kold weather

Metwatch I'd imagine we will be pretty much knocking at the door of above average by the 15-16th given quite a thundery looking low after the initial front clears through. Even a modest front would probably be enough for a technical wet month from that point on. Still could see a slightly delayed May 23 where the ms damage is done at the front end of the month and better 2nd half.

Looking like yet *another* wetter than normal month is taking shape, models really entrenching the LP nearby which will no doubt be throwing plenty of troughs/fronts up with it.

Well another month to add to the above 61-90 average. Takes us to 16 consecutive months above that normal...

Finally reaching the time of year where you staet to legitimately need stinker synoptic for the weather outside to be dreadful. Today is no great shakes synoptic wise but under the sun things warm up fairly nicely. Still even a great May is now not going to stop this spring from being wetter than normal, we are basically there already now.

Alderc 2.0 not only that but economically it makes absolutely 0 sense. In that sense longer evenings are going to be FAR more beneficially economically then keeping shorter evenings/earlier mornings. That's is the only metric that will be used in deciding what to do, you can guarantee that.

I suspect we've just become accustomed to the milder temperatures. Bar mid Jsnuary we've basically had 4-5 months of CET averaging somewhere between 6-8c. So despite mild temperatures at the moment, I think we probably aren't feeling the benefits of staying above average. A similar thing happened in summer of 2018. Literally acclimatised to the warm temperatures so by the end 28c really wasn't that warm, despite it being objectively warm.

Already a pretty high CET in a period where the months averages are only going one way. Looks like above 61-90 already is basically guaranteed. Above longer term average also is highly likely. What do we need for the warmest first 4 months ever? I'm guessing 2007 is still the king on that metric? Jan 24 was much cooler than 07 but both Feb and Mar were decently warmer in 24.

B87 my local area had by far the lowest 30 day sunshine levels ever recorded in mid June-mid July 2021. Absurd. Legitimately it would have been a below average February... (I think it had 58hrs over a 28 day period!!)

damianslaw I mean it's the 16th wettest spring ever recorded. I grant you it was very much of two halves but its an undeniably wet spring overall on the basis of the ewp over the 3 spring months. Even May 18 was not *that* dry, ended up at 81% of average. Dry but not excessively so as an average. The summer is clearly a different story!

damianslaw even 2018 has that pattern, though obviously by May we shifted conclusively away into the drier pattern that held until the end of July. I agree that nothing can really be gleamed by looking just at Spring. I'll admit the portents aren't great on the enso department if we do snap into a rapid developing la nina, however its also not the absolute master of summer either...

Should the 00z suite be correct we will probably already be near average for the Spring by mid month. Nothing short of an exceptional dry spell in the 2nd half stops this from being another above average season for rainfall. Onto summer we go...

The models are real rough for the first 10 days, you've got at least 3-4 fairly significant lows and a fee other weak features. On top of already sodden land suggests pretty high risk of flooding in places probe to it. The only slight benefit is stronger evaporation vs mid winter, but that's not going to overcome already waterlogged grounds and daily rainfall. Hopefully there is a pot of gold waiting beyond this string of lows.

Ewp will almost certainly be above 100mm by the end of today. Another very wet month due to a very wet end.

Weather-history Absurdly wet period. I've got to imagine we are closing in on a 12 month rolling record. I had hoped we would be well behind Mar 23 but even though it is behind its by a modest amount. A wetter than normal May-June might well seal the deal on not only the wettest jul-Jun but the wettest rolling 12 months. Especiàlly if April morphs into another real wet one.

Summer8906 You would have thought a rapid shift in the enso state combined with final warming of the pv is going to totally shift this pattern. The fear I have is it just shift us into another pretty meh pattern. Rapidly intensifying la nina summers tend to be on the poorer end of the scale, especially in the North. The south at least has more riding chances typically. As I said in the other thread, the 2nd half of 94 and first 3 months of 95 were pretty rough going yet that shifted gears into an exceptional summer. So it absolutely can and does happen (and equally it can shift the other way from dry to wet) With all that being said, yes this spell absolutely is in exceptional territory now. I think 1872 had every month above average? It was absurdly wet regardless. Also as wet as things are, it's not yet in the same ballpark as the first part of 2014.