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ZONE 51

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Everything posted by ZONE 51

  1. ZONE 51
    Nothing on TORRO site yet..
  2. ZONE 51
    Bit quite around my zone with the weather, thick cloud and a breeze.. calm before the storm perhaps.., things appeared to have slowed down here compared to what was expected now 2 days ago, I think the action in the west is likely to sweep east as the very strong winds set in blowing the weather features into the SE. very interesting!
  3. ZONE 51
    Hail parameter, green blob on this map for the SW
  4. ZONE 51
    Today rain is likely to start intensifying across the west and north, the east side seeing this developing as we go through this evening, particularly the Central Southern and SE. I have done a map, the orange is where I expect the largest rainfall totals between now and Monday morning, before 7am, and for Monday plenty of action too keep watch for-are post about this tonight if I'm on. Heavy downpours, thunderstorms, although I have put lightning symbols for the west, I expect these storms to move east tonight...also widespread gales developing at times and severe gusts in places. (The maps are created using several precipitation models data / other)
  5. ZONE 51
    Yes gusts. (although upgraded now)
  6. ZONE 51
    OK this can do for the weekend...
  7. ZONE 51
    Recent satellite image, have set the image here to show the storm over the Atlantic Gales or severe gales on the way. example of this I zoomed into the wind gusts of the MO site, showing gusts 30-40 widespread-and up to 50mph in places inland across the SE on the 3 days ahead, very windy and very wet at times.
  8. ZONE 51
    NAE 12z @ +48 (ppn accumulated) Looking at NAE some large totals tomorrow up to 38mm Central and southern half of Scotland, 20-25mm perhaps more over parts of Southern England. Watching a small feature that could skim the south tonight, see the little dip in the isobars where I have indicated, and also the next developing storm system for Sunday/Monday (NAE chart) To add the Jet stream for Sunday, NAE: I should add the combined chart, it does look very potent and large scale, but is this the last of the storms? Jet+SLP Sunday GFS
  9. ZONE 51
    EURO4 ppn @+21.. EURO4 ppn @+48 (accumulated) Where is the data???
  10. ZONE 51
    Long range forecasters are mentioning that the Jet stream should 'settle' down.... what this means is that not such active wind storms, also the rains should ease down within two weeks? as winds change from the milder direction to a more cold one, still is cold now but talking about really cold air, but this means more likely snow rather than rain.
  11. ZONE 51
    http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/101278-03012014-travelling-low-topped-supercell-rfmi/ Interesting
  12. ZONE 51
    Welcome to the forum! lots more action to come this weekend lots more concern lots more boats sold?.............well thinking about getting one.. To anyone-Quick question wanted to ask earlier don't mind feeling stupid asking this but how safe is the reservoirs from over topping their banks?? am I right in thinking it is not going to get high enough as is drained off somewhere as the rains fill them up? could here the water hitting the sides on Friday only heard this once in Dec when sounded like a small boat bashing the banks during the storm! sounds like the water is high up there!
  13. ZONE 51
    Rather complex weather system moving into southern UK by the morning, just developing into SW England as I type, this rainstorm moving across S-UK and then up to northern areas, the most prolonged and largest rainfall totals as being indicated over southern areas topping up through Saturday (today) the concern of such large rainfall totals here possibly 25mm that's about an inch widespread with more than this over some areas, the data I use is indicating central South and the SE seeing some of the highest totals, NAE 0000-0600hrs this shows the heavy rain moving in overnight and by morning really set in, 0300-0900hrs, very much alot of rain shown here.. 0900-1500hrs, Large totals being collected over the western side of Scotland too, as being indicated here, other models really debating position of the largest rainfall totals today, so most places at risk but it's S-UK and W-Scotland on NAE here that is indicating where the biggest deluges today could be. I have done the map and highlighted these areas as orange, the yellow being the risk zone for heavy rain/totals today. Some areas of Wales and NW England have large totals being indicated here, my maps are made combining model data using overlays, for example a few ppn models rather then a solo are showing quite a lot of rain for parts of the south increasing the chances of the event happening? so I combine the chances/risk of the event taking place this way and so = probability% +risk of flooding due to saturated ground/drainage problems = risk.. I'm working on the maps! I also if possible update the maps as radar and other data comes in, it could be that other areas are highlighted orange! I like to put the yellow for 12mm+ accumulated rain/ppn during saturated ground
  14. ZONE 51
    Took this pic of an anvil this evening, then did some work on it for monochrome/noise effect:
