Harve

This has little relevance to that particular column, but it does to the topic title of AGW: "Both sides of the argument and more reliance on science". The irony of this is that in the scientific community, there is no "both sides" to AGW, there's an overwhelming consensus. Yes, of course there are uncertainties of secondary effects, but the basic theory seems both simple to understand and almost completely incontestable? I don't come in here often, but it's very sad to see read Bornfromthevoid's post of the views of keyboard scientists overriding those of scientists who dedicate years and years to the subject. I'm interested in the extent to which the earth will warm, the effects away from temperature, and also, the psychology behind the phenomenon of climate scepticism. All are quite remarkable.

As a side note, I'm shocked at how mild / snowless your winters are. East Yorkshire isn't too far from me at all. And I'm pretty sure snow has fell and lay for at least one day on every January of the last 15 years, though I'm unsure of earlier. The same applies to February - although last year's was lucky in that the two occasions of lying snow didn't last the entire day, but were present at 9am. I'm not precise enough to record such details though. I did realise that at 350m in the Peak District was a little snowier than the further south and east, but I didn't realise it was to such a huge extent.

I fully believe in global warming, and yet I don't think this is directly related to it. It does, however, make such occurrences far more likely. Five consecutive warm months is due to synoptics, which are determined by climate in general, which can be influenced.

I fail to see how the GFS is an "indecisive* mess" and "needs to come to its senses"? It seems equally plausible as the others from my view (that is to say, I don't know the teleconnections, which are no guarantee of a certain sypnotics, anyway). I'd be wary of interpreting models in the way you want to be, as that's likely to bring more disappointment if you ignore the fly in the ointment. Don't dismiss a model as lacking credibility simply because it shows variability / not what you want to see!

It's not just Austria, this was France yesterday: That balcony is on the first floor! There is, unbelievably, a floor beneath it. I was in the resort a few weeks ago, and arrived to what was described as a "storm of the century". There, we also had difficulty distinguishing between ground floor / first storey, and working out whether you're looking at a field or a buried car park. It appears to have happened again!

Yes, the French pyrenees often have poor conditions. It's a shame that beginners aren't often told of these things. the French alps, Switzerland and Austria are generally far more reliable, especially if you hit the sweet spot where you can get snow from the south and the north-west.

The storminess of December was certainly the most interesting since it was coupled with plenty of days of sleet and snow falling, meaning that it rarely felt unseasonal, whilst still giving a sorely missed taste of Autumn. There was also the surprise thunderstorm on 6th October in a remarkably chilly temperature of 3c. The seemingly perpetual fog of February and November was also something different. Apart from that, it hasn't been too interesting. Although I do love the showery types of weather that we've experienced quite often this year.

A maximum of -8c on December 21st under an inversion in the Dove valley and a maximum of -6.6c according to buxtonweather.co.uk on the same day. According to here: http://www.ukweather...10/page__st__22 there was a -20.3c minimum in relatively nearby Alfreton on December 7th. Indeed, it dropped to -16c on the car thermometer on that morning a bit closer to home. Truly incredible.

I see what you mean. Wintry shower and sunny spell setups I feel have just as much a place in spring as thunderstorms do. A, cold bright day in April / May not getting close to double figures feels far warmer and pleasant than a mild, moist depression at 15c with gales, which I'd place in autumn if I wanted seasons to behave as expected.

If January continues in the same vein as December, and yet GP et. al's forecasts do come into fruition, at the beginning of February, it could make for an interesting statistic for a large drop from January to February CET. I suspect that it's quite rare, as it seems as though it's difficult to develop sustained cold after early-mid February. There are examples such as March 2006, though I wouldn't count that as too cold, nor would I say that its preceding December / January was overly mild. I've also read people saying that the severest of the cold of winter 1946-1947 didn't begin till late January. While this is true, they often infer that the rest of the winter had rampant mild - it didn't. Having said that, with 15 days of sleet / snow falling, this December didn't have rampant mildness, either. So, what I'm asking is, does anybody know the largest CET drop between those two months?

4.7c please.

