Looking at the ensembles this morning a build of high pressure settling things down for the S/SE looks to be low probability with unsettled weather for most dominant. Although as typical in a zonal setup, the most unsettled weather to the NW/W and driest to the SE. NAEFS, GEM day 12. ECM day 10 means
ECM day 10, NAEFS day 12 pressure anomalies
The vortex is getting organised at day 10 although not raging, similar picture on the NAEFS at the end
ECM making most out of the block to the NE although it is fading with time, so I imagine if the ECM went further the block would be further weakened.
Not a great outlook for cold for the forseeable. For winter cold, we may have to actually wait until winter starts in 2 weeks time before the possibility opens up. Better this weather now than in a few weeks/months. No big deal in the big picture..