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Jason T

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    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    well interesting day snow wise, for those that did get snow and covering well done , for those in the regional thread that did not. The door has not closed yet, in fact probably just opened more. Milder next week for a short while, then the fun starts again. Possible bigger events. Fingers crossed. stay safe all, Work early doors, got to get the car of it's grounded position early am " 6..Interesting that will be with double parked cars. Night

    • Like 1

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Folks, Cleary high frustration is hot topic in some posts !..This event was never an all action for OUR regional thread, TBH Snow fall never is guaranteed for all. Yes granted what is predicted builds the hopes, but with the current climate (Reality) and a much bigger atmosphere event that has happened prior, events take time to take place,  possibly on the horizon something a bit more rewarding to come. Stay Safe and keep the fun going. Still the best regional thread.

    Jason.

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Well if anything illustrates the futility of looking in the models beyond, say T144, it is the difference between the GFS and the GFS // 18z at just T96:

    2DD7BEEF-4090-4B73-ABD2-2B2337957887.thumb.png.21144c32fd16a43a39aefdcd31313e12.png00B83A3B-C7FB-40FD-BE3B-31E4A49D7477.thumb.png.c751eb8027ac4bba1abb5c1aa074b6fa.png

     

     

    5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Well if anything illustrates the futility of looking in the models beyond, say T144, it is the difference between the GFS and the GFS // 18z at just T96:

    2DD7BEEF-4090-4B73-ABD2-2B2337957887.thumb.png.21144c32fd16a43a39aefdcd31313e12.png00B83A3B-C7FB-40FD-BE3B-31E4A49D7477.thumb.png.c751eb8027ac4bba1abb5c1aa074b6fa.png

    We are going to have to feel our way with this one as the models are doing.  

    Perfect Response Mike, With THE SSW event and it's effects still in evolution (if that's the right terminology) changes have already happened at the point of the daily run releases...what we see with with our eyes and read...much more is changing above our heads and at a greater rate...I think even T120 is to far to call..but that's my opinion. Only an opinion folks.

    • Thanks 1

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Alpine glow said:

    Thank you Jason.

    Yes, i've followed the models thread for a couple of years so my jets are cooled!  I was there for That ECM   Massive rollercoaster, but that's exciting, eh!  I can normally sift the wheat from the chaf from the Model thread but couldn't catch up tonight for some reason.

    Love your reply Alpine....Brilliant. As for the rollercoaster ride, Can you imagine if Alton towers had the BIG 3 ride, (behave some with that phrase) Into the darkness we all go with not a clue what's going to happen next...that is about the truth of our reality right now lol. @chionomaniacthanks for like...Much appreciated..

    • Like 3

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    45 minutes ago, Alpine glow said:

    I'm a bit confused in the mod thread...  i'm having a quick catch up and am i right in thinking that the models are still trying to deal with the effects of the SSW and it's all still in the balance?

    Hi Alpine, i was going to try and explain, but there is no real easy way...The only answer I can give is that during an SSW and even after the event, Data is in turmoil as the models have to try and work out what's actually going to happen...Remember (Try)..so any output will show an answer but this could be way off to actual. For us all excluding some knowledgeable's and certainly Chio, No offence Ed, just trying to help some including myself. This link will really help and in laymen term explain, ie a much easier way to understand the terminology of an SSW event and it's effects.

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Sudden stratospheric warming responsible for UK's icy blast - BBC Weather

    WWW.BBC.CO.UK
    The icy blast moving across the UK has its roots high up in the stratosphere days ago. As BBC Weather's John Hammond writes, it makes longer-term forecasting unusually tricky.

     

    • Like 3

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Frostbite1980 said:

    Yep I think so, it seems you can't have a personal opinion in there if it doesn't suggest -20 temps and raging blizzards 

    Clearly emotions are running on overdrive, I can only guess with the utter pandemic issue, restrictions and so on some are just looking and not reading between the lines in daily runs for something that resembles day after tomorrow scenario, then the opinions start and it enters off the scale mode. We all want to get involved with the lovely recipe a Winter in the UK can bring, but this is the UK even more so the S/E its never easy and can be an utter roller coaster of a ride to see the lovely white stuff all around, We are all guilty of the classic (Lamp Post Watch) and always will be. I think as the Tornado Wizard stated just got to wait for awhile longer and the Lack of The Murr 20 a day posts suggest just wait awhile longer....After all I believe from what I have read the second SSW warming has only just taken place...so daily out put is very likely to still be unresolved with any certainties of where we will be. I think Ed will update us regarding that. After all thinking about it, What can we all do right now with 14 inches of Snow and -10.....Stay In ???  

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    This morning John posted that he saw no deep cold for at least the next two week and possibly beyond. The updated 6-14 has shot a hole (his words not mine) in that prediction

    Exactly, The initial start of the SSW and the break off from the polar v split can take at least 2 weeks for us to begin to see any effects, After all it is only the 6th of January and two weeks will take us pretty much to the final third. Admittedly some state SSW to early, but is it ??? We all pretty much know when this event happens model T runs can be pretty much all over the place trying to figure out what actually will be the case, If I am correct when an SSW event begins data for some reason comes through from the Trop. Plenty of more Winter to  go and based on current sudden event very interesting model viewing to come, Yes some shock horrors short term, but then again some eye candy as well, I believe further down the line, hopefully sooner.

    • Like 4
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