kold weather

CryoraptorA303 Whats most impressive about 76 is just how exceptionally stable that heatwave was for particularly Cs/Midlands. The fact we've still not had anything even in that heatwaves ballpark in terms of sheer longevity of the hot pattern since then is quite telling of how exceptional the set-up was. In the CET it really does still stand out against even modern heatwaves. The first 10 days of July 76 in the CET is exceptional by any standards, even when compared to the likes of Aug 03 or Aug 20, both of which had exceptional spells of heat. It feels like alot of the really hot blasts we are getting are being triggered by an Azores low drifiting east of the usual mean and suckering up very hot air from SW Europe. Problem is that pattern is usually too unstable to hold for that sort of time (2-3 weeks as in 76) and usually breaks down into more typical SW/W pattern. At some point 76 crown will go for everything, even just by virtue of a warming world causing the synoptics not to need to be quite as extreme anymore. When that will be remains to be seen.

The other thing that isn't really being talked about is the increase of 'tropical nights' which has a really detrimental impact on health if sustained. In a world with higher sea temperatures and an atmosphere with more moisture this maybe an underestimated problem as it does not stand out quite as much as 35-40c days.

Neilsouth realistically this probably warranted a small yellow warning given saturated ground and some areas have been under mod-heavy rain for 3-4hrs now.

Fwiw June 23 was below average for rain using ewp: First half was very dry to be fair. Se England shows identical pattern as well. From about 10th May to 1th June we had about 5mm on average. That doesn't change anything though that this has been.a very wet period Indeed I'd argue we will still have a shot at having the all time wettest 12 month period ad both May and June were below normal on the ewp, providing this March doesn't flip to dry.

What is the 61-90 average for March? Such a tricky month to call as the transition can be quite drastic towards the end of the month, you really do need a fairly solid cold spell at some point in the first 2 weeks otherwise given how warm the waters around us are we will probably cruise into our 26th (I think?) out of 27 above 61-90 month.

LetItSnow! Its a little bit concerning should we get a 3rd year in the 11c ballpark. We seemed to shift up into the 10.x in the 00s and basically never looked back barring 2010, I'm beginning to think we maybe starting to see a similar kick upwards into the 10.8-11.4c range where we basically won't deviate far from that bar the odd freak cold month relative to the mean that might still happen at times (see Dec 10, or to a lesser extent Mar 13). 2007 does prove though that these patterns can flip, but a very mild month within the winter set certainly helps to increase the likelyhood of a 11c year again.

Last summer was also predictable as it broadly evolved in a similar pattern to 1957, the ENSO evolution in particular tracked very nicely. Sure enough June was a corker like 57 then the rest of the summer didn't continue that pattern set in June. When it comes to la nina transitions, it's not the actual transition that is important but the power in which the pattern shifts. @Summer8906 I think there has been a noticeable amount of setups involving upper troughing to our SW and HP nearby to our east. That always runs the risk of funneling up cloudy humid stuff. Some summers the hp has been located close by to the UK (18 being best example) others like 21 have had the mean low too close to the south which have made it very wet, and then sometimes a mix which can allow exceptional heat bursts when the low oscillates in the correct way (Aug 20) but sometimes also comes closer for a time. Only 2018 was that classic riding HP from Azores into Scandinavia, the others have often had the LP to our SW HP to the N/NE combo, often warm, but often cloudy, particularly for coastal areas.

Bit hard to deny it at least on a weather forum when you've broken 63 heat records in just over 9 years and just 1 cold record in the same period of time, or when your getting a 10 year average February CET that is now higher than the old March average. @John S2 I don't even think its an irrational hatred, people just don't want to have to undertake change, or don't like feeling like they 'have' to change and like to be in control of their situation. Governments coming in an imposing laws to make change rubs those types of people up totally the wrong way and they tend to be the type to rebel.

Weather-history Currently upto 1305mm rolling 12 months. Won't be far away from that record come the end of the month, must be 2nd or 3rd place ever I'd have guessed? March 23 was pretty wet so we will probably slip a little once that leaves, but a a modestly wet month in March still puts us within shot of that all time record given both May/June were below average months last year, if either one comes in decently wet it'd again make things very tight.

Today could get us into the top 10 wettest Febraury, even though the spatial area covered by the rain isn't too large, it will give some stations quite large totals which will help to boost the average up even despite small coverage. Still some uncertainties regarding the evolution of 27-29th, looks like two weak fronts followed by a stronger cold front pushing through at some point on the 29th. At the moment it feels like the landing range is somewhere between 140-150mm, still enough uncertainty that a little either side is also possible, I do think though that the all time record from 2020 is safe now, would take a rather large shift in the synoptic pattern to get us to average over 40mm between now and the 29th. Some in the south may manage that, but the vast majority won't.

Roger J Smith 126.7mm as of today, top 10 is absolutely nailed on now, its just how high up that ranking list we go. Tomorrows front is going to give decent rain but perhaps quite limited in area, then it will be all down to fronts from the west and exactly how quickly they come in on the 29th/1st.

