CroatianWeather

In my opinion, you, in UK should prepare for stormy, wet May with average temperatures. June could also be quite unsettled for you, but then I can see reverse of pattern. July and August will possibly be better, warmer and drier but nothing exceptionally. Don't see long heatwaves, just average to above average temperatures and, again, lack of rain. But, I think, rains during rest of April, May and June will break drought which lasts for over 16 months.

Remember my forecast in April??? Cooler and overall average or rainier summer for UK...and some of you attacked me because you thought that dry warm spring would deliver hot summer!!! No, guys... NAO index turned negative in June as I said, El nino didn't appear and these were main factors that caused once again washout summer for most of UK (I say most because some parts had average or just drier summer)

Don't understand... I said that this autumn could be similar to 2004.... What did I do wrong?

I haven't finished my European Autumn 2011 forecast yet, but my preliminary analysis are showing Autumn similar to 2004 one !!! So that should be something like this: Warmer and little drier in the south-southeast of Europe , and warmest month should be October(but also September should be warmer and November around average) For northern mainland and UK I expect warmer September but little cooler by mid to late autumn(October and November)... That's for now, I will put my complete and detailed forecast by the end of summer(around 30th August) ...

yes Alex last days were awful and almost autumnal in Croatia.... a lot of rain,clouds etc... in city of Split(my place) this is the RAINIEST JULY IN HISTORY......JUST IN TWO DAYS OVER 100mm OF RAIN HAS FALLEN....... But in next days temperatures will rise up and next week will be around 30-35°C !

Bad situation for you...maybe you who love sun and warmth are happy but this situation really may become serious...I keep thumbs up for some rain for you... and I think it will be neyt weekend ,for 4-5 days...atlantic low will bring some rain showers and thunderstorms.... and I think May , overall will be pretty good,but not as warm and dry as April was !!! Then in June I predict more atlantic lows reaching you and it coul last into July...so it won't be so bad summer like 2007 and 2008,I think,but it won't be so good like last one

Not just you had good April...in Croatia was also very sunny and warm,maximum temperatures were often around 25°C... But this isn't best April....some of you have forgotten Aprils 1995,2003, or 2007... that three Aprils were better...of course it's hard to be better than this April but we see it's possible.... I am pretty confused....as strong La nina is weakening to neutral ENSO, this had to be very cool and unsettled spring for you(many forecasters told that) but it wasn't....we'll se what May brings....I think it'll be near average for you folks !!! But this April I just didn't expect...I expected opposite,dominating Atlantic,more cold air over northern Europe,but I was wrong... So,now I am confused about summer...because of this early warmth and warm ocean west of you this summer could be extremely unsettled and stormy for you up there........believe me,warming SST around Greenland and east of Labrador yould be very potential for deep cyclones this summer(especially July) ....and CFS also predicts very warm SST in summer.... Also it's predicted cooler SST near azores and that's good signal for hot and dry summer in southern parts of Europe,Mediterranean... Sorry for little offtopic,but this April could have an enormous influence on nextcoming months !!!!!

Alex....what backup I need???? Backup is 2007 summer.......isn't it enough.... I know , you think ,as now in April you have some warmth that means summer will be hot.... no,that doesn't mean........but we'll see....I will contact you in September and I put fingers up for you...wish you hot and dry summer ..... bye

Hi,again your Croatian friend speaking..hahahha.... I've just made my finally forecast for summer 2011,but I am not in good mood today so I will be short... you want to know about UK,ha? I see that like this: You'll have pretty mixed May,not sunny and hot like 2008 but not very bad....there'll be some high temps near first 30°C,but it will be breaked down by strong atlantic disturbation... Then in June there should be normal,average weather,like early summer,and then turnaround in July....July could be wetter and average in temperature(1961-90) up there...so it's not going to be real summer weather,I think... August should give again some little warmer and drier weather but not with some record breaking temperatures... So,overall it could be average summer for you...pretty mixed ,not very good or very bad...

Yes,I remember spring 2007,anticyclonic in most parts of Europe,but then summer for UK was miserable..here in southeast summer was pretty warm and dry.....and this situation in first 3 months of 2011 reminds me on 2007.....could be similar summer this year I think ...

No...depends... is El nino transiting to La nina or opposite...if El nino is going to La nina than it can be pretty good summer for UK with ridge over Atlantic with lots of blocking around you up there....but now when from La nina we are going to neutral conditions(and this is 2nd year of la nina) we can expect blocking far west of UK and you should expect STORMY AND UNSETTLED SUMMER THIS YEAR... MY NEWEST OPINION Is THAT YOU COULD POSSIBLY SEE PRETTY WARM AND DRY MAY , BUT LATER , ESPECIALLY IN JUNE AND AUGUST IT WILL BE MORE DISTURBED WEATHER......TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND AVERAGE('61-'90) .

First day of Spring 2011 in Croatia was cool/cold with partly sunny skies over country...but since tomorrow to the end of this week it's expected warmer and sunny weather with temperatures rising 20°C in big parts of country.ciao for now***

Feelings,thinkings and so....that means nothing...come on , show me evidence,some seasonal models, or something like that...THERE IS NOT ANY MODEL GIVING YOU HOT AND DRY SUMMER.....especially not good summer like 2006... Maybe you will have good summer,that just God knows , but looking models(CPC,Beijing climate model,NASA,etc...) there is no chance for summers like 2006 or 2003.... Main reason is la nina which will persist through all summer months,you will see.......And start of spring means nothing....Mr Data can tell you how many springs started good and bad summers following.... So again,I think this summer won't be so cold for you,maybe it's gonna be average in temperatures(61-90),and moderate wetter.... La nina doesn't mean lots of blocking,it can mean that but it doesn't have to mean that.....main role will play Atlantic SST (NAO index) , strenght of La nina and Arctic oscillation.... BUT I REPEAT...I AM NOT MOTHER NATURE AND I CANNOT CONTROL THE WEATHER....WE HAVE TO WAIT I will issue my next summer idea in April !!!

