nick sussex

A sorry bunch of outputs this morning barring the UKMO . The Gold Model for awfulness goes to the GFS , a horror show for coldies . The ECM less awful but still too much energy spilling over the top with the high to the east orientated poorly . The UKMO is the best at day 7 with a likely high to the ne building but at that timeframe I’ve never known it trump the others if it’s got the best solution for coldies . The GEM similar to the ECM . Overall no real progress in terms of cold prospects in the medium term and with winter ticking down very little time now to salvage another woeful winter. If you get some snow over the next few days make the most of it !

I’m close to wheeling out my film analogies ! This is a bad sign for coldies . We seem to be like a dog chasing its tail ! Fair enough some parts might see some snow over the next few days but a lot of that turns to rain unless the models stall the fronts . Crunchy snow that you can enjoy for a few days at present seems a huge struggle . I’m going to give it a few more days to see what happens to the ne and then Ripley will be wheeled out if there’s no signs of life or the Alien Queen hasn’t been blown out into space . If things look very ugly then expect the code red Poltergeist clown to be wheeled out ! We need a change of luck and the limpet low needs to cancel its European tour .

So a bloated Siberian High which is mutton dressed as lamb v Atlantic . We’ve seen this episode many times before . It tends to end in tears , the bloated high looks good on the charts but normally delivers a big fat zero for coldies . The smaller Scandi high is what we want to see .

Did coldies do something bad in a previous life . We seem to be seeing a series of misadventures where everything that can go wrong does ! I think it might have been less annoying if we had a raging PV but even when the NH was primed to deliver cold something then popped up . The limpet low arrives on the scene at T48 hrs and is still influencing events at T192 hrs . It morphs into a trigger type low at that point which needs to head se allowing high pressure to extend sw .

CoventryWeather Its a big upgrade moving forward as the UK low has detached from those low heights in south Greenland . We want the low moving east or se and not north .

CoventryWeather Yes the low is flatter and the cold air hangs on for longer in the north . This low is causing major drama because very small changes to the structure can have a big impact on those in the risk area .

The MOGREPS show 7 runs with an east or ne flow next week . We certainly don’t want the UKMO op to verify at day 7 . Indeed the divergence at that point is perhaps getting less airtime because of the low drama .

The UKMO continue to modify their raw data at close range so still have low confidence in their op runs as can be seen by the latest T72hrs fax chart. Ironically the Euros are now less snowy than the GFS re the stalling front . The issue with any easterly is the previous low drama has blown a lot of the cold away from most of Europe. There is some over Scandi but the set up can’t latch onto that early enough because of the slow moving limpet low . We do at least arrive to some form of easterly in both the ECM and GFS and from there a chance to retrogress the high with some colder air dropping south to the east. This seems a safer evolution than trying to develop a high first to the nw as in the GEM . Anyway this earlier low drama must be nerve shredding for those in the high risk area . The only benefit of being this far south is it’s less stressful , just plain old rain here !

Cambrian That might be the case but the ensembles after that aren’t as good . The ECM and UKMO will now have less weighting until they repair the damage to their reputation .

So chase number 73 looks on as we now rely on retrogression ! The ECM teases initially with the Scandi high although any cold has already been blasted away by the earlier effects of the will it won’t it low pressure . So now coldies have to endure the retrogression drama to see if we can get a Greenland high . At this point I think there’s more chance of seeing the next coming of Christ ! But we’ll indulge the ECM for a few runs .

Geordiesnow To have both the ECM and UKMO wrong at T96 hrs is extremely rare . There was much trashing of the GFS this morning but it’s still a major global model . The first clue to the debacle was the fax charts . Last night they were heavily modified , this morning at just T84 hrs that was modified away from the raw data . I mentioned at the time this meant the UKMO had low confidence in their model . And as we’ve seen the UKMO were right to be dubious .

Mcconnor8 Absolutely woeful performance by the ECM and UKMO . Both wrong at T96 hrs .

Cold Winter Night The transition to a block was easier from the original outputs . Now a lot more has to go right . Given the recent track record we do seem to be constantly chasing better outputs which remain marooned in FI .

There’s no point in trying to spin scraps off the buffet table . The outputs are going in the wrong direction . The ECM to come but really I’m not holding my breath !

Where’s the northern blocking gone . After nearly 3 weeks of crud we’re left chasing a snow to rain event for some areas . The UKMO has been completely wrong at T96 hrs . We now await the ECM to salvage proceedings !

frosty ground The UKMO is woeful compared to its 00hrs output at day 6 . An embarrassing climbdown .

The UKMO completes a total capitulation at day 6 . Scarcely believable that it could be so wrong at just T96 hrs .

You’d hardly trust the UKMO at day 4 after its backtrack from the morning run. The GFS initially had the colder air further south but still ends up with the worst solution .

A poor start to the evening with the ICON following the misery model. It would be tragic if the ECM and UKMO were both wrong at day 4. Either of those solutions would be okay compared to the last two GFS runs . We’ll know in the next few hours whether to call time on this winter as the GFS solution would be a very poor marker moving forward .

winterof79 Upstream NCEP are quite happy with the GFS . The issues around the UK with the low aren’t greatly effected by the upstream pattern at that stage . Its not just the track of the low which is the issue but whether it splits into a complex system . This makes a big difference . Nick F talks about this on page 95 .

feb1991blizzard Yes the 06 hrs are awful. This really all stems from the blown up low tracking north . Compared to yesterday they are a massive downgrade .

The issue with the GFS is that it’s shown absolutely no sign of any backtrack . Indeed it’s even worse which makes a possible middle ground solution underwhelming. We really needed it to start moving . It really is last chance saloon time this evening .

The GFS delivers the worst possible solution from the set up. It blows the cold air away from the UK and from most of mainland Europe. Dreadful stuff . If this verifies against the Euros at just day 4 meaning they’re both wrong then I think it’s time to call time on this winter .

So far the GFS 06 hrs run shows no sign of u-turning .

MKN The complications around the low aren’t just how far north or south it tracks . The models also differ in the structure of the low , as in one main system or a splitting of that into a complex low pressure .