⁸ CryoraptorA303 I agree with you roughly on the dates but i just think you cant just ignore the 4 hottest dates ever recorded being recorded on the 18-19th July. Therefore I'd extend your dates through to say 18th July to 10th August. In reality though we are debating miniscule differences! Interestingly June 2019 is probably the hottest upper pattern I've ever seen, pretty similar in heat to July 22 (850hpa of just under 26c recorded) but the thickness was even more impressive and it was coming at ansolute peak isolation. A pro met worked out that using typical lapse rates would have led to about 42c. Unfortunately we imported a wicked north sea undercut. That would have been exceptional! Anyway this is veering into summer territory. One record I'm keeping a close eye on is the May CET, we've nor really even been that close in recent years and like Feb 1779 is one of those old holdups. Sometimes those extreme temperatures people out feel unrealistic, but I think 10 years ago 21c+ in Feb would be unrealistic, 40c in July would be unrealistic. Pretty much every month there is a 4-6c record broken somewhere, so a May 35c is possible in theory.

CryoraptorA303 im not sure that would have made any real difference between the date it happened and early August. Looking at the top 10 hottest days they all but one fall between 18th July and 10th August, interestingly 4 of the hottest days seem to be on either the 18th or 19th July, perhaps fluke but maybe suggestive of a peak heat date? I'd also argue that between those dates any gain in sea temperatures (real marginal by that point to.be honest) is probably matched by an increase in night time length.

I actually think the July 22 heatwave was more exceptional than some are letting on, its utterly smashed the record hottest CET day, beat out the previous record comfortably as well. As other have said if it came along a touch later we'd have probably gotten a little higher. Then again you could argue we would not have had such an absurdly warm night time base to work from so the end result may have been the same. I think what made the July heatwave particularly exceptional was it was a 2 day blast, it easy to forget that the day before was a near record breaker in itself. I think it sits either at no.2 or no.3 in terms if CET days. The setup is nearly so loaded and progressive to get the heat in that to have it last 36hrs at its peak is what's real impressive to me. @Dark Horsesince Jan 2015 we've had 1 cold record and 63 heat records. To say the gun is loaded to heat is an understatement.

We could definately use a fairly prolonged drier than normal spell now, 12 month mean is now running close to record levels of wet.

WYorksWeather personally I still don't think it felt warm even on Thursday, the sun wasn't quite strong enough for that imo, but it did feel very pleasant and fir a few hours in the afternoon you could easily bin the coats and feel comfortable.

I'm sure the 76 record will go at some point, the June record max probably just needs the right setup as well. The 32c record though I think may prove quite stubborn, I'm not sure we've been even close, even in recent hot summers. The same synoptic patterns which are dragging up the extreme heat of the last 10 years just aren't stable enough to hold 2 weeks. Even with a uplift of 1c in global temperatures I still think it will take a pretty special evolutionary pattern, and I imagine it's still a very rare type of pattern that will produce that kinda run.

Summer8906 Mar 23 to Feb 24 will almost certainly be one of the wettest 12 month periods. If it was a calander year it'd be no.4 currently with another 2 weeks remaining and probably with a solid shot at no.1. Of course there will be wetter 12 month periods than the wettest calander year, but even so I expect this Feb to be wet enough to push us into the top 10 all time wettest 12 month periods and indeed maybe even higher.

Starting to look like another very wet month on the ewp, basically at average already and the models are swinging wetter again. Almost certainly will be one of the wettest 12 month periods (2023 already at the top end for yearlies) taking into account the very dry Feb 23 getting replaced by the probably very wet Feb 24.

Absolutely a spring day down here today, light clouds and bright and its feeling pretty nice and mild.

Froze were the Days the peak was 2.0, well within strong category. Technically its still a moderate event but there should be enough trimonthly readings to be offically strong.

This has to be one of the wettest 12 month periods ever recorded (Mar 23-Feb 24). 2023 alone was ranked in 7th place for ewp rainfall and in the EWP we are about to replace an exceptionally dry month in Feb 23 with perhaps an exceptionally wet one. Does go to show how the shift away from la nina into el nino has turbocharged things in terms of the jet.

danm that two week spell in the middle of January was indeed pretty sunny and very dry, it made a nice change. Everything outside of that though has been this monotonous wetter/duller/milder mush with literally the odd nicer day occasionally thrown in. As for the winter forecasts, the moment I saw el nino go strong as it did I thought we might struggle.

One thing that would be interesting to know is is this a true uplift in raininess in the country, or is it just us getting stronger fronts relative to past similar synoptic. In other words, have our rain days gone up or down? I'd guess it's possible that both rain days could decrease and rainfall averages go up due to more intensity of said events.

This winter already into the top 60 wettest ever across the EWP zone upto 11th, so several weeks left and whilst perhaps mot thar stormy looking, there are a few weak-moderate fronts looking baked into the next 10 days. Basically this winter has just been extended autumn, mild, borderline exceptionally wet, and at times windy, without being *really* windy for most..