captain jack

Fair points made, I just do not have the time to study all the outputs, hence my reliability on others for information.

I do not profess to have the knowledge of some on here and cannot read the charts as well as many, so rely on the interpretations of others. my point is not in the least paranoid as I am not attached to the outcome. I just want to see a balanced analysis based on more factors than one operational run as that is how you learn. I think you are being disingenuous to suggest that some people on here do not 'troll' as you put it and I am certainly not using soundbites, just logical thinking.

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actually drive our weather are in our favour for upcoming 'winter weather' and I for one would trust this rather than six hourly computer predictions that will inevitably try to revert to the climatalogical norm. There are some great members like @Steve Murr, @nick sussex on here that aim to give us viable options as to what may happen based on each run but unfortunately there are others that just wish to hear their own voice and take pleasure in finding opportunities to disappoint the majority. It is going to get cold, it might snow, its still winter, enjoy!

Snowing heavily just East of Norwich! Looks 'Bootiful' Edit: Easing off, only light snow now.

Hi Tamara, I wish I knew what you were talking about, but deep down for some reason I know it makes sense! Thank you for your technical input into this sometimes emotional forum, you bring a professional analysis of the 'potential' that the charts and the stratospheric signals are showing. Please keep it up and Merry Christmas to you and all the rest of you mad weather nuts. What a forum!

Dirty Rotten Models!

Thank you for your reply Roger. I respect your opinion and advice and so basically at the moment due to the current chaotic predictions the past cannot predict the future!

Thank you for your reply, I missed that post from RJBW, must pay more attention!

Good evening, I don't post often do but follow this thread with interest and admire all who are brave enough to make predictions at the moment. This is indeed a volatile period of model watching and I for one have no idea how it is going to pan out, nor do I think most people have, although there have been some very good posts regarding the larger / longer term perspective rather than what each individual model run shows. Just a curious question. Why not look back to what a model was showing last week or 4 days ago and see if it has verified this week or 4 days hence? It just seems logical to me to try to see what was predicted (fair enough there will be various different scenarios) and what actually occurred in order to gain some idea of how accurate those various predictions were. I know there are verification stats available for each model but I rarely see anyone posting / confirming what has happened against what was predicted. I think when you have so many different models, run at numerous times, it can become extremely confusing for people trying to learn when totally contrasting posts are made regarding the outcome based on maybe just one particular run. I for one would find it easier if a more balanced perspective were taken using a consensus of all information. Shoot me if I'm talking b*****ks, but I am just trying to educate myself on what is overall a fantastic forum.

You're right it is like Narnia in the woods!

See you at 4.30pm then!

Just for you!

Steady!

Last year was fantastic. I always thought that moving down here from the North East would be good for business and bad for snow, but recently it has turned out good for both!

Born in the winter of '63 although I can't remember much about it! Too young for the best winter of recent times and too young to remember the glory boys of 1966 although I made up for it with the 2003 rugby world cup! I do remember growing up in Middlesbrough in the 70's and going to school in short trousers, making slides on the ice on the pavement and in the playground though. It seemed in those days like winter lasted for 3 months, one year there was enough snow to make an igloo in our road! Happy days!