PolarWarsaw

Well, it's clear things are fickle at the moment. It's also clear that things are changing for the worse this morning, once that happens it basically never reverses. We saw this around 10 days ago when the GEFS/EPC showed a clear rise towards mid month and even though it was against practically every strat forecast, it's not been cold enough for snow to fall for around a week now. If this morning charts are correct then we are heading towards flooding taking the headlines, nothing SSW or Cold related. With that being said, there's a few opportunities for transient slushy snowfall, particularly the further north and over higher ground. I think it's suffice to say at this point, that the initial chances of a traditional 'BFTE' response from the SSW, is all but gone. We are in the midst of another push back to beyond Day 10 for the coldest air and this is a pattern that has now repeated 6-8 times already this winter. It is beginning to feel like we may never get there in terms of a proper cold spell. Let's hope there's plenty of snow around. Interested to see where the 12z goes and how long/any delay at all we are looking for.

The flip side of the above is that 850's aren't the only significant factor in snowfall for the UK? (Has this been mentioned before on this forum? ) The previous cold spell had air sourced from milder locations in Europe and thus, all supporting factors for lowland snowfall weren't in the right place. What is shown on tonight's ECM is sourced from much colder air. DP's and 850's hand in hand would be much more likely to provide, even for those in the South. Battleground and 'North of the M4' will be used a lot in the next week or 2 IMO.

Yes, but anyone mentioning this used the terms 'could' or 'might be' so anyone that loosely took that as the next ice age was a guarantee, are taking people's words and using them as a formality. IMO not a clever way to use an internet forum. With the greatest of respect, you have been a fantastic addition to this thread but I do sense a lot of IMBY to your posts. This is the UK not the Netherlands. I'm firmly with you in terms of the fact that it's best not to over-analyse every different model suite. However, the old 'get the cold in and goods follow' - it's not as simple as that. We got the cold in for pretty much the last two weeks and snow was isolated and fell in lucky/favoured/expected areas. I admire your optimism though with your location. Aside from that, I'm a firm believer that the weather works in patterns. We seem to have been looking at a Greenland ridge at Day 10 for about 6-8 weeks now, what has happened every single time is that as it's worked closer to T0 - the ridge doesn't quite make it and another feature in our locale works against us. That is what I see happening again here. To me, I make a true BFTE or 'historic' cold spell as marginally odds against at the moment, probably just ahead of a full zonal reset in terms of percentages. Sounds really negative doesn't it? It's not intended to be that way this time. I suspect we will continue to see just enough ridging in the Atlantic to keep us 'cooler' than normal. A rinse and repeat of the pattern we have just seen. The only difference this time is that the air to the east is less marginal, favourably sourced and more entrenched over Europe than we saw recently. I mentioned above that I am a believer in 'patterns'. With that in mind I can see the next 2-4 weeks switching between slightly milder interludes where the Atlantic may try and encroach or a relaxation of the ridge into Greenland, either side of that I can see spells of a few days bringing country wide uppers supportive of snow, frosts and probably a fair smattering of showers. With the added interest being southerly tracking lows and any milder interlude probably increasing the risk of frontal snow. In other words, no BFTE and no -14 screaming easterly's but a repeating pattern of cold and snow chances, cold enough for harsh frosts and debatable whether any laying snow or not would melt during the 'less cold' periods. Certainly not a classic, but I do feel virtually everywhere is in with a shout of frontal snow in the next few weeks and it probably wouldn't go anywhere in a hurry. It's clear that a lot of people have somehow invested in this SSW and have banked on it delivering a BFTE, historic cold spell - which is still possible. IMO we are slowly moving away from that. But I can see quite a cold/snowy pattern setting up, without an amazing set up and one that could last a good few weeks in terms of opportunities. I'd actually settle for either/both, quite happily and so should everyone else.

