2.png.1338c08acdc8dfc1ed37a4ecbc377c2b.png)
ZONE 51
-
Posts
3,778 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by ZONE 51
-
-
these troughs are like buses
Yeah but a trough say predicted for 1300hrs is more likely to turn up than a bus at a shown time on the table.....
-
1
-
-
Anyone feel like we are going in circles ?The weather has been in this position a few times.Don't think anything can be discarded ,Met office must be looking east to west constantly,but as things stand we are still gently tugging the weather from the west .tonights models show once again we are close to dragging in a cold pool. Until we lose that cold pool in the Scandinavia this could run for some time .It's starting to become very interesting
Likely to be there until at least March.. plenty of opportunities for the very cold. Potentially CFS is on to something for a very cold spell early Feb from the northeast (well the one I use anyway indicates this!) but unfortunately could keep the drift of wet weather as it is now, but with the quite boring type of cold too!! even could end up quite settled cold/dry damp/fog with a high in wrong place for real cold.
-
1
-
-
The 12Z Steve Murr model goes for the 'Super Easterly' on February 1st. Unbelievable blocking to our North. That is one verrrrrrry powerful High Pressure system:
(Steve Murr Sea Level Pressure + H500 chart for February 1st. The High to our North really helping to get all those Lows sliding underneath us. Very low thicknesses too, with those blues and purples, so some super heavy convective snow likely)
This evolution happened due to his model showing a strong amplified High to our West with a elongated trough alligned perfectly to the West of it drawing some extremely warm towards the Western Greenland vortex, via extremely warm Southerly winds, killing the Polar Vortex off in that area. A very strong Greenland/Eastern Greenland High formed. The pacific ridging helped to play a part with this too, with some of the blocking over Scandinavia merging with the Eastern Greenland block on that 12Z run. No wonder that block is so strong.
The Steve Murr model then showed the Lows taking on an even more Southerly track through the UK (as shown in the chart above) with increasingly colder air filtering in from the East and North-East.
Below shows some seriously chilly 850 hPa temperatures affecting the UK, with the 850 hPa's getting as low as -21*C for the North-East of the UK.
I did think it would be a cold outlier in relation to the Super Murr Ensembles on the line graph below. These are just the ones for Steve Murr's house, though. But can you believe it? - the 12Z Steve Murr operational run is actually a mild outlier. So the actual outlook could turn out to be even colder. However, aside from the fact that the operational model is one of the warmer members (but still clearly exceptionally chilly), the confidence for such polar bear like conditions seems rather high with the general tight clustering of the lines on the graph. I don't expect the Steve Murr model to change much on future runs, thanks to such strong ensemble support, except maybe for chances for the cold to improve a little further.
Fingers crossed that the others models, such as the ECMWF (which does sort of seem to be heading in the right way), start falling more in line with the Steve Murr model (if it's mega chilly and potentially rather snowy conditions you're after). Some caution needed as always, though, since the potential is in FI.
The Steve Murr model is highly regarded by the NOAA, and even the Met Office, so would be surprised if something like this doesn't come off. Maybe this Winter could be saved for the cold and snow fans afterall.
(Edit: probably should add in case it causes further confusion, that for any new model reader's reading this, the SM model isn't a real model. Just for a little bit of fun really).
-
6
-
-
See on the 72 HR FAX the front just of the east coast/north sea, this front being blocked and sitting there, got a screen grab of this from the other way of looking at the surface pressures and fronts, don't see this type of front that often:
This is what I'm talking about on the image above:
Should post this link:
-
Oh great! Now watch the prices of tyres go through the flamin roof! Another mad expense to contend with along with everything else.
More worried about the toxic pollution
-
WOW!!! thanks Jason amazing pics on there!
(see link posted above)
-
4
-
-
Heavy downpours on and off here (more so than what hit during afternoon) could see some heavy rain more prolonged tomorrow which would enhance the flood problems. Also watching the Sat risk looks as though the worst rain over central south into southwest at this stage-where this occurs well over an inch (25mm+)
-
-
The iceberg keeps tryin to get in but keeps getting melted by the blowtorch.
