JonMillar

And in Arnold!

World Trade Center site

Invest 98L given a high chance of turning into a tropical storm this weekend. Forecast to affect the Leeward islands before being whisked north, missing the mainland but threatening Bermuda later.

96L up to 90% looks like Oscar could be on his way A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. Update: Now TD15 - it may briefly get to Tropical Storm status but is likely to dissipate in 48 hrs.

What is the prognosis for Invest 96L? Currently at 70% possibility of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hrs. Edit: Found it Another FISH!

Here are the 12z charts from Friday 27th January through to Tuesday 31st January for 12.00 yesterday together with the 12z t+00 for yesterday 5th February http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png The much maligned Sunday run did push the milder air through too much. It seems it was over correcting from the runs of the previous days. However, the Monday run itself over-corrected in the other direction until at about t+120 it got closer. I think it just shows the difficulties the models have with dealing with anything over t+120 - t+144 at the moment, and that things will keep swinging around quite violently until you get into the reliable time frame.