Cwmbran Eira
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Posts posted by Cwmbran Eira
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Interesting and depressing record
https://twitter.com/TheSnowDreamer/status/1760007597913190455
Interesting summer that followed the previous record though, some hope maybe.
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/Summer-1959.htm
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keithlucky snowing here right now. Covering quite quickly
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Jeez. These last 2 winters have been horrendous. Maybe it's my age but i'm starting to properly hate this season. And before anyone says "you can't change the weather", i know that but doesn't mean i have to like it.
Maybe this year feels even worse because of the dreadful Spring and Summer last year. We desperately need a prolonged dry spell now. The odd dry weeks we've had are not drying things out enough. The 1st downpour, like today, then everything is saturated again and it feels like you're back to square one.
We now have a late season SSW to look forward too, i really hope that doesn't mean a cold and dull spring again. Or maybe its the only way we can get a proper dry spell now.
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Morning all. Another winter storm is upon us.
Just wondering what website/app people find the most accurate for wind speed. I tend to look at BBC (metogroup), met office and XC weather (GFS I believe). What I can see at the moment is XC weather is over playing current wind gusts by and estimated 20mph. It’s also showing the highest maximum wind speed later today around 15mph above the others. Which is pretty standard in my experience. -
1 hour ago, freeze for all said:
I can 1 million percent guarantee, if it was rain that was forecast, it would definitely hit us
. You’re spot on there.
it does looks like yet another uneventful chilly spell.
I’m seriously enjoying the dry weather so not too disappointed this time.
Glad I’ve learnt my lesson and haven’t told family and friends to prepare for snowmageddon again
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Yes, light snow/graupel here
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Met office 2023 summary here
Quite a localised picture in terms of anomalies. A dryer Western Scotland shows how weather systems/jet stream took a more southerly track. I do remember quite unusual patterns where we saw several low pressure systems tracking south or actually coming from a southerly direction as apposed to westerly or south westerly.
Thanks for the contribution all! some great information. Fingers crossed for a dryer 2024
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6 hours ago, Loadsa2000 said:
32.6mm of rain here yesterday and 85% humidity
343mm off rain this month much more will have to start building my ark
We really need a prolonged dryer period now. This year has been very wet and dull, a shock to the system after the 2022 scorcher. I won’t be sorry to see the end of this year weather wise.
fingers crossed for something a lot more interesting to start 2024
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Yes, that’s does make 2023 unusual. The chart clearly shows these periods flat lining. But July onwards has really built up the totals.
Unfortunately the link does t take you to the chart.
Starlings Roost Weather
STARLINGSROOST.DDNS.NET
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3 hours ago, Matty88 said:
Despite what a number of the more senior posters will tell you in the model output thread, and yes I get that the background signals, El Nino etc etc all point towards a more mobile Westerly based pattern, however, in the bigger picture the weather tends to always find a way of balancing itself out - and after a prolonged period of a barrage of LP's I have had the feeling for some time that HP will find a way in - somehow - and the models DO seem to gradually paint this picture, not many can deny this.
You look at most of the ensemble members and charts and the theme is HP will be having an influence in some form or another, and whilst doing so ALSO potentially disrupting the direction of travel of the jet. The more potent PV may well play in favour in this scenerio ie sending a charge/charges of Polar air our way and into NW Europe.
So some interesting ingredients on the table going into December currently... those are my thoughts anyway!
This is exactly my thoughts. We've had an incredibly wet 5 months. It can't go on. Although a wet December is the form horse for El Nino years i've had the feeling for a while this year might be different due to this long period of above average rainfall.
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2 hours ago, Sky Full said:
Definitely a surprise. Yesterday afternoon I was forecast to get 17mm of rain today but this morning it’s just 2.5mm! I’m not complaining, but it has occurred to me that quite a lot of active weather has tracked further south than expected recently, and I’m wondering if that’s a trend or just a coincidence?
