ICETAB

GEFS ensemble 7 shows the type of pattern I want to see in the future. Perhaps it's the only one that has sniffed the projected warming up in the srat. I believe we will see allot more HLB come Wednesday of this week.

I think it would be good to have a long range prediction thread. That area of meteorology is being enhanced all the time and it will help others learn about the different factors at play.

Looking at the stats we should be in a -QBO shear phase this DJF nearing a -QBO peak late winter, which should mean the polar vortex is less intense this winter.

I'm starting up a new winter thread, I know the previous one, opened around May time, was closed off because it was thought to be to early. However I think now is a reasonable time to start looking ahead to the next winter season, what with the solar cycle taking a dip and ENSO predictions firming up for autumn/winter. Does anybody have any thoughts on the matter

GEFS, members 3, 6, 9 & 19 all look good to me 3 being the best. I also note that the PV wants to migrate east on a good few runs which should make it easier for heights to build around Greenland further down the line. GEFS mem 3;

Christmas is currently looking like having below average temperatures with winds coming from the north west? I find your post a little misleading...

When did it happen, today?

NAVGEM looks interesting at T114 on the 06Z

I thought he posted something about the ECM32 dayer yesterday that suggested december showed Northern blocking. Does that not mean the first month of winter will have a -NAO?

The BOM and ECM looking cold all the way through! I love the look of the last frame of the BOM. I think it could go on to show another easterly, except when it evolves this time it will drag down very cold air. Winter could be interesting. ECM brings more cold at T216 as that low out west goes under the block. 850s stay low enough for snow to lower levels at T240

Anyone know where the ECM op sat within the ensembles?

This chart looks rather interesting to me. I'm expecting the ECM to start throwing up a scandi high in the coming days.

I would be happy with the ECM if it was mid November. I can see that high pressure retrogressing to the NE further down the line.