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near northampton

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Posts posted by near northampton

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    On 28/03/2024 at 20:36, damianslaw said:

    average.

    Easter Saturday - less showery, but still threat for anywhere, brighter breaks and will feel mild

    Indeed also add

    in  3 record Breaking months for warmth, June and September 23 and Feb 23 also smashing the January record this year which was every not a dramatic as July 22, clearly CC,  but models continue to show anomalous rainfalls totals, 

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Yeah only Kent and North York Moors got anything significant out of December 2022. Looking at the charts one might think instability would be extensive with features popping up regularly:

    image.thumb.png.1f98f1281e2ccb8978a2eebc6ec9d364.png

    When in reality the lack of thermal gradient in the slack flow only results in very localized (but intense) features that don't last particularly long either, often only covering one or two counties. 

    For the type of trough development many on here are suggesting is possible, i.e. covering large portions of the UK, a far more unstable flow is required. For example, this flow from November 2005. Or progression of a larger trough / low such as the one from Iceland / to our South West could provide the extent of convection required for more widespread snowfall.

    image.thumb.png.dc49b2c38779c4ae29d95ea9f23a8b82.png

    Now I'm not suggesting that there wont be any snow chances in the upcoming cold spell. Just that if we end up with a quiet area of low pressure under slack winds then likelihood in building widespread heavy troughs is quite low, as proven by the previous cold spell and December 2022. This is proven by the accumulation charts shown by the GFS/ECM/GEM etc. These are fair in giving an indication of potential and if the slack flow indicated was indicative of heavy trough development then these charts would reflect this and show more extensive snow accumulation. This could still change though. We may still source an active and larger area of low pressure which is certainly possible.

    Incorrect, the Northern Home Counties and Gloucestershire where I live both had significant snowfall in December 2022, was over a foot of snow in the high Cotswolds and 6 inches here in Cheltenham which lay on the ground for a week. It wasn't forecast and occurred in a slack flow. You are taking the precip charts at face value here. 

    • Like 4

    Model discussion highlights

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, TillyS said:

    Yes and Paul B******* (almost a swear word on here!) said he once counted 8 anticyclones one after another in a single winter that were collectively eponymous. They move around a bit as you say but the blasted thing keeps re-appearing.

    Still early days and it may all change but after a very promising start to December it’s an incredible turnaround. We’ve lost all of the cold pooling and northern blocking is currently absent. 

    Someone mentioned climate drivers, which is a different topic but relates to the model outputs. How often in recent years have we seen all this model promise get destroyed by warming?

     

    Indeed, and before the the euro high was established, Spain broke its all time December high on the 12th December with 29.9c in Malaga. Much is talked about scandi cold pooling earlier in the December, no one it appears was looking the other way. Month after month of record high breaking temperatures across Europe. Of course that in itself is not a driver of our weather now?


    Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4978474
    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, TillyS said:

    Yes and Paul B******* (almost a swear word on here!) said he once counted 8 anticyclones one after another in a single winter that were collectively eponymous. They move around a bit as you say but the blasted thing keeps re-appearing.

    Still early days and it may all change but after a very promising start to December it’s an incredible turnaround. We’ve lost all of the cold pooling and northern blocking is currently absent. 

    Someone mentioned climate drivers, which is a different topic but relates to the model outputs. How often in recent years have we seen all this model promise get destroyed by warming?

     

    Indeed, and before the the euro high was established, Spain broke its all time December high on the 12th December with 29.9c in Malaga. Much is talked about scandi cold pooling earlier in the December, no one it appears was looking the other way. Month after month of record high breaking temperatures across Europe. Of course that in itself is not a driver of our weather now?

    • Like 1
    • Insightful 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Uncertainty said:

    The main thing is we are now seeing a massive, extensive Ural block being progged. This will, if it persists, cause an ssw in January.

    The mjo also looks really good  for a blast towards phase 7/8 as @Dennis and @Met4Cast and others have been flagging. 
    image.thumb.png.f566f2d597f0029ef9ecea1413dba7e4.png

    Good to see the ec46 have a go at this as it’s struggled with mjo amp recently.

    There are lots and lots of really interesting eps members but still no clear signal or direction for our weather at the surface in the extended. We need a lot more momentum to push the big Siberian high westwards though. We haven’t had many true winter (eg DJF) scandi highs with lows going under  drawing in snowy easterlies in the last decade now have we?? Have we even had one? Thousands have been modelled and I’m trying to think of one save late Feb 2018? Jan 18 had one that was a precursor to feb but not really snowy.

    Finally Cansips is out tomorrow anyone else nervous lol
     

    Disagree with the first part of your post but totally agree with the 2nd part some reality 

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    You know what I'm seriously thinking here folks.

    This could be the  Winter when all is said and done that the teleconnections scratch there heads and say what the bloody hell just happened here!

    I remember reading somewhere recently back in Summer from a climatological expert that there are so many variables coming into play right now that we are literally entering the unknown!

    The moral of this story is do not be that suprised if you wake up some days and see that NWP as completely changed its direction.

    The background drivers could well be overuled by overriding factors on occasion.

     What are the overriding factors?

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by near northampton

    3 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The 12z EC has a Scandi high in the making at day 10...

    ECH1-240.thumb.gif.f5c55574d2eac906322fb492f2fc3413.gif

    totally different to  this mornings run,...a trend?

    It's the hope that will kill you, when was the last time  the models showed a Scandinavian hiigh at 10 days and it happens? rare as hen's teeth. I do think that NWP has not adjusted to our warming climate in Winter

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, SilverWolf said:

    Can well believe that! Been hedgecutting all day in Tetbury, not that far from Staverton as the crow flies, and it was the hottest day I’ve worked since late June by a long way.. not scientific, but the models showing highest temps today and for a few days after at least may well be spot on. I was not expecting to be quite as hot as it was today having read this thread and seen some forecasts the last few days… 

    I live 2 miles from the airport, if the wind direction is correct we should see a foehn effect off  leckhampton hill and another high temperature, maybe 32c 

    • Thanks 1

    Summer 2023 chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    No- it's a warm spell after the first frost. That doesn't happen in September or would be extremely unlikely.

    The term Indian Summer originates from the Northeastern states of the US and over there it's considered to be from mid-October onwards as that is when the first air frost becomes possible.

    You are absolutely correct, however the phrase has crossed the Atlantic and been adapted in the UK to mean a spell of warm weather in September or October 

    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by near northampton

    7 minutes ago, Don said:

    Why, do you feel September might have an unsettled theme?

    Yep good question, love to have some insight from this very thankful prolific poster as to why September "might" have an unsettled theme?

    4 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

    It does seem like it's not that clear cut to me now as it was, initially I thought September was going to be OK, now I'm not so sure.

    Why

    • Thanks 1

    Spain Weather

    in Weather Around The World

    Posted

    The signal from the models for rain in Iberia is very welcome, the drought is very serious, the Spanish government yesterday issued a 2.2 billion euro package to help affected parties including farmers who's livelihoods are are under great strain. 

    • Like 2
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