The 12z ECM is perfectly within the envelope of what's available to us in the next couple of weeks and should not be dismissed just because it doesn't go on to show a more favourable outcome after an SSW. In the near term, perhaps some of those that haven't been lucky enough to see falling snow yet this winter, should take notice and focus attention on this coming week as there does appear to be a chance of some sort of transient snow event midweek/later next weekend. In terms of where we go towards the end of January, absolutely every single weather type is on the table. Keep your expectations in check.

The ECM 12z is a perfectly plausible out come, whether it looks likely or unlikely - have people not started to understand yet that an SSW does not guarantee cold and snow of any nature (let alone significant) in anyway shape or form? Yes it would be disappointing, but the mass hysteria because one ECM doesn't show a meltdown is to nearly an embarrassing level. Is this what the forum is going to be like to read whenever an SSW is forecast? An SSW increases the chances only of cold and snow. There's a pandemic killing tens of thousands of people going on in the world. We all want, long, severe, snowy weather but some of you need to step away from a computer and see what's really important. A serious 'lowering' of hopes and expectations with regards to any weather we get at the surface in the next few weeks is needed on this forum tonight, more for the mental state of members. We could be in a bartlett, stuck with a huge vortex over Greenland, be under a stagnant high pressure, in a battleground situation, in a modest cold spell or something more memorable in the next few weeks. I know where I'd hedge my percentages of what is more likely, but absolutely nobody and especially any computer model can tell you with anymore efficiency or certainty. For those reasons every single member using this thread should be aware that all of the above outcomes are completely on the table.

Seems to be quite a frustrating spell this. Just as we get a solid day or so of modelling and the pendulum mentally swings towards cold, we undo it the next day with things looking 'flatter' and generally showing things further east. Obviously more so now than at any other point this winter is it worth watching Day 10 trends, but it has been seemingly endless in this last 7-8 weeks looking at Day 10 for nothing to actually really produce at the surface. It's honestly been such a shame to see no widespread snow event, even if it was marginal and gone within a day or 2, there would be a lot more patience on display if most of the country had seen some sort of reasonable 'slider' event, which we can achieve in even the mildest winters. There's plenty to be positive about, but this honestly has to be the most frustrating winter in decades - the cold just never arrives sufficiently or in any sort of set pattern to suggest it would hang around for more than a couple of days. Let's hope tonight's Day 10 charts are actually on to something and not just another trip up to 'dangly carrot' land. If we get to this time next month (just 4 weeks away in reality) without having had or being in/on the cusp of at least a reasonably cold/widespread snowy event then I fear for the sanity of some. This is the most important 2 weeks or so of modelling that there will be in the entire 3/4 months of this winter.

Shouldn't come as any sort of surprise really. Whether it's the Azores, the vortex over Greenland or something as small as a shortwave, the UK is practically never free of one of them. This is the main problem with being the closest point to the Atlantic and the furthest away from the coldest source. Unfortunately, the UK is rubbish for snow and will always get the worst of any situation.

Driven home from Stafford where it had started snowing, slowly turned to drizzle and rain the closer to home. It's 100M there and 70M here which just goes to show how marginal things are. The roads are slowly turning wet and considering how little intensity is expected on any of this PPN, that probably spells the end of any chances to see settling snow. Obviously, this is perhaps a fickle moan as last week we had probably 5-6CM split over 3 marginal events and falling snow on 4 days out of 7 but it's early January in the middle of this set up, how on earth are we even discussing things being so borderline for portions of the Midlands? Not sure if it's perhaps how the MOD thread has gone this year, but in even the last decade or so it seems the 'methods' of getting snow to this region are getting harder and harder. For years we relied on the Cheshire gap effect, but honestly I can't remember the last time that genuinely provided region wide? It's near impossible to get the correct set up to see accumulating snowfall from that these days. The only set ups that seem to be reliable at the moment are battleground snow events and true easterly set ups. The problem with easterly scenarios is that they have to be notable enough to deliver showers with enough strength to reach the western part of the midlands and battleground situations have to go just our way to bring a proper event Perhaps it's just the frustration of what looks like the winter of charts that never come to fruition, but it's so hard these days to get a snowfall we can be relatively confident is going to happen and is widespread enough for all to feel in the game. We shouldn't be so excited about what is in effect, a band of Snizzle for the most part.