Probably a CET of around 6c, and yet here there's been 13 days of sleet or snow falling*, which is actually more than last December. *At my location, of course.

I'm flying to the French Alps on Friday morning and it looks to be a nightmare! Snow and gales potentially delaying take-off at East Midlands airport are one issue but once I get there, it seems as though getting up the road to Val D'Isere (1800m) is going to be awful as it comes towards the end of the 70-90cm (!) that is forecast. Still, should we eventually make it, it looks to be an incredible week.

You can see 9 day weather forecasts for free by just using weather-forecast.com. For example: http://www.weather-f...orecasts/latest It functions exactly the same, with the GFS, except it focuses on settlements (though it shows a lot of them) and thus you can't specify the altitude. Though this one is for 1850m.

Eek, I have a flight from East Midlands on Friday morning! Would anyone know the likelihood of it being cancelled? A quick google tells me that wind isn't so much of a problem if it's a tailwind. The gales would be westerly and the runway faces eastwards so perhaps it won't be so bad? I'm clutching straws here!

Light snow has been falling on and off throughout the evening and afternoon, settling even in the valley bottoms at 100-150m.

Hardly, it's perfectly normal for Scandanavia to have snow cover in the winter, even during our most westerly / mildest winters. So it certainly doesn't guarantee an easterly.

7.0c maximum across the CET zone today? Wow, the maximum today here, just on the north-east edge of the zone, was 1.0c.

Showers are shown to be be parked over the Brecon Beacons at that moment, so would definitely be wintry. I'm not too sure about how much snow will fall from showers once they cross into England.

Yes, I'm only at 100m right now, on the Derbyshire / Staffordshire border, and the rain has turned to sleety snow. I imagine the snow's settling above 200m.

The 'industry' maintains that global temperatures have been rising for decades / centuries, but particularly fast since 1960-1990. It also happens that the CET has been rising too. I'm sure that within the context of the last 350 years the CET in those decades was above average, though don't quote me on that. If they really wanted to use a cold average as a benchmark then they'd use something like 1710-1740. 5.0 please.

Early-mid May 2010 had snow showers in the Peak District down to ~300m, I'm sure that snow fell down to sea level in parts of Scotland. Mid June 2011 had snow reported on ukweatherworld at 450m in the Brecon Beacons, the same system that brought settling snow on Snowdon. I believe May 1996 was also rather snowy. Late April 1981 brought (so I'm told) 2-3 feet (!) of snow here and killed many newborn lambs from the intense drifting.However, perhaps the most notable very-late snowfall was in early June 1975: "1. SNOW and SLEET occurred in June as far south as the London area during the first few days of June 1975 (sleet as far south as Portsmouth). (also noted on 12th Jun 1791). The snow melted away almost immediately, except over the higher parts of central and northern England. This is thought to be the first time since July 1888, that snow has been reported so widely so far south in summer. More than 10 cm of FRESH SNOW over the highlands of Scotland. SNOW (circa 2.5cm/1 inch) stops play (subsequently abandoned) at a CRICKET MATCH [ Derbyshire v. Lancashire ] at Buxton, Derbyshire on the 2nd." http://www.hollinsclough.org.uk/weather.htm While a rarity, it certainly isn't limited to the 'peaks of Highland Scotland'. I think people tend to forget that there are areas between lowland England and Highland Scotland! The climate at, say, 600m in the Peak District is far removed from either of those places. Scottish Highland peaks are perhaps the only place where August snow has fell, which has happened in both 2010 and 2011.

It ranged between 0.5c and 3.5c in the upper Dove valley (200-250m) an hour ago. Although this was measured using inaccurate car thermometers. So there's a fair inversion then.

Yes, I'm not too sure how the low in the north sea just stops and deepens, which brings in the northerly. If there's an explanation for this then it's certainly encouraging, however.

http://actualite.lachainemeteo.com/actualite-meteo/2011-11-20-10h58/previsions-saisonnieres---apercu-de-l-hiver-actualise-14514.php I believe this is the French equivalent to the MetOffice and not just some commercial weather site. It seems to forecast the exact opposite of what GP and others seem to be hinting. December "increasingly colder and disturbed"...