The Scandi high is in development, although it is quite possible to remain in this pattern of mild/wet Atlantic flows but with few cold periods thrown in, am seeing signs of a slow change, more and more occluded fronts, less wind, a slow down, changes to the jetstream.. I would expect that once developments to the n/e take hold and move in then there stick for a few weeks I expect...(very cold)
-
1
-
-
Bb, certainly looking like so, expecting some heavy rain showers some downpours sweeping through the region..some thundery I think, hard to say exactly who gets what where but unstable air into the SW heading this way going by GFS!
-
1
-
-
unfortunately this model has been shown to be utterly lacking this winter. In November it was showing blocking for Dec/Jan & Feb!
As for its latest output, here's the last 12 runs averaged for February...
What model was showing 2 months of Atlantic storms the odd snow flake and a great flood??
-
2
-
-
Have done an alert rain map for Thursday (today) Heavy downpours at times some may be thundery, the heavy rain over eastern England should move away later then moving up into eastern Scotland (have highlighted the heavy rain now affecting the Humber area)
Other areas heavy downpours some lines of these coming through, have highlighted the yellow as areas most at risk of the worst downpours to day and flooding risk.
Northern Ireland have highlighted the high risk of prolonged rain 'rain chain' these heavy rainfalls of continued showers affecting here into Friday piling into the same areas mostly the eastern side, so quite a risk of flooding here.
In the conditions of floods I use my yellow tone for 12mm+ and orange for 20-30mm or more.
-
Some heavy showers now heading into the region (looking at latest radar)
Edit.. have now arrived here
-
Looking though CFS could not say less than a good chance of cold and wintry February, many Polar and Arctic blasts being indicated by the model, also one or two Siberian beasts.
I would imagine so close to the month now that the model is very much on to something...
-
5
-
-
CFS - 1 Feb
Something to keep lookin out for on the GFS!
-
2
-
-
Can get a bit techy in there SB, another language at times especially when the cold lets people down that want it!
MUDDLED?
new language. "if you want to learn the language called muddled please visit....
-
2
-
-
John heres the GFS for the 20 Jan:
Note the blue blob of ppn over the SE corner here ^^ still low pressure but wide isobars
as per the light wind flow on the esembles you just posted.
-
4
-
-
Not bothered not doing anything wrong but it's just the point isn't it, of not feeling that you are being spied on left right and center...
Another thing different subject how long until pavement tax! or £1 per km to use the side walk!
-
Now
they sold me a computerwith a chip in it that knows what I'm doing OFFLINE as well as online... well knew it would get to this point...errr just that they done it for years...(apparently) -
Just read what weather said. So going to post some charts up for readers on this. some charts here compare for Thursday and today (so you can see the bigger difference in upper temperatures to today)
NAE
chart 1=Height 500hpa
2=Height 850hpa
1-
2-
Troughs showery but thundery and can see the unstable airflow on the GFS LI here:
This is early but moves north and east.
-
Normally the jet stream pushes north in the summer and south in the winter, passing over us in the seasons of Spring and Autumn. Previous years have seen the jet stream get stuck across us during the summer hence the run of bad summers between 2007 and 2012. This did not happen last summer. This year, the jet stream is running across us during the winter (although with a bit more venom) and is struggling to get south, and so I am expecting it to be to our north again come spring. That being said I think the warm summer of 2013 could be repeated in 2014, but it may not take as long as it did in 2013 to get going.
Along with warmer weather will be some decent Spanish plumes, but it won't be the relentless rain of 2007 or 2012.... just a prediction (hopecast)
Exactly my thoughts. Expecting a return to the thundery summers of the 90s. My theory(I had said this 1-2 years ago) is that increase in snowfall especially the southeast during winter+very cold, decrease in thundery plumes from south, a connection is there I think. (look at the 90s with mild winters and thundery summers (winters more out of the 10 were mild than cold)) This winter and summer might just confirm my thoughts (not good for snow fans)
Affected mainly the north we didn't have to many of those bad summers here, especially 2010
-
1
-
-
Could this one be closed Thank you!
-
Recent radar image (approx 1 hour ago)
Band of rain some heavy from Scotland down to SW England.