Honestly, this is all very touch and go. We need to wait until dark/rush hour is with us to have any chance of making the best of this. I know Stoke is high and areas around Dudley etc are at 200M - but down at lowly 70M ASL, living in a dip, surrounded by Cannock chase and surrounded by every small town and village always doing better in any snowfall events - we need perfect parameters.

Couple of worries for me and I think it's a reason that the Met Office have gone with less accumulating snow to lower levels. Looks like the main heavier stuff is likely to be fall later in the day now, whereas for most of this week it's been in the early hours. Massive difference there because during the day light snow will melt/not accumulate sufficiently enough to keep it from turning to puddles. Given that the intensity of second band isn't all that great, it would be falling on to wet/puddles surfaces. So that will diminish things. The best time for falling snow is during the middle of the night, best chance of settling. Great frost pictures this morning.

I don't think many people are hope casting, perhaps you are and that's why you are posting with such a down beat tone to your posts? At no single time this entire winter has anybody in a position strong enough to give you a certified, guaranteed forecast said there is an ice age inbound. Each and every person has discussed what is 'possible'. Thus, using terms like 'could', 'can', 'might'. Therefore, all posts regarding this issue are an opinion and everyone is allowed one.

I'm sure we have done this enough now. This is the model thread - not the discuss the daily Met Office update thread. Secondly, again - these updates change every single day and other than the odd generic theme are about as much use as a chocolate fireguard on the surface of the sun. It works both ways, for cold and mild. They reflect the nature of the days model output and normal climatological bias. They are also extra 'useless' in periods where the weather is volatile.

It was no more or less likely than the 18z GFS showing a Bartlett at T360, I'm sure you'd have pointed that out to us in a tone that wouldn't have been so 'Phantom'. That met update changes for Colder and Milder basically every single day - I'm sure you won't post an update that references potential of colder weather will you? In fact, I don't think I've seen you reference or post it even once....of course when the outlook starts looking milder you are the very first person to drive it down throats on here, normally using the GFS late in FI that is notorious for over doing the climatological norm the second it hasn't got a clue. Backtracking for what? People saying what MIGHT, COULD or CAN happen in the aftermath of an SSW? Oh right, well let me tell you - you MIGHT win the lottery if you do it this week? If it doesn't win then I can only assume you will be calling my 'backtrack' after that? Give up the act, you are the same and have never changed over the years. Only your adjusted wording in recent years has kept you under the radar (or the ignore list) from the trolling. You disappear during cold spells, or when Cold and snow is forecast within a few days. Then re-appear the second there's a +360 hour zonal chart showing on the 18Z GFS to let us know about. Like I say, there's those of us who have been here long enough to know you and those who are relatively new that probably won't pick up on your posting style who are likely to be influenced by your OTT use of the GFS at stupid timescales and near incessant tracking of milder/Atlantic conditions to build an agenda suited by your preferences - IE, an Atlantic driven, Bartlett style mild winter.

Give over IDO. This is just as much a waste of time as the 'Phantom random block' last night. Anyone with the first clue on Met office updates - should know to take absolutely everything with a truck load of salt. They change on a daily basis and represent the changes amongst model out put each and every day. If they had been correct, this winter would have been extraordinarily mild and weather with a raging Vortex over Greenland that hadn't moved. Nonsense. Getting hung up on these from day to day is the exact reason why this thread descends into chaos every time a cold spell doesn't go as it might do. I admire how you have changed your posts in recent years to include little rhetorical questions that hint at positivity, but there's those of us that have been here long enough to know your tone, style and overall hopes for winter. The best subtle troll there is on the internet, but that won't ever change. Back to the ignore list.

Absolutely nobody can give you an even remotely logistical response to that question. What are tonight's lottery numbers? Take each run as it appears and then use EPS/GEFS to follow trends.