  15. ZONE 51
    Lightning radar: Wind gusts: Images are of the storm today around from around 12:30/12:45 this deep rumbling thunderstorm moved over Stanwell and Heathrow! torrential rain the very squally gusts and hail-this was in the mix with the rain and small, not settled though like some areas north of here that got white out seen some amazing pics of the hail! for the thunder at least 5 maybe 7/8 deep heavy booming flat shakers, 2 were very bright lightning, one was a shocking thunderbolt. was dusk at lunch time. It's January, quite a surprise today and exciting too. Here is a radar snap of these Tstorms: Data from the Metoffice
  16. ZONE 51
    Today (Friday) another storm system sweeping in from the Atlantic, quite a concern and it's likely that this big system brings precipitation. Large amounts of rain falling onto extremely saturated ground today has no where to go, nothing can absorb this water anymore. The rainfall over parts of Scotland particularly the western side could amount to over 2 inches or 50mm+ I have highlighted this as orange on my rain alert map below. all areas at risk from heavy showers/rain but the areas within the yellow shaded zone are where we are likely to see the amounts of rainfall over 12mm and possibly 25mm (keep watch of forecasts for any snow in north..) This is rainfall amounts. (Image - removed previous map) The rain especially across the south coming as bands of heavy/intense downpours, perhaps thundery too. The look ahead into the weekend yet more heavy rain, really quite incredible with what has been and what could turn up with the rains and winds over the days ahead, and not only this we have the floods from tidal waters as the deep low pressure+wind+high tides combine to push up big waves around coastlines, there is a thread on this in this section. Note that Gale to Severe Gale force winds developing today over many areas with this storm. **update** Band of very heavy rain moving across southern England now heading into the SE and EA soon, some very heavy bursts from this feature. Updated map, after latest NAE ppn data. Note did not have access to some data earlier as per late update to include areas with dotted lines to show this update.
  17. ZONE 51
    Great post John Pike always informative. Thanks for the time you spend (where possible) on such long posts! The Sunday storm looks big! looks like something from the day after tomorrow movie!, anyone on to the accelerated clomate change theory yet!! .. no hose pipe ban this spring.. one thing though I expect one big springtime bloom! ah depends if the snows set in end of this month quite possibe were in for 2 solid months of a freeze, really scary thought for some I'd expect especially after these incredible amount of storms
  18. ZONE 51
    There is a band of heavy rain continuing to move from east to west over all areas this evening into the night, quite a lump of rainfall now affecting the SE mod-hvy bursts in there. There is more heavy downpours through Friday, some intense rain. Are take a look at the data closely later and post up on this later (hopefully!)
  19. ZONE 51
    I think so I can post some info on this:
  20. ZONE 51
    Stunning night lights and satellite, I can add to this and post a MetO image here of the developing storm: Incredible how widespread the floods are and now a tidal threat very much a concern.
  21. ZONE 51
    Hi all would like a few views on my wind grid I have designed, the below image is a DEMO, I'm hoping it makes sense without to much explanation! the grid is in MPH. Thanks. Date/day possibly some info would be attached somewhere maybe on a side bar or on bottom of image) (Actual grid to be used got alerts) (Note image alignment would be better on finished project)
  22. ZONE 51
    Squally gusts and heavy downpour (showery type) here (next to Heathrow ap) moving from southwest it seems. A lot more of this overnight, be interesting for some tonight! especially as hail and thunder is possible.
  23. ZONE 51
    The heavy showery conditions with hail and thunder also with further squally winds have really set in over the southern half of the UK, and are set to last for much of the night adding to further flood problems here, heavy rain may continue over Scotland tonight and some heavy showers or rain over other areas too. Thursday daytime looks like a break for a while, but won't be long as the next weather front sweeps in, are post one NAE charts to show this: ...
  24. ZONE 51
    Just looking at this image of possible ball lightning last night (thread on UKWW) Taking a reduced gamma filter to it can certainly see a twirly tall tail.. did this come from the sky?? photo on the right is from this site - http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/10907814.UFO__lightning_ball_or_Chinese_Lantern__Mysterious_light_spotted_over_Poole_on_New_Year_s_Eve/?ref=mr http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/101232-rfmi-ball-lightning-poole-dorset-3112/page__pid__884229#entry884229 Think it might have been a meteor, ball lightning or just a reflection, or other as mentioned ... On UKWW they think it's a Lantern, wonder if a video would spring up at some point!
  25. ZONE 51
    SANTA??
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