kold weather

Well that ends that debate I suppose!! Lots of mid-high 34s as well, July record could fall within the hour potentially, though the cells are coming in quite rapidly from the channel so could be a race against time for the all time record.

Interestingly local PWS also agree with that 33.7c rough value, there is an area of 34-35c just to the north which I'm guessing is what Northolt is showing at the moment, but that 33.7c look pretty on the nose to me when comparing to personal stations in the region.

Upto 33.7c, not sure why it would have slowed down though, especially as I'm upto 32.5c now and we nearly always hang back 2c lower than Heathrow. Still, Bedford upto 34.3c and closing in on our first target of the July record.

Honestly I think its quite probable the channel cells will do the exact same thing the current cells have done, decayed as they move in towards the N.channel, especially on the eastern flanks as the air is still fairly capped over the SE and hence why everything is decaying as it moves in. At some point the forcing will over take that, and even IF these cells decay, can't rule out them blowing up at peak heating again close to London (likely just to the north). Still very much on target, and I'm about an hour upwind from Heathrow and still high levels of sunshine coming in. Also remember MAX temp in 2003 was reached relatively early, I believe for W.London it was something like 2-3pm.

Mid level debris passing over here now, temperature stablised around 32c (edging between 90-91f depending on cloud). Very little to the east of me to mention, so I suspect the hot zone will still have at least another 2hrs of clear weather. After that much depends on what is happening in the channel and how those cells evolve.

July record is 100% going, and will be gone probably by say 1.30pm. Then its just down to the all time record.

Yeah just areas of patchy mid level cloud. and still in the process of decaying as it trundles northwardcs. Note that the convective line to the south is weaker than the cell that sparked the current line was at this stage in its life. I fully expect the eastern edge to fizzle out and maybe for the cells on the western side of that mass to become the more dominant as they are closer to the more unstable air filtering in. Again these cells look fairly discrete, though there is more of them this time.

34c at Kew was the latest highest recording we've had, so still well on track. Cells in the channel are a possible issue, landfall for S. England some time around 1.30pm, so into the London region near peak heating close to 3pm. Of course no certainties they make it that far, as per the previous round of cells that rotted away on the eastern side in fairly spectacular fashion, and its the eastern side that really counts here. Edit- nearly 32c here now, but with patchy mid level cloud from decayed cell coming in.

Yeah, we do need to keep an eye on that second line firing up, though I again suspect the eastern side of the system will get starved and suppressed by the cap so any storms are going to be firing westwards as they come into land, just like the previous line has done. Though a higher risk with this set that the cap may get broken as the area moves in, especially given temperature by that point of 35-37c will be in place.

Yeah, I suspect somewhere is going to break the record today, regardless of whether its the London or cambridge hotspots. Quite possible both go over 38c today based on what we have seen thus far. Another line of cells starting to develop coming out of France and into channel, again will be worth seeing if they stick the course, especially in the more stable eastern side, though these have the advantage of starting further east, so cloud cover risk from these are quite considerably higher than previous convection.

Another line setting up over S.Channel heading this time somewhat further east of the original line. These may well be worth watching as they head towards southern coastal counties of the SE, though I suspect the eastern cells will wither away, just like the previous line has done on the eastern side.

Yeah, 39c is the ballpark and is about what I'd expect. We could go as high as 40c IF we get lucky with cloud cover by 4pm, could be unlucky and not quite make the record if cloud cover comes in in a big way from France...but right now not seeing enough of that to make me think that its going to be enough to stop any record attempt.

Yeah I think there is actually probably not much there, the radar return may well be virga on the eastern end of the convective line. Whilst there certainly is cloud to the south, its not the type that particularly worries me. Record still very much on IMO with multiple 32s and 33s. 2015 was hotter at this point, but it was around this time considerable mid level cloud came over for 2hrs or so and dropped the temperatures down.

Yep still heading upwards, nearly reached the hottest day of the year already at just 11am! Still looks like a 39C will be recorded to me, might be some high level cloud moving into W.London around 1-2pm but its not going to last long and I don't think its going to make much of a long term dent in the temperatures.

Still not all that impressed with the showers coming up from the channel, though they are certainly stronger on the western side, heading for W.IoW right now. Nothing like Tuesday night in terms of the cloud levels in front of the storms either. Still amazing sunshine here at the moment, just the cells to the south to note really and on the eastern side (the part that counts for the record shout) its not all that impressive.

Certainly! However not sure there is the instability aloft yet on a wide enough scale to allow these cells to go to the races. I'm on the path though so I will keep it updated.

Can see the showers over the channel now. Not that impressive, no anvil but towering cumulus, looks high based from here but too early to tell. Not sure how much rain will reach the ground as well. Also, pretty small scale cells that are still discrete. No obvious overhanging cloud away from the cell either, so as long as it misses London, it's not going to make any difference.

Yeah, I will be on the Eastern edge from the looks of things, then up Reading direction. Pretty contained looking cells as well, not a large anvil situation like Tuesday. Still confident the record goes and am happy with my low 39c call.

Those showers are moving near due north but they really aren't that impressive nor widespread. I think there maybe an increase in cloud for 30-60 mins at Heathrow which may slow things down around midday but for now not seeing enough to suggest the record can't go today. 31.6 at Heathrow, amazingly hot, think that's nearly an hour ahead of 2003.

Same thing happened in July 2015. The mid level cloud did drop temperatures from 34 to 31c which held for several hours, but between 1-3pm temps rose from 31c back upto 36.7c at Heathrow, due to just how hot the air was aloft. Same thing would happen today, indeed the storms that are present really aren't all that impressive anyway, though they may strengthen as they head into land again. Also they may be JUST far enough west to not really have much if any impact on the regions with the highest expected temperatures anyway.

Its 100% accurate, its the 9.20 temperature at Heathrow, though I don't know the exact temperature, whether its a legit 30, or a rounded up 30C (aka something like 29.6c, etc).

At the moment I don;t think the system is really large enough to cause anything more than a local short term disruption to the temperatures. Of course it it expands decently, especially to its east, it could cause more problems, but at the moment I'd guess you'd have maybe an hour at most of cloud before your back in blazing sunshine.

Hmm its still really not all that impressive on radar, I'd suggest it may IF it survives pull back temps for a 30-45 min period. Worth noting that Heathrow dipped to 31C between 11-1pm on the 1st July 2015, yet still made it to 36.7c. That was with FAR more significant and problematic mid/high level cloud cover coming across for several hours. Doesn't look anything like that. I will keep an eye out to my south as I've got a great view and can see the anvils most of the way across the channel in stronger storms.

Doesn't surprise me, Heathrow was at 28.8c at 8.50am so that fits quite nicely with that observation. Going to have several stations above 30c by 10am. July 2015 was exceptional for getting to around 34 in Heathrow by 11am, but then quite a decent area of mid level cloud came over and dropped temperatures to 31C. I think even if there are showers that come over,, I don't think its going to have such a dramtic impact.

Should basically go from IoW just a hint east of north (say 10 degrees). Should JUST stay west of London but obviously there may be cloud overhang from the anvil which may well impact sites such as Heathrow, etc. Still a few hours away yet but not the best of timings it has to be said.