Lewis
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Posts posted by Lewis
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Torrential rain here in the East of Hull, started around 7am.
Luckily and thankfully, there is a respite soon, as the second wave in the north sea should go North of here.
Lewis
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Re tomorrow mornings potential "MCS" I'm waiting for the 18z model, if it looks good i'll set the alarm clock, if it don't look good, time to give some head to that pillow.
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Questionable funnel, taken from a cell moving across Paul (North Bank of Humber) looking South. Was about 45 mins ago.
Noticed some rotation, at first I thought it was scud, but it kept lowering and lowering.
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That was it how it was but things have been revised South since yesterday it seems. Central/S Areas now at most at risk from that stalling front.
The GEM has a possible major flood event for SW Britain as an area of heavy rain becomes stalled, 24+ hours of heavy rain
I see, it's going to be a case of keeping an eye on the models, all different models have a different scenario. I don't want flooding, and neither does anyone else, but I fail to see very heavy rain bringing flooding here in Hull, and every time the metoffice do slap a yellow warning over me for heavy rain, it never happens.
Lewis
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Blimey, the NAE has some torrential rain moving into SE Thursday night and spreading across many central/S. Areas and probably eventually Wales/SW England.
The NMM is similar but further North
I thought it was moving North Westwards... Would explain the weather warnings by the metoffice for both Friday & Saturday for the highlighted areas?
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Bit of a downgrade on CAPE and LI values on todays 00z NMM for today across Eastern parts, nonetheless there is still the chance for some thundery downpours developing.
Wednesday looking good, and friday! looks very good.
Lewis
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Very unlucky but fingers crossed for this week!! 10 feet of snow here hmmm ....We'll need a stalled front down the Western side of the UK with an E/SE feed of frigid continental air undercutting!! Feb 1996 style.
you make me laugh Liam always bring humor to the discussion thread.
I actually think you'll see some storms this week! Don't quote me on it though
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I would be punished very severely by Jane if I locked that thread!! lol... Unfortunately for some of us in the NSC we will never leave regardless of how good the model outputs are looking! Sad fact, I'll probably still be a resident for a long time to come yet.....
I just want one decent VERY SEVERE storm, oh sorry not allowed to wish for them kind of events are we..... hehe BTW Thursday is looking the best bet imo.
haha, it'll come soon Liam
your just in an unlucky location at the moment, you'll probably get 10 feet of snow over winter, whilst us in the East will get nothing. lollewis
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Looking at the latest GFS the potential is there for some pretty nasty storms. 1000 j/kg of cape and a negative lifted index spells one thing if other conditions are favorable, and that's THUNDERSTORMS!
Best thing about this week, is that there's enough potential UK wide, so less people are likely to miss out, that would be great for everyone to see some thunderstorms. Maybe then Liam will be able to lock that "NO storms group" thread
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It's been one of them days today, is there anyone that can cheer me up by telling me I'll see some storms this week, head too heavy and eyes hurting too much to see the wonderful colorful netweather model charts.
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Re. supercells...I refer members to one of Paul Sherman's post's ...... http://forum.netweat...40#entry2327012
In his opinion at least 3 high precip Supercells developed over the east Midlands, and I'd take Paul's analysis without hesitation because as we all know, Paul has more experience of supercells than any other storm chaser in the UK
Brilliant day for East Midlands & Lincolnshire.
Lincoln is becoming the storm capital of the U.K.
Lewis
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There you go
That's a cell that produced confirmed tornadoes
Me and Del got to spurn point as it pushed in to the N Sea, some lovely CG's was a very active cell.
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The storm risk maps look pretty good for most of the upcoming week, the risk becoming quite widespread after midweek.
There is certainly the potential there, nothing for severe, or supportive for thunderstorms, be more of a case of "thundery showers".
Lewis
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Have not really had time to look at the charts yet, but the other day next thursday/friday was looking good.
Towards the end of August/Start of September is when we normally do will from plumes/imports.
Lewis
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I'm not doubting the southen chances today. I have seen some early towering while washing my car. In the last hour they have grown a awful lot!
I can see heavy showers becoming thundery! Not as bad as Thursday but i can see a few storms further south. - 500 cape for the south?