I can understand the disappointment with regards to what you had hoped would be the final outcome with this SSW mate, but otherwise please be absolutely nothing but positive. Anyone with the first clue on the weather knows you could line 1 million people up and ask them all to give an opinion on what is most likely to happen after an SSW happens and all of them would be varying levels of incorrect. I think we should all just take a moment to sit back to reflect here and understand that the main art or the main aspect of an SSW is the original forecasting. I have to congratulate yourself @Scott Ingham @CreweCold @feb1991blizzard @chionomaniac amongst many others for a quite brilliant piece of forecasting, in terms of expecting and predicting an SSW to actually happen. Not only did virtually every professional on the net go for a mild, wet and Zonal driven winter with the Vortex covering the entire of Greenland for all of the winter but literally no models decided to even hint at an SSW until long after you guys first mentioned it. Not only did you all just say 'yes it could happen' - there was numerous examples of patterns and pre-cursory history that were demonstrated, well backed up and then have actually gone ahead. Some of these whilst people were still dusting the BBQ down in September! You all (and the others that I've forgotten and couldn't possibly list) have out-thought and out-performed models and companies worth hundreds of millions of pounds, if not billions - just by simple analysis and use of historic patterns Quite brilliant and we should all be thankful of having people with this calibre of ability and experience on our forum. Regardless of whether some people can't decipher between use of the words 'can', 'might', or 'could' and may indeed send some criticism your way because it hasn't/won't lead to the next ice age, just ignore that. Some can't control their emotions even in the face of stark realistic facts. Well done!

Further proof that the GFS is flawed Hopefully it changes for the better mate, but it's the original source of air that's the issue here.

Hi John, no worries. It's like trying to knock down the great wall of China with your head on this forum at times. It wasn't meant to be aggressive, but the 'softer' tone of message tends to do nothing to help all of the sane posters on this website so I figured I'd be a bit more blunt about it. Hopefully it catches a few eyes. Think you have missed the point there. I'm ashamed to be associated with a certain section of posters on this website, particularly just lately with all the overblown SSW-gate drivel where people have clearly hung on the every word of other posters and then interpreted that an ice age is coming. Much like society itself with this whole Covid saga, it's embarrassing to be British at times. Why would an account suspension be required or even mentioned? I'm as cool as a cucumber. I'm trying to get others to follow suit. I preached the exact point that John himself and many numerous other long standing posters/moderators in here have done; stay calm and don't take things at face value every 6 hours or else you will find yourself going mad. Don't think an SSW brings you guaranteed cold. The only difference is that I used Bold to enhance the points I was trying to make. Thank goodness you will never make it as a mod on this website. We'd have the best members suspended for telling us to stay calm...

Doesn't matter when it's sourced from a warm/mild part of the world. Especially when DP's come into the fold. You can have -16 uppers, but if DP's aren't favourable all that will fall out of the sky is rain.

The time of year has nothing to do with it. The air is wrapped around and sourced from the Med, a naturally mild location. Until that changes, it's not going to snow - unfortunate and frustrating yes, but it's just a fact of the weather.

