UV-RAY

By the same token they aren't forecasting mild and zonal either, but what they are forecasting is a higher than normal level of confidence in it turning colder during the second half of this month.

So many things wrong with this post, first off solar output is spouted by far too many who haven't the foggiest on what they are talking about, incidentally output at this moment in time is relatively high for this cycle but it's more to do with UV output so may I suggest you read up on Joanna Haighs findings. The rest of your post just highlights all the necessary pieces of jigsaw that is needed in order to get cold to these shores. Right back to the model output and IMO nothing has changed a pattern change remains on the cards from around the '10th, the only thing which is up for grabs is how cold and how long.

All good points you raise BFTV, I think we could be looking at combination all the points raised by the both of us. Happy New Year by the way.

Hi. BFTV. Yes these factors also play a big part but we still have to see an increase in ice and a decrease in sea temps for ice to expand in the way it has down there.

Lol, what is scientific about getting stuck in ice that shouldn't be there.

Also did you notice some of the media coverage on this where they cited unusual weather conditions as the excuse instead of being trapped in ice.

I've read this article before and the main point they seem to skirt around is for ice to expand we need the surrounding oceans to be colder. There is no doubt in my mind that Antarctica isn't experiencing any warming either in the interior or the peninsula knocker, yes we have seen big break offs around the parts of peninsula but IMO these are down to an increase in snow and ice and warmer currents which are normal anyway. The comment was a joke knocker, nothing more nothing less.

Another change to the wording but the main theme is one looking to turn colder.

Well perhaps you have an alternative explanation for increased ice then. Keep taking the cat pills!

Personally I find it highly amusing how a bunch of freeloaders became stuck in ice that shouldn't have been there. Let this be a lesson boys and girls that Mother Nature doesn't give two hoots for political ideologies and hidden agendas. Antarctica ice is advancing if anything and obviously for it to advance then the waters around Antarctica must be colder now than previously.

Indeed and why I have an extremely low opinion of Hansen as I feel he does a disservice to science in general regardless of your thoughts on AGW.

For me it was a terrible January, February and a barnstorming March. April and the first half of May weren't to clever either but from June we had probably the best Summer for over a decade around these parts with this extending into Autumn, unfortunately I like stormy Autumns. December has been, err wet with the occasional dusting of snow but very little in the way of frost.

Another dismal day here, it's been raining non stop since the early hours. I've almost forgotten what sun light actually looks like, roll on a pattern change come mid month, hopefully.

Agreed, it is the probably the best out there and the odd time it has picked up on a trend, but we've still a long way to go yet in producing accurate LFR. The Strat thread is like a breath of fresh air come the winter, it's not infallible but it's certainly the future of making LRF during the winter months.

Well that would explain why the discrepancy then, as the ECM32 are pointless after 15 days regardless of some defending them.

Nope I'm pretty certain that the monthly updates are nigh on useless the majority of the time, like I I've said I've the upmost respect and admiration for their 10-15 day forecasts but the monthlies, pffttt!

Indeed, and I personally don't rate the monthlies one bit along with the ECM32 which they utilise to compose them. They are no more likely to get the long range stuff right then most who post on the MOD thread, now up until 10-15 days they are second to none.

Why use white on bloody white, after a minute I had to kick it into touch as it was straining my eyes.

Indeed, if it's got to be mild then lets have a bit of sunshine rather than storm after storm.

Now that is a good point and one I would agree with GP, but not all peer reviewed science can be relied upon, more so in the world of closed shop science which appears rife within climates science. I think we best move on from here as we are way off the topical discussion for this thread.

Take no notice , Tis not your fault some have the sense of humour of a dead rat. Back tot he model output and I'm more than pleased with today's viewing and a few of us have been championing this sort of set up over the last couple of weeks, this was before any potential Strat warming. IMO anywhere from the North. Midlands Northwards could see some snow over the next 10 days.

Looks as if the MetO are now slowly climbing on board the cold express with the prospects of significantly colder weather possible towards the latter end of January.

Looks like the MetO are also seeing the potential for much colder weather towards the latter part of January. It's been a fantastic thread again this year, with more and more new members offering some first rate analysis alongside our established members. Great work , even if I do have to constantly cross reference to the opening page to try and grasp a lot of the terminology used.

I think the two main points for a route to cold are the jet digging South on the NE/SE trajectory and the lowering of heights over Europe, these for me are crucial regardless of whether we have HLB at this moment in time. The trend is for colder than average temps from around the 10th onwards and with plenty of toughing in favourable positions then it's only a matter of time before somewhere from the North Midlands Northwards sees low level snowfall, and then who knows maybe a push from the East.

But any potential pattern change looks to be from the 10th onwards, the operative word being potential though.