egret

And many were looking at global patterns and saying, colder towards the end of winter - We are still in mid winter ( just it doesn't feel like it today!) I continue to watch this particular period of models with great interest as I expect a rapid change during the first week of February and then what might be seen as an unexpectedly swift return to Northerly regime. It is remarkable how often there will be a couple of hints a week to ten days ahead, a swing away for a week or more and then a suddenly reappearance at 48 hours or less. Put another way projections at 240 hours seem to to keep edging away in time with each run and then suddenly rush forward with a flourish like important bits of jig saw falling into place and allowing the picture to be suddenly completed.

another very heavy spell of rain just started, this time with hail mixed in and a single clap of thunder. The local rivers are now just overtopping their banks so the aquifers must be well topped up.

We had a sleety squall shower in Dorchester at 12:30

Yes you know its getting bad when we have to take sanctuary in here for a bit of peace and quiet!

I suspect there will be some interesting discussions and negotiations going on under the Transfer Of Undertakings (TUPE) directives - the new operator effectively have to take on staff who worked primarily on the BBC contract and I imagine there will be considerable pension issues to cover also. I can imagine accountants and lawyers working late nights on this contract change.

.....HIC? too long in the Iso Bar?

Yes, our photovoltaic panels last month only generated a tenth of their normal summer electricity output and about half of their normal winter output. Fortunately this is offset by a welcome lack of gas consumption on our heating!

Yes a real joy walking the dogs this afternoon in warm sun and dappled woodland light onto fresh fallen leaves. Whatever the winter we will not feel cheated out of an autumn.

Equally foul here - I'm sure we all have it! Thursday brought the first real flooding of our back lanes for quite a time - the best indicator that the topsoil is now saturated meaning excess run-off from the fields when it rains heavily. The chalk fed rivers are also beginning to rise after very low levels in October (which is a relief to see for nature lovers).

Which is why the express keeps getting it wrong. Bring back an important piece of legislation! LoL Regarding this winter I have no extreme expectations but watch 2016 onwards with interest as we head on towards solar minimum from (a point where a cyclical high has been lower lower than expected) 2018 remains the one to watch for me.

this site gives a good visual animation of how the low has developed over Biscay / France today and a feel for how the circulation might evolve from here http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

just had a couple of rumbles to our sw and started raining here

Yes, needle stuff as it is an incredibly narrow line of showers over the channel - we might just catch this one - about time really as Purbecks usually nab them from us! I wonder if Meto may have over egged this one as I normally expect to see things brewing up over Brittany long before it hits our shores. It we do get a rash of activity it will be a very interesting scenario and one to keep a note of. As I write we have just had a couple of rumbles to our southwest and first spots of rain.

Agreed, but its still bizarre - to think we might have been hoping for those charts in January!

Yes, and lets remind ourselves what was being shown / said a week or two back when there seemed little hope of cold before the month's end. With sunspot activity at (then) current levels the outlook back in early autumn was not one favouing prolonged and severe cold, but did suggest a more 'normal' winter with cold spells and possibly snow. The current models and associated charts continue to suggest this to me, and yes we can all continue to hope that one throw of the dice throws up a full house that we can all remember fondly. The shift of PV towards Siberia looks far more familiar to me, what we now need is a stronger low down over the Med and better heights in Greenland or Skandi. This set up is not there just now but I would still not bet against it within the next four weeks. As others far more knowledgeable have said in the past - get the bits in the right place and watch the picture develop. And that is the process I love to watch post-7292-0-45015100-1421484484.jpg (drawn from Strat Thread)

Simply stunning chart, I don't recall one quite that impressive - well spotted. ( If only.......!) Time to check where PV is really heading

Happy New Year one and all

So Andre J is still going for a non technical warming even if ECM has backed away from a technical one. Or am I simply getting confused? LoL

Cold lingered here a bit longer than I had expected - the ground was still hard frozen and frost covered in shaded areas yesterday afternoon. Now a balmy 4.5C and quite pleasant when the sun comes out.

Yes I suppose we do tend to hang on, and hence examine every word - mainly because the forecasts do not give sufficient detail or explanation to enable us to understand (from a simple reading of their words) just what they believe is going on and the probability of certain outcomes. Some have criticised the wordiness of Tamara's posts in MoD, but I really appreciate the explanation she gives to support her summaries. I am left with a clearer understanding of 'the why behind the what'. For this reason I read other posts (such as those of JH and Feb Blizzard) which help point me to trends or details which I would certainly have overlooked otherwise. I suppose in this regard we might well be guilty of misusing the Met Office's work - but for one very good reason, we wish to develop our understanding as a community of enthusiasts.

Wonderful crisp and clear evening here and feeling very festive. Just to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and hoping Santa has enough from PV to bring you all a snowy New Year! I am heading up to Suffolk tomorrow, so feel able to post in here tonight!

Just walked back from the crib service, little Jesus is neatly tucked up in bed so we can relax with a glass or two. Lovely clear eveing so Santa should get a clear run in and easy landing Just time to wish everyone one here a very Merry Christmas and a huge Channel Low and Severn Streamer in the New Year!

I remain anxious with the continuous stream of deep lows spawning off E Coast of America and tracking over Greenland. While that is the picture I cannot see sustained cold over W Europe. That said the low we are currently looking at for the UK could do useful things if it can help to establish low pressure over the Med - lets hope it manages to track that far south rather than stick over N Europe. Watching the jetstream with interest to see what is likely.

Yes, I had a second take when I saw a 'snow and ice' severe weather alert email for the SW from the Met Office. Also one for the SE Detail shows these are only for higher ground in Gloucestershire and Oxfordshire but still impressively far South. Fingers crossed for those in with a chance!

Mapantz: But not in the North Sea / english Channel Dave, best advice is a nice fried breakfast and then go up on deck wrapped up warm so you get fresh air and really enjoy looking forwards at the waves. The motion is detected by your inner ear but if your eyes can see whats happening your body is less confused. try and treat the motion as fun and you've won half the battle! The other sure fire way to prevent sea sickness is to sit under a tree, works every time.