Joe Bloggs

Yes absolutely, fingers crossed for you!

It would. Selfishly I hope that low stays way to the south, seems to coincide with better chances for us. Like I said though I would be extremely surprised if the entire region stayed completely snow free next week.

I agree, it’s absolutely brilliant. So friendly and lots of knowledge.

Also - I know these apps are absolute bobbins most of the time - but this is always a positive sign if the computers are displaying the symbols already.

Looking at the output , objectively and realistically - I’d be gobsmacked if the entire region missed out on any lying snow next week. Virtually all of the models show a NW’ly flow to some degree, just with minor variations. I suspect Cheshire will be the sweet spot, but many of the models have the wind backing WNW’ly so perhaps larger parts of the region could be in play. I note what @Kasim Awan mentioned about the trough - hopefully if this kills off the shower activity it could be benefit us with more organised snow from the north, this has often happened in cold spells of the past, they don’t always die a death when they move south, sometimes the opposite happens. One little hazard - GFS has us in a little milder sector on Tuesday night. It doesn’t coincide with any precip on this run but worth watching. @Kasim Awan and @Chris.R definitely keep us updated with short term prospects next week!

Some of the 18z GEFS are looooovely

We’re getting short term upgrades. Only yesterday , Monday was looking less cold with warmer uppers.

It’s a lovely run as it’s a westerly but it’s quite slack which is a positive, heights are low promoting instability and the vector alters between NW’ly and WNW’ly

Lovely 18z ICON for NW England. Very cold and near perfect westerly wind.

I remember the evening of 4th January 2010 . The EURO4 model on weatheronline showed us getting absolutely pummelled and it wasn’t wrong. I think it was called the NAE at the time. Shame it’s no longer in use as I really rated it for snow cover.

fascinating UKV. Its almost as if they have manually removed any lying snow from the Greater Manchester metropolitan area. Not a shadow setup so I can only assume its picking up on UHI.

Hey Kasim In my experience slack flows are actually better at generating convective showers and streamer features? It’s an ingredient I look for when trying to judge if we’ll get westerly snow showers here. If there’s a strong wind it’s often a fail. Anyway - the uncertainty remains this morning. Hopefully ECM has this pattern nailed.

ECM good for our patch this morning. Nice westerly flow.

18z GEFS look quite good though . Better Greenland heights on a very quick glance

We’re looking at quite small windows. Annoyingly, rather than a clean cold northerly from Sunday onwards we get some slightly milder air on Monday which may even bring some rain showers. Looks like some form of feature will move down from the north Tuesday night - maybe bringing some snow on the back edge (major uncertainty here) behind this is some very cold air and we could get some NW’ly snow showers . How long that lasts depends on how quickly the great Midlands snow storm moves in. Worst case scenario is for the low to be far enough north that it cuts off convection for our region but not far enough to give snow. Basically what the 18z GFS shows! I think we are far more likely to do well via fronts and little features from the north and north west personally, which won’t be well modelled until very short notice. Fingers crossed for upgrades tomorrow.

The Greenland heights appear to be eroding too quickly really. Some of the output was really good earlier today, hopefully we will see some upgrades again.

I know all that haha! I’d rather it all stays south and we get cold NW’lies

I’m referring to a system moving through the Midlands btw with us on the snowy northern flank. never happens.

I would be gobsmacked if this setup delivered for the NW. It just never does.

12z ICON for Wednesday next week

Very true. Fingers crossed eh. Looking good , especially if something like 06z GFS verifies (around day 7).

Lots of charts are showing this at day 5 after the initial northerly. (ICON 06z) Weak NW’ly flow, with an interesting shortwave to the NW. Relaxation of cold uppers and some higher thicknesses no doubt. Will it be cold enough for snow? Looks marginal to me. one for @Kasim Awan and @Chris.R maybe.

06z GFS - THIS is what we want in the NW. A genuine Arctic feed with sub -10C uppers off the Irish Sea. A stunning chart. Forget lows pushing into the cold pool - that’s fraught with risk and so many of us would miss out. This is far better.

ICON is wonderful for NW England this morning - this is what I hope will verify.

Yes the flow does back to the NW too at times so no doubt there could be some surprises off the Irish Sea - however I am spotting some mild sectors coming into play - example from MetO run below