Not an event for the South today, very little in the way of energy.
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so a trip to Munich anyone?
Yes please!
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U.K Weather Forecast - 30th June 2012 - By Lewis Dobson
Weather map followed by text forecast
UK weather forecast
After a bright start for many areas today will be a mixed bag of sunshine and heavy showers. Temperatures will be around 17-19c across Eastern parts of England, and around 16-18 for the North and North West of England. Further South values of around 13-16c are expected.
Already showers are becoming widespread across the West of the country, these showers will become increasingly heavy as we head on through the afternoon, with some thundery downpours, and a small chance of some local thunderstorms.
Areas greatest at risk of thundery weather are the East Midlands, Northwards in to Lincolnshire, Yorkshire and NE England, with NE parts of Scotland having a slight risk of some thundery showers developing.
Showers will be moving North Eastwards throughout the day, and may become slow moving at times giving torrential downpours, with a risk of flash flooding.
The showers will gradually die out in to the early evening for most parts, although some may continue and begin to fizzle out across Eastern England.
I will issue a flash warning of severe weather if necessary.
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Am I ok to re-post this seeing as though the other thread has been locked?
Just wrote my forecast for tomorrow for my website, thought I would share on here.
UK Weather Forecast - Friday 29th June 2012 - Issued by Lewis Dobson
Forecast map followed by text forecast
Text forecast for the U.K
After what has been a very eventful day consisting of, severe thunderstorms, towns & villages flooded, frequent lightning, hail the size of golf balls, and last but not least, tornados! Yes you guessed it, the weather is going to be much more quiter during tomorrow. The unstable, humid air that's influenced the UK's weather over the past 36 hours is now moving away as todays cold front has passed through, this has stabilised the air, and with this brings a fresher feel to the weather. Overnight tonight skies will clear with temperatures holding up to around 10-12ºc for Northern parts of England and Scotland, with temperatures a little warmer the further South with values of around 13-14ºc expected. As we head on through to tomorrow they will be showers bubbling up across Western parts of the United Kingdom, these will move eastwards throughout the course of the morning, becoming heavy across Eastern, North Eastern parts of England, where these may turn thundery for a time, with the small chance of some local thunderstorms, although nothing like what has been seen today.
We head further North in to Scotland, here showers will be much more widespread, and there is sufficient energy to produce some very heavy downpours with a moderate to high risk of thunderstorms, although nothing too severe, based on the latest output. Northern Ireland will experience showers, some of which may be heavy and thundry in nature. As we head further South in to Central parts of Southern England, Wales, EA and the SE, there is a chance of some showers, although more central parts of Southern England should stay dry, with breaks in the cloud leading to sunny spells. South Western parts of England will hang on to more in the way of cloud cover, thick enough to bring some spells of patchty rain, the best of the brightness across the South West will be across North Devon, running North Eastwards to the Bristol channel.
Temperatures tomorrow will be generally cooler, with the highest maximums expected to be around Eastern parts of England and Yorkshire, around 18-20ºc. Across Southern parts temperatures of around 15-17ºc, and a little cooler for Scotland and Northern Ireland, where temperatures are expected to be around 12-15ºc. I
will post a flash warning of severe weather for the areas mentioned for thunderstorm development tomorrow if necessary.
Issued by Lewis Dobson
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for destabilised the air read stabilised I think you mean Lewis?
Thanks John, good spot, have amended it
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Just wrote my forecast for tomorrow for my website, thought I would share on here.
UK Weather Forecast - Friday 29th June 2012 - Issued by Lewis Dobson
Forecast map followed by text forecast
Text forecast for the U.K
After what has been a very eventful day consisting of, severe thunderstorms, towns & villages flooded, frequent lightning, hail the size of golf balls, and last but not least, tornados!
Yes you guessed it, the weather is going to be much more quiter during tomorrow.
The unstable, humid air that's influenced the UK's weather over the past 36 hours is now moving away as todays cold front has passed through, this has stabilised the air, and with this brings a fresher feel to the weather.
Overnight tonight skies will clear with temperatures holding up to around 10-12ºc for Northern parts of England and Scotland, with temperatures a little warmer the further South with values of around 13-14ºc expected.
