Mike the Fish
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Posts posted by Mike the Fish
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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
The problem I have with the saying "Models don't handle breakdowns well" is that it doesn't apply for a portion of our region. Less cold air may not move right across the country, but 99.9% of the time it does move in to the South or Southwest.
Battleground events are notoriously poor for here, but It's something I have grown accustomed to, fortunately.
Agreed, I was talking more generally about models handling breakdowns, of course location, elevation are key, but my point being is once you have the cold air in situ, its the position and track of the low pressure that will decide if you get rain, sleet or snow or nothing at all and some models particularly gfs, tend to over do the deepness of pressure, altering its track. Many a night I have watched a channel low primed to strike, only to veer off into northern France leaving us with a snizzle shower lol
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Keep the faith guys, seeing lots of negativity here.
I wouldn't pay too much attention to the models other than the hi res ones, forecasting snow is difficult even for the most experienced meteorologist and is more of a now cast situation, so many factors involved. Little features will pop up at short notice and will surprise many. Remember, the warnings are only a guide and i think will change over the next few days.
Once the cold is established across the uk its often difficult to budge and in my opinion the models dont handle the breakdowns well. Yes, coastal fringes are always going to struggle slightly because of the sea. As many have said the track of the low pressure system is key here and but i would bet money the position currently progged by the models at the moment will not be where it ends up.
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1 minute ago, Rapodo said:
I was confident we would get something this morning after seeing GFS and GFSP bring the precip further west now seeing those fax charts I'm not sure anymore.
This is going down to radar watch unfortunately a 50 mile shift west could bring the likes of Dorset and IOW in on it more. But for now my expectations have completly gone so my thinking is we get nothing and hope for a surprise on radar.
We may then be turning our hopes to this low coming in next week.
Fingers and toes crossed for everyone!
Experience tells me that we won't have a clearer picture until about 24 hours before the event and even then over the years i've seen shifts of up to 50-100 miles, at very short notice.
Forecasting snow, accumulations and locations is extremely difficult even for the most experienced meteorologists. I certainly wouldn't pay any attention to those accumulation charts, they are about as much use as a chocolate teapot.
Have a feeling us South/South Westerners may be pleasantly surprised next week.
Keep your nerve peeps!
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Hey guys
Big yawn, coming out of hibernation for the upcoming cold spell, hope everyone is well.
So, having been watching the models over the last week, my take is that there is still a big amount of uncertainty regarding depth of cold, longevity, amounts of precipitation and type. Yes, the South East, East Anglia and Central England are better positioned with regards to prolonged snow from the east. The majority in the South West will probably struggle to see much other than maybe a fleeting shower, however as we go through the week our chances increase from slider lows, but as many have said position is key, too far north and we get rain and too far south we get nothing, hit the sweet spot and we get plastered.
Hold your nerve guys and keep the faith, our chance will come!!
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4 minutes ago, Singing in the Snow said:
Showing lightly in Poole Dorset but not really doing much at the moment
Thanks Singing in the Snow, someone said it was raining in Poole!
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2 minutes ago, mattyj said:
Hi light snow at mo heavy later for a bit if this to be correct https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcn9hc1es#?date=2019-02-01
Thanks Matty, looks promising
I heard someone say it was raining?
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I'm at work guys (No Windows), can someone let me know what's happening in Poole/Bournemouth please, nowcast and forecast?
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2 hours ago, Nights King said:
No idea just means your not covered if you crash... I suppose argument is you had ample warning etc.
Guys who told you that? I'm an Insurance Broker and that is complete rubbish.
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23 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Whiteout here.
Bless you Jay, that is not a whiteout my friend, I think you may see one tomorrow if the winds continue as forecast. I think you are in a good spot
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38 minutes ago, Rapodo said:
If only we can get this system to push east and south a bit more everyone will be in the game then. Not looking forward to a rain to snow event or snow to rain. Everyone's needs to get outside and blow as hard we can lol
I have a feeling you may well be surprised. In my experience, these low pressure systems are very hard to predict in terms of where they track, intensity, but based on past experience I would not be surprised if this ends up tracking further east and south meaning more of the SW are affected and remaining on the right side of the snow/rain possibilities. No technical data to back up my theory only life experience. I think how the low pressure interacts with the intense cold air is unpredictable and this could well be a now cast situation with met warnings popping up a short notice.
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12 minutes ago, Rapodo said:
Already has gone Pete Tong. Quite a few people with egg on there faces as far as I'm concerned and I'll hold my hands up and say I'm one of them. Was expecting far worse than this but unfortunately it's easy to get caught up in the hype from the mad thread and look at your own thoughts. Biggest lesson ever learnt from me this year! Never again.
