warm February and whilst I can't see that happening just yet, I do think we'll be looking at milder rather than colder weather for next month, just a hunch.

    • Like 3

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    To be quite frank the words patience and potential are beginning to grate me with too many banking all our hopes on a SSW which may or may not lead us all to riches. I said a couple of weeks back that this winter bears all the hallmarks of a nineties, noughties winter when there was a cold block to our NE whilst we sat in no mans land with the promise of impending cold, which never came.

    • Like 4

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    This Winter is shaping out to be worse for settling snow than Winter 11-12. In that Winter we had a covering one morning in middle of December and then a heavier fall on the 4th February and that was it all Winter.

    Cant argue there as it really is turning into a mare if it's cold and snow you like, mind you Gaz it's not been a good one for the mildies either really with far too much wind and rain on a daily basis. I'll be glad to see the back of this winter and hopefully we get a warm dry spring so we can all dry out from this wretched winter.

    Manmade Climate Change Discussion

    in Climate Change

    Posted · Edited by Sceptical Inquirer

    In all honesty SI I had a look around to see exactly what 'grouping' both my , and other peoples, opinion of 'Me', placed me?

     

    I must admit that there is a duality here in that I'm a very Jolly/Zany/Caring individual with (still at 50) a hell-bent party mentality. The realisation of the threats of overpopulation, energy crisis, climate change, Pandemic and global conflict do not impact my thirst for life. Were I to pamper one of Pete's favourite pass-times I'd say it was my Piscean nature.................................... (Soz Pete......could'nt resist!)

    Besides the climate change threat GW, I pretty much agree with you on all these issues. If we take away all the ballyhoo and posturing on these forums then I guess most of us fear much of the same things.

    • Like 2

    December Summaries

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Sceptical Inquirer

    December 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary By Christopher C. BurtPublished: 8:00 PM GMT on January 18, 2014December 2013 Global Weather Extremes SummaryDecember 2013 saw a variety of temperature extremes both cold and warm and in some cases at the same locations. The most notable was the heat wave in Argentina. However, in general, extreme variability was the theme thanks to extreme amplitudes of the jet stream. Severe flooding affected portions of Brazil, Kenya, and the Middle East where a cold snap and rare heavy snow also occurred in some locations.Below are some of the month’s highlights.http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/article.html?entrynum=234

    Agree with all of that but they somehow missed the extreme cold in North America knocker? Ignore that I clicked on the wrong link it's showing, but why isn't it a headline for your link?

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Sceptical Inquirer

    pYour response is illeterate. Are you agreeing with me?

    Your response is illogical, if you wish to learn on how to read the models then following the likes of Steve Murr and Nick Sussex along with a few others will put you in good stead. Saying it will rain in the MOD thread, "no matter how many charts you post" isn't going to win you many friends or help you understand how to read the models.
    • Like 5
×
×
  • Create New...