Cheshire Freeze

Your poor dog will be checking the outputs more than the snow starved members on here.

Yeah but prior to that winds are straight NW’ly

The winds were far more westerly in those instances (like the 120hrs chart) Dec 09-

Cheshire gap activity here I’d have thought @Joe Snow

My tolerance for winter is decreasing year on year as I get older. Utterly depressing being under cloud and a cold wind day after day. If it’s not going to snow I’m not really interested. Spring is the best season for me these days.

Remember that one. Even here the snow was fairly deep.

Yeah I think we’ll almost certainly see a resurgence of blocking into Feb. Certainly looking more likely than not at present.

Yeah I’m not throwing in the towel on next week yet, personally. Not whilst we have a fairly decent UKMO. A good EC det run would be greatly appreciated though! Hopefully some part of the UK can see a snowfall from this, whether it be N or S.

Here’s the GEFS mean pressure anomaly- it’s a continuation of the prevailing winter pattern to date with the jet slamming into the UK Possibly worse than that as LP slows down around the UK Let’s hope for changes to that prognosis! Modelling possibly overreacting to the signal.

People were on about red warnings yesterday. The only red thing we’re likely to see is the red mist of another winter weather fail.

Agreed. All moot really but it’d have been better to get the big snow event, even if there was to be a rapid thaw after. At least we’d see the snow.

Some higher cumulative rainfall totals starting to be shown on the GFS now

Sandbag and dinghy manufacturers certainly will

It’s as simple to me as the displacement of the SPV to the Eurasian side of the hemisphere has not been strong or long lasting enough. Displacing back a touch too early to allow blocking in the North Atlantic sector to properly take hold and deliver. A split would have ensured more opportunity for blocking to manifest and result in a protracted spell of winter weather. The trop and strat look well coupled to my eyes in places, especially N Atlantic sector and towards the Aleutian side.

This all goes back to the failed split SSW IMO. Which I mentioned at the time as being significant. As the SPV pushes across the N Atlantic it looks to me like we’re seeing rapid downwelling of the upper zonals…hence why the blocking seems to just evaporate. Seems the most plausible explanation to me as there seems to be forcing rapidly overwhelming trop based drivers. Had we got the proper split I think we’d be staring down the barrel of a memorable and prolonged spell now. I wonder if analysis by the twitter strat gurus will conclude the same thing post season.

The culprit? Strat PV pushed back over Canadian side? This is at just 60 hrs- On the plus side we might see the E winds blow in Feb?

IMO Dan it’s the strat that is causing these swings in the polar field…and I’ve been thinking this for a while.

I’m not sure it is getting it wrong…the GFS is good at picking up these small shortwaves. I guess we’ll see.

Next week looks a fuss about nothing for most on the 0z GFS. A brief initial cold plunge then the Atlantic LP failing to engage the cold troughing to the N and NE. UKMO looks decent though.

This is my concern. Some places could be under water by the end of next week.

Pronounced rain shadow 18z GFS…Gtr Manchester right down into Cheshire. Seen it before with that scenario…few hrs of drizzly snow that doesn’t stick.

We don’t indeed…but that wasn’t my point. We can do without another wet, windy zonal spell.

Yeah no idea where those wedges of heights have disappeared to. Last thing we need is snowmelt and more flooding.

Wales and Midlands get the pasting from the snow on this run…would even catch a few inches here

I’d put Midlands favourite at the moment, purely because it’s far enough N to likely be in the cold air and far enough S to ensure precipitation from the LP.