gareth moo
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Posts posted by gareth moo
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The front reaches Pembrokeshire within the next hour or so. It will be interesting to see how it presents and develops down West. Anyone have live dewpoints for Pembroke / Milford area?
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Front certainly further North than all of the high res models predicted for this time.
Although the cold dense air may destroy it, worth a radar watch for sure!
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I agree with what has been said already today by Keith and others in that the middle ground solution between the current forecast models could drop some serious snow on us here in Wales.
If the cold air can squash that current tropical depression and send it along the English Channel (maybe next Wednesday-ish) keeping us North of centre and stalling, we're in for some serious action.
Loads of variables still need to fall in place, but the potential makes sure that we'll all be invested on here !!
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If ECM is correct at +120hrs - it won't be snow after Saturday lunchtime. However, time for changes. Fine margins again.
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2 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:
So these flurries are coming from the west not the east?
East. Fax chart is for the end of the week.
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The plucky front is giving it his all to give us some snow - c'mon buddy 150 more miles into that Beasterly!
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Fax chart for Thursday - Disturbed enough to create the occlusion ejected and detached from the main Low.
Looks to have our name on it - just hope it makes it the final 300 miles from here!
Backed by GFS, ICON, ECM for Thursday overnight and well into Friday. Fingers crossed.
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15 minutes ago, keithlucky said:
Don't worry about marginality dense cold air embedded.
Shortwaves being ejected from main low Keith? Seems to be far more disruption to those Atlantic systems showing this morning.
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GFS 6z has just thrown a 24 hour staller over Wales for Thursday. Marginal upper air temps but could deliver!
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3 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:
Or 3 the high drifts over us and we are stuck in no mans land
Yep - that's the stalemate with heights from the South getting dragged up by that resilient LP.
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At moment the models are showing two heavyweights ready to go at it.
On the one side is the deep Atlantic low versus the Beast on the other. It's like Rocky 4 - Eastern seaboard New Yorker against the mighty Siberian.
At the moment they are locked in a slugfest first round and neither gives an inch. The battleground remains in the North Atlantic.
If either side weakens - we in Wales will probably win:
- If the Beast weakens, the low can gain some mileage Eastwards. We would hope that the Beast puts up a decent fight though and stalls the low right here
- If the low weakens, it will disrupt and get squeezed Southeastwards. That's our slider.
Scenario 1 looks unlikely, so it's 2 we're probably looking for. Problem is that the longer the fight goes on, the more likely the stalemate, as the low gets all his mates from the South to keep the opponents apart and the fight gets stopped with a points draw. I still reckon there's a chance of scenario 2 but we will probably need to see it within the next 48 hours on ECM at the very least. (Can't believe i want Rocky to concede mind!)
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Hello?! - Weak occlusion dropping South Saturday night / Sunday early hours. Snow-maker all the way if it can stay in any shape.
Arome (very highly rated) has it as all snow from Cardiff Eastwards. Maybe 3-4 hours of snow in this feature. Further East the better though. Next frame would be be interesting?
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1 minute ago, andymusic said:
lots of factors play a part in that one - not even the pro-forecasters get that one right on the day of the front coming in - so i'm not even gonna go there - we'll just have to watch things unfold
Yep. LP will adjust, usually by 100s of miles. Won't go North. Can't see it pushing through against the serious cold.
Since the internet age and being able to properly track this stuff every 6 hours (rather than on the Countryfile forecast each Sunday) we've seen prob 90% of these slide (eventually.)
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1982 - wow, great memories. I was 10.
Three things anyone below maybe 35/40 won't understand:
1. Proper power cuts. Like no heating or lights for 72 hours. Candles and a Calor gas heater to huddle around.
2. Snow so deep that we made a full-on bobsleigh track in a field. Banked corners the lot.
3. No school for 4 weeks because of frozen pipes in the outside toilets.
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3 minutes ago, keithlucky said:
Honestly the wrap around front its track is a nightmare as you said radar will be on for2 days in a brisk bloody cold wind .Good entertainment though.