The gullibility of people on this forum absolutely never ceases to amaze me, it's borderline comical. I'm ashamed to be part of a forum where a large majority of users can't interpret what people are saying and then apply it to really the most basic common sense. It's like the second an SSW is mentioned said users are spreading Chinese whispers about an ice age coming, how foolish? No wonder we are constantly fed news about front door scams, bank issues etc. There has to be a massive congratulations to the likes of Catacol, Chio, Scott, Feb, Bluearmy, Crewe etc - these guys went against the 'best', most expensive and technologically advanced computer forecasting models in predicting this SSW would happen and it has that is the best bit of forecasting on the website this year. I actually feel a bit sorry for these guys now though, even when discussing events after an SSW, they consistently used phrases such as 'might' or 'could do' - no guarantees, no promises. Yet as per usual when an ice age isn't showing the second an SSW starts in the Strat, people are launching toys like no tomorrow - it's embarrassing? Can people not control themselves? Seen as a good portion of people seem to need to rely on opinions of others to survive, let's sit down in the classroom and do some lines. 'An SSW does not GUARANTEE cold and snow to our 700 mile islands'....repeat 'An SSW can bring poor wintry weather to the UK'....repeat 'I must not use people's opinions to build up my hopes'....repeat 'If I live along the south coast, south west or inner London my hopes of Wintry weather must remain lower than the rest of the UK'...repeat 'An SSW is a weather phenomenon. We can't ignore winter output for 6 weeks because one may happen' People do understand the basic logic of an SSW don't they? All it does is slightly increase the chances of cold and snow for the UK? It's no guarantee, it's no banker and it certainly isn't worth some of the hype that goes into it. We have a very small sample size of what an SSW does? We do realise an SSW isn't a new thing in the weather, it's just that we are only now reaching an understanding with increased use of charts and data available? A particularly important comment I feel....'SSW's have been happening since the earth was formed...but UK winters are nearly always rubbish' - how can we be any clearer on taking the impact of an SSW with a pinch of salt? If all of that wasn't enough, the UK is in the VERY worst location for any reversal in the entire of Europe. We are the furthest point away from any cold reverse and constantly the first at risk of an Atlantic sea that is so bias and so over-powering in this part of the world. That means everything has to go our way and anything can go wrong. I'm not sure how it can be made any clearer? People need to be approaching the thread/today's 12z with the view that we are looking at normal standard January weather conditions, if the SSW has any good impact - then that needs to be viewed as a bonus.

I have to say we have been spoilt this week and I am being very greedy. Friend just sent me a video from Stone and it's a whiteout. The angle that the front is moving through at leaves a split right over our heads in Rugeley. Haven't posted in here yet, but we had our 3rd spell of falling/accumulating snow this morning. Along with 1-2CM Monday and the same Tuesday AM, we have been very lucky here this week. More snow this week than we have in a couple of winters sometimes! Good luck to everyone else.

Absolutely, I'm not trying to suggest not talking about it. My point is, there needs to be more balance between now and what has a long shot chance of happening weeks ahead. This thread is great and I wouldn't want it any other way. But when people start dismissing weeks and weeks of winter and then using something that 'might' or 'could' happen in the future as a reason why, people are actually missing the weather that's happening. This week and next week are a perfect example.

Re-read it. You are completely mixed up. Even with an SSW, the UK is a tiny island on the edge of the Atlantic, surrounded by sea's at every border. An SSW still needs a lot to fall our way to provide. Do people genuinely believe/think that an SSW is this likely to bring Armageddon to the UK?

I'm not a bookies pal, you know exactly the point I'm trying to make. I was also referencing a 2 week spell, not an entire winter. Any given 2 week spell of a 3 month winter, yes - 1000/1 isn't a bad shout. Simple fact, SSW's increase the chances of cold - they aren't guaranteed, they don't help keep expectations low and they are an incredibly fickle (but fun) thing to understand and watch unfold. There is absolutely no mention in my post of an SSW failing, more the fact that experienced members are throwing the towel in weeks before you would potentially see an increased chance of cold, snowy charts. Something that hasn't and is likely to NEVER happen - so how can the wheels have fallen off something that doesn't exist? It can't/they can't. Ironically, better looking wintry charts than usual are unfolding before +T120, but they are barely getting a mention, just seems foolish to me. As Steve mentioned this morning this forum is hilarious. When cold shows at 2 weeks, everyone can't wait to jump on how unlikely they are and to take them with a pinch of salt. You could then have a 1963 style January but the first sign of 850's getting below -10 at T384 and people are fretting about the breakdown, it's over, mild, ENS, GEFS, eps, winter is over. Nonsense. Be all, end all - SSW may bring cold, it may not - calling a spell of modelling that's not even happened and may never happen isn't just silly, it's impossible.