Don't give up just yet, still 3 days to go and the models are still struggling to get a handle on the low pressure in terms of track, intensity, how far north it gets. I don't think the models do particularly well in dealing with the intense cold air that will be in situ. I have seen it before where the low has be progged to track up to the midlands and not even made it out of France. Some of the models have already shown the low stalling. I think its track will be much more important. Keep the faith, lots more twists and turns to come me thinks!!
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Keep the faith for Sunday guys, in my experience over the years these low pressure systems are unpredictable even up to 6 -12 hours out and more often than not tend to track further south than modelled.
Now, i'm not saying we are going to be knee deep in snow, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this tracking further south than progged and some us snow starved southerners seeing the white stuff.
Anyone else follow my thoughts?
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Well good morning fellow southerners and south westerners.
It looks like I've managed to drag my sorry rear end out of summer hibernation just in time to see the latest possibilities of snow for us snow starved southerners stand on a knife edge.
Track south Mr Low Pressure god damn it lol.
Hope everyone is well.
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14 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:
well.....the 06z shows later next week some decent cold uppers and the winds getting south of east and dragging some "precip" off the Channel onto southwestern coastal areas.
should get some really light snizzle from that.
it's only a week away.....can't see it changing much.....
Famous last words lol.............. A week in weather forecasting is a life time. 48hrs is about as far as I trust and even then snowcasting can come down to looking out the window.
That said, that setup would be much more favourable for our neck of the woods so fingers crossed.
Hop on the roller coaster but beware its gonna be a bumpy ride.
Snizzle lol, I had a very light dusting of snizzle on the car this morning, tiny little ice crystals.
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1 hour ago, Certain kind of fool said:
much as I love living in Bournemouth we really are relegation fodder when it comes to snow. It's almost embarrassing at times.
Well done to all who have seen some so far and who might see some more yet! that band travelling southeast is a massive fail for central southern England I think. Going to be too far east.
Agreed, we are always too far South and either too far west or too far east or its all rain. One day our time will come again! To be honest be always tend to fair better when the cold air has established itself and the mild air from the Atlantic tries to push back in and if you are very lucky the fabled Channel Low.
Seems quite a few fellow South/South Western folk are also suffering from no snow hangovers!!!
Back to the drawing board (Charts) to see when our next let down will be lol
Oh the joy of British Winter.
Congrats to those that go some of the white stuff!
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4 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:
Nice big white snowflakes mixed into the rain in Bournemouth
Yes Dorsetbred, very sleety mix at the moment and I am literally spitting distance from the sea!!
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6 minutes ago, jethro said:
How central is that central bit? Any chance it could include some of us here in the west?
Ha Ha Jethro, your snow obsession is impressive!!!!
I'm always the optimist but even my half full glass is now empty having drunk it all in despair. Hick
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26 minutes ago, Gibby said:
Your all taking to much notice of these weather apps. They are next to useless and not meant for enthusiasts like us with time better spent on looking at radars and temperature gauges. My own take is that yes some with altitude will see some snow soon but lower lying areas may end up disappointed. I think there's a far greater chance over the SE after dark. We might get lucky with some snow showers overnight though with ice becoming a major issue from quite early this evening as the rain/snow mix clears.
That is a great post Martin, as a new poster I didn't want to start telling people not to place too much faith in these weather apps for fear of being told to do one before making friends!!
Am I right in thinking these apps only use raw data?
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Temperature and dew points fairly steady here in Bournemouth.
I feel the rain band will have passed before the cold air digs in.
I think that other than the usual suspects ie. Dartmoor, Salisbury etc there are going to be a lot of disappointed people.
Is it me or has the media gone crazy, they seem to be reporting snowmageddon coming
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1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Well it is in my video from December 2010
Jay!!! Had me searching for Cardiff Webcams then lol
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4 minutes ago, Chul said:
Think my Southampton weather app may have a glitch
Someone has taken the temperature sensor indoors lol
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It does seem the forecasters are really struggling to get a handle on this event especially for us folk down south.
I guess its because its so marginal it literally could go either way and far too many factors involved in forecasting snow i.e you can have 6 inches of snow in one area and 5 miles down the road it can be pouring with rain.
Who would be a meteorologist in balmy Britain, tough gig!!
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21 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:
After many hours of rain and warm ground temperatures, apart from the nutters in the M3 traffic as they panic (oh and the M3 bump south of Basingstoke)(Oh and the speed camera on the spur road) I would think you'll be driving in snow but unlikely to cause major hiatus.
Agreed, I think you will be fine, I think this region is unlikely to see large amounts of settling snow, I'm trying to be optimistic but my heart says this is more likely to be a rain/sleet fest
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19 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:
Welcome to the friendliest crew on NW, hop on for the ride..
Thank you my fellow south dorset friend, I think its gonna be a bumpy ride today.
South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted
I think the South West and South, especially close to the coast are really unlucky with this, we are always just on the wrong side of marginal and whilst everyone else south of the M4 is knee deep in snow, our lamp post watching is very much a cold rain affair lol. Can make a person bitter over the years lol.