Once that occlusion exits into Holland the Easterly will be howling through - wind chill estimate will be interesting?!
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The Fax charts are coming into range for the cold spell now. There's an occluded front unwrapping itself across the whole South of the UK Saturday and Sunday. I reckon loads of little features will pop up in the next few days too. Lows scattering the Atlantic unable to make headway. Little ridge over Portugal could push them back Northwards like storm Emma or throw one along the channel with us on the cold and snow-laden North side. Tidy range of opportunities coming folks.
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@andymusic You still have those plans for the Beacons ski resort that you drafted in 2010?
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Great to see some infiltration Cymraeg into the loony thread earlier ladies and gents. The bait was thrown by a few but it was Jay that got the bite !
Some proper charts appearing for us fair play.
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Hello all - late to the party this year.
Fair play, it's been an intriguing and sometimes agonising (as always) chase this winter but not without reward over the last fortnight. Amazing that the Met didn't look at the 90% of output predicting Sunday's snow. I can't help thinking that if it was England impacted, that it would have been flagged.
The nutters in the mad thread seem to have gone into hyper mode this evening about a freezing Easterly a week away. Usually, i would await predicting the wrist slitting when it all went Pete Tong in the space of 12 hours. However, i get the feeling that with all the models starting to align, that we are about to feel something remarkably cold.
Easterlies are often dry and frigid for us, so we need to keep a sharp eye on sliding and stalling battleground fronts from the West. That's our golden ticket and decent chances i would say. Whatever the outcome, this looks like a great week for model watching.
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8 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:
Fantastic! Great skiing/boarding in La Plagne and well worth taking the cross-valley cable car over to Les Arcs for epic skiing over there too. Both LP and LA have great snow conditions at the moment and look set for an amazing start to their seasons this weekend. Current depths are:
LP Upper 100cms Lower 30cms
LA Upper 150cms Lower 80cms.Here's the view from Roche de Mio, La Plagne, yesterday:
And the forecast for the rest of this week is for another 80cms of snowfall in LP.
Snow accum from today to midnight Sat 14th:
It would take exceptional weather conditions to mess things up for the Christmas week. A high pressure is not necessarily bad news as the temps are likely to be sub-zero overnight and on north facing slopes no real damage will be done by day. Hope you do it and have a great week.
Looks fantastic on all of the webcams at present. They are selling sunrise passes for Saturday morning that allow a limited number of customers to access the first lift-served runs of the season. That would be epic!
Many thanks again Malcolm.
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13 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
Sorry for the late reply but I've been away on hols. You may wish to visit the Meteo France (French Met Office) website. They use their own models (such as Arpege) and not the GFS so are normally more accurate. Follow this link and enter the resort (station) you'd like the forecast for. When the daily forecasts display (they go out 2 weeks) just click on any day to get further detail including snow line and freezing level ISO.
Many thanks Malcolm.
Hoping for an early season powder skiing treat over the Christmas week at La Plagne. Fingers crossed that the ill-placed predicted HP South East of the Alps doesn't verify next week!
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Evening all. Any thoughts on the week ahead in the French Alps? The Snow Forecast site seems to be flip flopping hugely between freezing levels for next Friday 13th and what could be a really significant early season event. Am I right in thinking that this website uses the GFS model for its data? What's the likely snowline verification folks?
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7 minutes ago, RhysWales said:
How's it looking in Machen Gareth? Hoping for another day at the TA myself...
Awful until 8pm. Since then chucking it down and settling on all surfaces. Early 6 nations start tomorrow afternoon then. Tredegar Arms for you / Machen RFC for me!!
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The front has totally stalled but not degrading quickly either. Should be hours of moderate snow left in this for many.
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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Wales / Cymru weather discussion
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Keep us posted Gez! Cheers.