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  1. Hi MIA, thanks for your reply. While reading the science of Discworld by Terry Pratchett, Ian Stewart and Jack Cohen I came across the concept of “Lies-to-children”; when explaining a complicated subject to a child we try to do it by telling them something we think they will understand, we don’t do it to deceive but rather to help. For example, I was told that the atom was like a very tiny universe where the nucleus is like the sun and electrons are like planets orbiting it, and then I was told to forget all that “rubbish” and to go and look at the Bohr model and so on. I found this quote from
  2. For those that like this sort of thing there is a nice table in the Supplemental Material of formulae giving the radiative forcing for some common greenhouse gasses. I hadn't seen them in this sort of ready reckoner form before, sorry if I am treading on old ground. Looking at he latest concentration of Carbon Dioxide I see it is at 407ppm and taking pre-industrial as 280 ppm we get 5.35(ln407 - ln280) = 2.00 W/m2 a nice round number. A doubling of CO2 gives 5.35(ln560 - ln280) = 3.7 W/m2, NAD
  3. Hi MIA, thanks for the link. A tardy response I know, but I don't visit he Blogiverse very often. Regarding the use of parameters, I found the section “Climate Model Development and Tuning” interesting. It informs us that when developing climate models, some processes have to be parameterized either because they are too complex, or they happen over too small a time scale or area, such as clouds. Also there will always be a trade off between model resolution and computer resources; the smaller grid or more time steps that are included, the more the computing requirement increases. Anoth
  4. While it is quiet here I would like to tie up a few loose ends on my understanding of the MJO and try to move the story on a little and into the subtropics. So what happened last week with the MJO? See the OLR anomalies: We can see the area of long lived convection around the maritime continent and some new convection appearing in the central and Western pacific around 10 to 15 degrees north and south. These seem to be almost sneaking around the area of anomalously high OLR near the dateline and following the areas of highest sea temperatures. A digression: The Coriolis Effect is ze
  5. Hi @Snowy Hibbo, Thank you, I had not seen that website from the University of Tsukuba, http://gpvjma.ccs.hpcc.jp/TIGGE/tigge_MJO_score.html it contains a wealth of information. You can scroll through the years between 2007 and 2013 and see that the verification statistics improve over the years, which I see as a vindication of the work put into this area. It was not my intention to imply that the GCMs and NWPs do not do a splendid job in their representation of the MJO; it was more to say that the developers feel that they could do even better. For example snip >> The representat
  6. I realise that the thread is eager to move on from the basics of things like the MJO; however I would like the opportunity to complete the musings from my first post by looking at how the MJO moves and whether we can predict its movement? Why does the MJO travel from west to east? I have seen a number of theories over time but for me the most convincing is that of coupled planetary waves. This is not as frightening as is sounds. Here are a couple of images one showing a schematic diagram cross section through the area of convection and the second an OLR anomaly chart from my fir
  7. Hello David, thank you for your kind reply, suitably encouraged I will have a go at this year. The OLR anomalies for this month show. Even though most of the tropical convection in the Pacific is in similar areas to last year, we can see the cooler water east of the dateline having an effect. In my opinion the basics are the same, with waves heading east and poleward, but perhaps not as clear cut as last year. The convective precipitation chart for the same time shows: Intuitively one would think that the most convective activity would take
  8. Last winter I wanted to take a look at teleconnections, luckily I still have some of the images I used saved on my computer. My approach was to look at the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) charts provided by the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL). Specifically I used the OLR anomaly charts in the hope that they would show where any areas of deep tropical convection were. See here https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/olr.shtml The OLR anomaly charts show the difference from normal in the amount of infrared radiation (heat) being emitted to space from any particular location on ea
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