As we head on through to tomorrow they will be showers bubbling up across Western parts of the United Kingdom, these will move eastwards throughout the course of the morning, becoming heavy across Eastern, North Eastern parts of England, where these may turn thundery for a time, with the small chance of some local thunderstorms, although nothing like what has been seen today.
We head further North in to Scotland, here showers will be much more widespread, and there is sufficient energy to produce some very heavy downpours with a moderate to high risk of thunderstorms, although nothing too severe, based on the latest output.
Northern Ireland will experience showers, some of which may be heavy and thundry in nature.
As we head further South in to Central parts of Southern England, Wales, EA and the SE, there is a chance of some showers, although more central parts of Southern England should stay dry, with breaks in the cloud leading to sunny spells.
South Western parts of England will hang on to more in the way of cloud cover, thick enough to bring some spells of patchty rain, the best of the brightness across the South West will be across North Devon, running North Eastwards to the Bristol channel.
Temperatures tomorrow will be generally cooler, with the highest maximums expected to be around Eastern parts of England and Yorkshire, around 18-20ºc. Across Southern parts temperatures of around 15-17ºc, and a little cooler for Scotland and Northern Ireland, where temperatures are expected to be around 12-15ºc.
I will post a flash warning of severe weather for the areas mentioned for thunderstorm development tomorrow if necessary.
Issued by Lewis Dobson
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As I said last month just after the Oxon supercell, the Met Office's warning system is redundant on days such as today. I've been rather critical of them in the past concerning their forecasts ahead of convective storm risk days, but today I actually felt angry with them.
Golf-ball sized hail, CG lightning, strong convective downdrafts, tornado..... the conditions looked very favourable for this sort of activity several days in advance. I knew it; I'm know quite a few others did too. So that means the Met Office knew. They intentionally withheld crucial information concerning public safety, and for that they might as well not have a warning system at all.
To be fair to the Metoffice they did update their warnings yesterday, and they actually got the mapped out area spot on. With much of the "North" of england and NE England to bear the brunt, with the EAST/SE not in the warning zone because it was always clear they was not going to get anything to ride home about.
I think people can be very critical of the metoffice at times, the weather is so hard to predict, and credit too them for getting their warning area spot on, thunderstorms are very hard to forecast, never mind pin pointing them/forecasting them to a location, if you had models/charts showing something blatantly obvious for example the SE with all the energy and the CF and no where else, it can be done...
Lewis
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Just drawn on the map the areas that I think will see (Proper thunderstorms developing/MCS)
Other areas will have their activity from the cold front, but as the cold front moves through due to surface heating across the areas highlighted on the below map, it really will spark some big storms off.
For all areas ML cape is HIGH, but the highlighted areas get very high SB cape and a very negative lifted index, looking tasty for storms, I tell you now these are going to be bad boy storms, closest we'll get to the US.
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You keep re-iterating the EA and SE missing out.......????
By all means keep going, I believe that's how jynxes work
Funny you failed to notice that the areas I'm going for is not my location, I had seen your post earlier this morning about "US Northerners" saying the EA and SE will miss out, this was just after I made a post about the 00z being a downgrade.
I'm just giving my thoughts on what I see when I look at the models, I'm not singling a location out, not trying to sabotage peoples hopes or anything.
Look at the NMM, as the CF moves through most of the activity is across the SW, moving up through the Bristol channel and in to NW England.
There is energy across much of England, SW areas, Central parts of Southern England, and of course the SE.
The reason why I say it's going to be a bit of a hit and miss for the SE and EA is because of the angle of the cold front and where it's heading.
SE and EA will not bear the brunt of it, they will be "clipped" by it, with some cells firing up on the eastern side of it and it pushes through...
Again the NMM (high res model) showing the heaviest of the precipitation across NW parts of England running through to Central N England.
How can you ignore this?
Lewis
I just want one decent VERY SEVERE storm, oh sorry not allowed to wish for them kind of events are we..... hehe 
your just in an unlucky location at the moment, you'll probably get 10 feet of snow over winter, whilst us in the East will get nothing. lol
Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 5th July 2012>
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Lewis
Blimey, thats some heavy rain.