Wobbufet are you also from Split????I didn't know that??!!Do you speak Croatian? Today in the morning it was sunny and in the afternoon cloudy but warm with 13°C.

Long time I haven't written in this topic but I think it's time to say something.....you folks, are wishing hot and long summer because last 4-5 summers were washout in BIG parts of UK....and I can understand you... but, let's be objective.....in summer months we'll see weakening of La nina but it is going to be still weakly negative ENSO.....warm AMO and NAO is also predicted for summer in IRI seasonal forecast...this is also not good sign for you in UK and in Scandinavia because it means warm waters below Greenland and west of UK...and some seasonal forecasts show STRONG positive anomalies there...that means JET will be just around UK and than into Scandinavia driving down in North-Eastern Europe... So,we have a lot of evidence that this summer will PROBABLY(you can never be 100% sure) be dull,cloudy and lot cooler than for example summers of 2003 and 2006...prepare for reprise of 2008 summer....this one could be very similar.... And my predictions is that hot and mostly dry summer is on the way for South,Southeast and Central Europe...

Today in Split cloudy but really warm with 15°C...this year we had mild and dry winter......generally in whole region(Balkans) it wasn't cold winter 2010-2011 ...

Still warm in big parts of country...in Split today's maximum is 17°C ! So it feels like it's at least April,not February ! And in next few days still warm and sunny....there is no significantly cold in next week or two...can we say bye-bye winter?

Spring in Croatia!!!!!!Today maximum temp. in Split was 16°C !!!!! And in Knin(also city in Croatia) it was summer feel with 21°C !!!!!!!! Really weird weather....and they predict few more warm and sunny days and then little colder finally !

Last week I gave my opinion (few pages before) on summer 2011 in whole Europe...I am in hurry but I will write my opinion first about spring 2011....We are all looking forward summer but forget spring which has almost started ! I think it will be cool spring for you in UK with few more late bites of winter,especially in March and first half of April. Then you should see pretty nice May(end of spring) and maybe first part of June,and than guess what...BANG !! Big turnaround in the end of June,especially in July and August which could be wet and dull months for you dudes.... Just my opinion, but think about it....I predict cool first part of Spring,warmer second and then again wet and temperature around average summer(but it will feel colder because of rain and Atlantic lows which will be settled just over UK,Ireland,and Scandinavia... That's from me for now, I will post again for few days with new NASA and IOD seasonal forecast(which updates around 10th every month)

Warm and sunny here in Split...temperature is 15°C !! Will winter bite back or spring has started? We have to wait and see...

Here wasn't snow on the ground this winter!!!! And look GFS nad Ecmwf charts for next 10 days!!!!For us here in the Balkans just warm and sunny!! I am not enough brave to say bye-bye winter but I think it's amost over!!!!

After cold week behind us,today in Split is sunny,warm with 10°C !Nice....

And finally my first official predictions for Europe summer 2011 !!!! You have to know that it is still 5 months to start of summer,so we should wait at least two or three months for final forecast....this what I release today is just my thoughs and predictions ... This forecast is based on :-Pacific sea surface temperature state:EL nino/La nina -Quasi biennal oscillation(QBO) -actual pattern situation in Europe -other seasonal forecasts - etc ... I will also make Europe divisions: SOUTHEAST EUROPE(BALKANS)-----I expect settled and pretty warm summer,but I don't think it will be extreme in any aspect(temperatures or precipitation)...It should be warmer than average around 1 or 2°C above with around normal precipitation.I expect here ridge of High Pressure very often in summer. EAST EUROPE(UKRAINE etc...) AND WEST RUSSIA----Here won't be heatwaves long and strong as last summer but it should again be little warmer than average.Precipitation around normal. SOUTHWEST EUROPE----Spanish,Portugal etc... should have warm summer with possible one or two strong heatwaves!Also I expect here drier than normal !This teritory should be frequently under HP.So I think CORE OF WARM WILL BE HERE(SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SPAIN AND ITALY) NORTH AND CENTRAL EUROPE-----Especially in central Europe(Germany,Poland) I expect lot of rain,lot of disturbances from northwest,so temperatures should be around or little below average with more than normal precipitation.Simillar in northern Europe! UK & IRELAND----Unfortunaly I predict centar of low pressure between Iceland and UK with lot of rain,storms ,and temperatures around normal(so I don't expect colder summer)..... So,after reading this you can make conclusion that stormtrack should be:Atlantic-UK-Denmark-Germany-Poland... BUT WE MUST KNOW THAT WE ARE ALL SERVANTS OF MOTHER NATURE AND SHE WILL DECIDE !

Isolated I totally agree with you ........I think you just said in few lines what will happen in next months in UK...cool spring,and big part of summer,possible little warm-up in the August.....This afternoon,in next few hours I will release my detailed summer forecast for Europe..stay tuned!

Hey SAB, I am very interested in your Australian weather...for years I am studying and predicting it....and I can tell you that I succesfully predicted a washout and very cool summer 2011 for you ,back in July of 2010!!!Believe me or not but I did it!! I am not very good for seasonal predicting in other parts of world but I also predicted your cold and wet summer of 2007/2008,and hot summer 2009/2010 if you remember...... And I can tell you that this actual warming up will last maybe 5-7 days,and then again rain and cooler weather is coming...I'm very sorry but I don't see February being hot and dry.... Maximum temperatures will not get very often above 30°C :nea: And for this poor summer you can blame negative IOD in combination with strong La nina.....