Yes, same here. I noticed XC weather was the 1st to change the forecast to little or no rain when updated yesterday afternoon. BBC followed in the evening but the met office continued to show persistent heavy rain all morning. I believe XC weather use the GFS model. An interesting comparison with short term forecasting
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I've been following a great website - Starlings Roost Weather - which is fantastic for weather data and trends.
Its currently showing Central England having the wettest year (up to the 12th November) in a record set going back to 1931 and most other regions top 5.
Will be interesting to see where 2023 finishes.
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21 hours ago, wimblettben said:
I could see a distant storm here that I think was in Mid Wales yesterday evening.
Started being able to see lightning as it got darker but there seemed to be more cloud to ground to start with and then as it got later it was more intra-cloud but couldn't here any thunder.
This was the view from my kitchen window. I could see on the radar that the storm was slap bang in mid Wales moving eastwards. A good 100 mile away from me in Monmouthshire. Shows how high the storm rose. A good 2 hours of constant flashing.
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1 hour ago, Wetterfrosch said:
Sorry, should have clarified - it was the third wettest July, only surpassed by 2010 (258.5 mm) and 2020 (182.7 mm). As for the wettest month overall, December 2015 leads the pack with an incredible 444.4mm while the whole three winter months to February 2016 came out 882.8 mm and that occured during a strong El Nino, hence my previous comment.
So far today, it's been much brighter and drier up here than expected. No problem getting dogs out without getting wet. With the sun breaking through now it's only a matter of time when the increased convection will give rise to heavy downpours and TS. Being practically in the middle of the low, they also won't be moving anywhere fast I imagine. I'd better sort a few outdoor jobs out before then.
Cheers! That’s some huge totals.
we’re in the Gower this week. Today is an absolute stinker. Heavy rain pretty much constant. My poor pooch had to wait a bit to do her business
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Saturday looks a shocker too, hopefully a slow improvement after that as we head towards mid August.
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8 hours ago, Wetterfrosch said:
I am not really surprised as much of the month was rather miserable. My own rain gauge had to be relieved of 167.7 mm, the third highest total since I started recording in 2003. I still sense that we might be rewarded either a very warm September or even a golden October as things tend to even out again eventually. Not looking forward to tomorrow's downpours and trying to walk the dogs in between.
Is that the 3rd highest July or any month?
I agree with your thoughts on Autumn and balancing out. More so at the moment as we seem to be in a 2-3 month dry/wet cycle. A dry Autumn or winter would be most welcome.
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On 25/07/2023 at 07:20, Cwmbran Eira said:
“Summer month”, not summer as a whole. Will be interesting to see the stats at the end of the month.
it was worse than I thought
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10 hours ago, snefnug said:
All subjective but, No. It’s been a reasonable summer. Like summers used to be. Rain, sun, rain, sun. Been good for gardeners and farmers, maybe not so for sun seekers and HSM’s, , but thank the weather gods, no extreme heat or wildfires.
“Summer month”, not summer as a whole. Will be interesting to see the stats at the end of the month.
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Is this the worst summer month since 2012? I'm struggling to remember something more recent
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Interesting car journey from Raglan to Cwmbran at 16.30. Big storm. Car facing the wrong way on North bound A449. Major flooding with water run off from fields just outside Usk. Blue flashing lights all over the place with police and fire engines rushing past.
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Looks like the mod thread has slipped in to a cold damp coma.
How the hell am i supposed to know what the weather is going to be like in 4 weeks time now
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Well…. After 20 hours of snowfall…umm….I have hardly any snow
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i know I’ll wind a few up but….COME ON!!!! That is a shocker
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I’ll be dreaming of sun, warm breeze and long evenings tonight.
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No sign of it stopping yet
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Coming down hard now. Big flakes. Might make 1.5cm if i'm lucky
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A nice Hoffman here. Still coming steady.
1cm. Bit disappointing but looks nice
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Washout winter/spring, then BBQ Summer
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Interesting record here.
https://twitter.com/TheSnowDreamer/status/1760007597913190455
Interesting summer that followed the previous record though, some hope maybe.
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/Summer-1959.htm