Zooming in to the south:
A pulse of heavy rain heading towards the SE/EA for this evening/night.
A cold front is moving from the west to the east through this evening and overnight followed by troughs of heavy showers.
GFS 12z Thickness 500/1000hpa (darker greens to the west are cooler air following CF)
12z NAE 1800-0000hrs ppn:
12z NAE(up to 3am)
Shows a heavy area of rain developing over Central northern England (Midlands up to Yorkshire) this is shown to affect through the night, so some heavy rainfall here I expect overnight
12z NAE 0000-0600hrs ppn:
Need to look out for heavy showers around for Thursday for many places. Heavy rain could affect the east of Scotland and then the north of Scotland though Thursday.
12z NAE 0900-1500hrs ppn:
Thursday daytime NAE indicates a shower line (rain streamer?) up the Irish sea, now this clipping into the east side of Northern Ireland and could affect for a long period of time.
12z NAE 1200-1800hrs ppn:
The model indicates showers lines affecting southern and western coast through Thursday some getting inland I would expect.
6z EURO4 1200-1800hrs ppn:
EURO4 indicates the inland showers more clearly, see the heavy deep blue are on the tip of N-Ireland, these moving inland and there are MO warnings out for the downpours to affect Northern Ireland on Thrs/Fri.
12z EURO4 ppn acc up to midnight Friday (Thrs night)
Highest amounts: 30mm being indicated for the east side of N-Ireland. 10-12mm SE/EA. 20 perhaps isolated pockets of 30mm for Central south-this could hit the SE. 10-20mm the SW. up to 20mm Wales.
possible 20mm for Central northern England overnight.
This is one models precipitation accumulations this evening, through Thrs and up to Midnight 17/1. (not inclu Fri) other models show similar but different slightly varied areas.
So some places seeing extra surface flooding and the watch is on for rain affecting Northern Ireland Thur/Fri. Are update were and when possible is any changes.
12z NAE 2100hr - surface pressure (low pressure on the scene)
GFS -Surface Pressure Tendency for Thursday (tmw)1500hrs:
Low pressure bringing bands/showers of heavy and thundery rain but not all areas would get them to severe. The outlook is for more of the same.
(don't have time now to do any rain maps but are take a look later if I can to do a map for Thursday)
-
Going to be doing a gallery on here soon of some incredible images have collected from around the web, "The Worlds most dramatic weather images" or something titled like that..
Also possibly a topic on climate and increased frequency of severe weather events.
I share with you a tastier of the Worlds wildest weather-maybe this title!
(here are 10 of the collection of weather photos on my computer that are for the coming gallery each one placed into a same sized background to enable easier viewing)
-
8
-
Heavy Rainfall and Flood Watch February 2014
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
Friday 17 January (Today)
Recent radar images show heavy showers with some very heavy downpours over southern and western England and south Wales, some of these also clipping the north Wales coast, heavy showers over the eastern side of Northern Ireland, some also affecting the Isle of man too.
Some Heavy rain could affect eastern parts of Scotland and also Shetland today.
For the rest of tonight and through Friday continuing with much the same conditions and affecting the same areas as mentioned above. Can't rule out heavy showers in other places but the areas mentioned is where I expect the heaviest and largest rainfall totals on Friday.
Precipitation max accumulation data (up to 0000hrs today)
12z EURO4:
18z NAE:
12z NAVGEM:
12z CMC:
18z GFS:
18z GFS Surface Pressure Tendency 1500hrs:
Indicates steady to slightly rising pressure generally, falling pressure far north.
1800hrs:
Indicates steady/rising pressure generally.
Rain warning map for today:
Have done an alert map to highlight the heavy rain and surface flooding risk areas for today.
Flooding continues and likely increasing that risk for some areas today with the heavy downpours.
UPDATE 4AM BASED ON LATEST RADAR expected heaviest rain downpours are moving a little further north, prolonged downpours merging now across the SE as per forecast.
Map update to include areas more north of London area, and areas northeast of Bristol channel (Worcester)
Risk of gusty winds, lightning and Thunder also some hail.