gareth moo

The ladies GS World Cup race from Courcheval 1850 on Monday made the resort look like it does in May! Looking at the models, I can't see anything fresh within the next 6-7 days either with high pressure not just lingering but maybe building again. It's going to be a tough couple of busy weeks for the big resorts in Savoie and Isere.

Good evening folks, I'm guessing that most of you good people in here have viewed the pretty maps produced by the snow-forecast.com site: I'm interested to know which model / data sets these represent? I'm thinking GFS but not sure. Anyone ?

Dire weather today folks. Haven't had a storm like that here for at least 30 hours!

Happy New Year Welsh winter chasers! Arpege French model has heavy snow for large areas of Wales (no it apparently won't snow in Cardiff Jay!) for rush hour Monday morning. Not too much support elsewhere as Ian F mentioned in the MOD thread. Nevertheless a better start than most of the previous few winters. It's still officially Autumn after all. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=frfr&MODELL=arpege&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=51&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Not difficult I know, but the next couple of weeks is going to be the best of winter to date. The models are largely in agreement that it will be sustained. How long? How cold? Dry or PPN? all yet to be revealed, but could be an interesting couple of weeks.

Monday AM front does what we want it to but still too mild for any sniff of snow for majority of us good folks on here. No evidence at all, but I have a feeling that there's more to come this winter despite the demise of El Nino.

J10, what do you make of the snow potential with these E / SE bound fronts this week?

Agree. +3 Dewpoints and -2 uppers ain't going to drop anything but rain on Monday morning. That front has to be pushed much further West to give us a battleground. With FI at +36 hrs according to some pros, there's always still a chance although models are starting to converge.

Monday's battleground looks knife edge according to GFS at +96hrs. The front sneaks under the HP and pushes into the cold air and currently brings cold rain to most of Wales but then starts to stall and turn to snow as it moves East. Dew points and upper air temps are really marginal for most of Wales here and slight adjustments could make all the difference. We would need the advance of the front to be a little slower here. Here's hoping the GFS has overplayed this one a little (as is often the case with Eastbound PPN) and we get the stall right on top of us. Plenty of time for this to go in the right or wrong direction yet. Will be interesting what Euro4 tells us when it gets into range on Saturday.

Yes Keith, absolutely amazing chopping and changing with the synoptic output. I seem to remember some of our best winter events of recent years with the continual regress of the Atlantic pattern. Maybe a good sign that this is happening constantly at then moment?

I won't pretend to know what I'm on about particularly as the pros are struggling with this set up. However, this is my take on things: For the next couple of days it looks like most of us will be on the wrong side of marginal although elevation should be key. Anyway, despite the big computers about to blow all their fuses and melt their hard drives with all of this transient input, the most reliable model of late (ECM) has just about completed a u- turn and locked down the cold for much longer into next week. More interestingly, It shows a cold flow off the continent at times and on a collision path with some PPN from our NW. It's a big 'if' but IF it materialises, Wales could be in a great position for a decent event come Sunday / Monday maybe? This output will of course change however, but this evening is a step in the right direction for a snowy outlook. Andy battleground? Jackone streamer? Time will tell but if it still looks like this on Saturday we could be 'game on.' What's your take on this one folks?

A few ingredients will be present on Wednesday into Thursday (-5/6 uppers and low dew points across Wales) although the PPN from the West is likely to raise these dewpoints and uppers as it arrives. How much so remains to be seen although we won't be under any entrenched cold at this point. Getting in range for the Euro4 now and look at the difference between the dewpoints in Ireland under that PPN compared to inland Wales for example. Looks the wrong side of marginal as always although elevated positions should see some snow. The lack of any deep or recent ground frosts also goes against us here. The next couple of runs should give us more precision in locating snow potential. Hopefully I'm wrong. I'm looking forward to HP and some sunny skies nonetheless.

All kisses and compliments this morning in the model thread as there is as chance of an Easterly in about 10 days time!!!! Back to reality: Should be a cold week with the best chance of snow arriving on Thursday from the South. South Wales may well be the wrong side of marginal with the inland North looking to have the better chances. However, the position, track and time of arrival of the LP will be crucial as always. Probably won't be any clarity on this event until T-48 at least but if we're going to follow the output, we'll need the LP to track further South, centred over Northern France and arriving after dark.

Wrists being slit in the Model thread this morning. Big downgrades overnight and all teddies getting thrown out of their cots. More entertaining than the model watching itself. Certainly going to be colder next week from about Tuesday. How long for and what type of precip still up for grabs by the looks of it although nothing guaranteed for sure.

Hello everyone. The emotional rollercoaster that is our little principality's annual search for some snow is ready to board. Certainly looks much colder next week. Fasten your seatbelts and get ready for the usual spells of euphoria and depression as the big computers throw out their data.

Properly grim out there today ladies and gents. Persistent cold rain for 8 hours and 4/5 C. I know that we don't think of this as extreme weather, but this is more dangerous if not disruptive for people venturing outside. Hope our mountain rescue teams aren't too busy up there.

Best weather day of the year to date for me. Sun clearly strengthening.

GFS with absolutely no interest in a return to the Atlantic. Northerly turns to North Easterly turns to Easterly. Potentially a couple of cracking weeks of cold, crisp weather. Never the greatest snow maker for our region but always potential for something developing and moving through the English channel. The lack of cloud will make our already lengthening days seem longer too. Things will change but looking forwards to it.

Brilliant - I also witnessed "modern disruptive snow" this afternoon when some of the students in my class looked briefly out of the window and exclaimed "look sir it's nearly snowing" before turning their attention back to their studies.

Bedwas and Machen mountain summits turning white very slowly.

I agree Sam. Most of the key ingredients are going to be in place (Thickness, DPs, Uppers). If a little instability and PPN are added to the mix, some of us are going to see snow even to low levels. The largely unforecasted streamer of Dec 2010 deposited around 6-8 inches over 18 hours upon this area, despite the barrier of the Cambrians and Beacons. Not expecting anything like that, but it should make for a good few days following the radar.

Now: 7/10 for settling snow 2/10 for disruptive snow (Caerphilly) It will change!

Very tasty looking chart. Streamer akin to Dec 2010 would suffice.

Anything exciting out there in FI folks? (Mind you, based on this week, FI is somewhere near to 3hrs!)

3c and moderate rain. Of all the conditions that we've seen this month to date (and there have been plenty), this ranks pretty low on the scale. It's even raining at 365m at the top of Mynydd Machen. Went up on the bike to check the effect of altitude. In conclusion: none; and a really bad hypothesis / plan generally.