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Everything posted by DiagonalRedLine

  1. One of the GFS’s brothers, Perturbation 11, has definitely thrown too much drink down its throat tonight from zee pub! Maybe one of the very first few runs to send the -5*C 850 hPa temperature line over the UK for the beginning of October. Thanks to its strong blast from the North! Perhaps a bit of sleet or snow in heavier showers over modest ground (this more likely at night and early morning), especially over Northern UK. While I wouldn’t mind seeing further outbreaks of warm and bright Summery weather like what’s been occurring recently, this is all for a bit of fun. Probably only something that could happen in a dream at this time of year
  2. 9.7*C and 70mm rain/snowfall, please. Cheers. Probably starting fairly chilly. High Pressure eventually building to our East over Mainland Europe bringing a very warm spell. A very chilly end to the month with a cold unstable North-North-Easterly flow accompanied by embedded troughs bringing widespread heavy snow showers (I wish anyway lol).
  3. Seems to be getting to that time of year in the models where that excitement of cooler and chillier weather slowly starts to creep in for a few, especially if it’s from the North-West or North. In the meantime, some further warm or very warm weather to continue for next few days, with the best of the settled and warmest conditions clinging onto the South-East and generally cooler and breezier further North-West. But even South-Eastern areas could see a few showers (some of which could be thundery) at times.
  4. 14.2*C please with 67mm rainfall. Have a feeling it will be average overall - perhaps a warm start, with a cold spell towards the end and some snow over Northern hills.
  5. Will go for 15.5*C please. Maybe a warm or very warm start, but more in the way of cooler weather towards the end. Rainfall: 74mm
  6. Not everyone will agree, but these thunderstorm setups mimics the same excitement as that of snow!
  7. Frequent flashes and some quite constant rumbles in Solihull now. Gone quite mad out their!
  8. The ECMWF 00Z is like a thunderstorm factory this morning. Aside from the chances of thundery weather these next few days, the model shows further Low Pressure systems running in from the South-West engaging with some warm air. The 850 hPa air isn’t as warm as it would be this week, but that Low could still spark off some further thundery surprises next week. This all seems to depend how well the model is handling those Low(s) next week. How much of a Southerly track they have and the speed at which some of these Lows could move in from the South-West or West (also the amount of ridging that could get thrown up ahead of these Lows) could affect whether further episodes of warm, or very warm/hot and thundery weather occur. As that usual saying goes, the weather does as it pleases. Plus, probably not worth getting too far ahead considering there’s some very warm or hot and, at times, stormy weather for some to look forward to these next few days.
  9. I admit it was a rough estimate, and also me playing it safe with the 25*C plus, prediction!
  10. Indeed! As you say, the 00Z ECMWF does show some impressive 850 hPa air over the South-Eastern UK towards the end of its run. For a bit of fun at that time-frame, but I guess with enough sunny breaks, temperatures could quite easily reach 25*C+ in some South-Eastern spots. Great post!
  11. Even though quite like the hot weather, these sort of temperatures today do feel more comfortable. Albeit that it’s a little bit windy. Still pleasant though! Great for a walk.
  12. That’s fair enough! Those sort of temperatures aren’t for everyone!
  13. Quite recently reached 30*C in this part (now 30.2*C to be precise). Pretty much blue sky all around! Really June-like at the moment.
  14. Bang on 30*C here in Solihull. Don’t suspect it will beat what London (and/or other South-Eastern) areas are likely to experience lol! But still decent. Think those of you who have guessed 32*C and over towards the South-East, look as though you could very well be close to the mark!
  15. Just an overview of the operational models between 120 hours to 240 hours this morning: GFS 00Z The GFS starts with a thin ridge of High Pressure from the South-West of the U.K poking its way through mostly Southern UK. A Low Pressure system in the mid Northern Atlantic then slides down to the North-East of the UK likely to bring some rain and showers (probably most likely for Northern and Eastern UK areas). We then see High Pressure from the South West of the U.K ridging back in, with the Highest of the Pressure over Southern UK, but Northern areas could see some settled, brighter weather too! Warm too, especially in sunnier spells. Around 240 hours a shallow area of Low Pressure takes over from the North-West with Pressure lowering a little over the UK. But doesn’t look like anything particularly unsettled! ECMWF 00Z The ECMWF at 120 hours starts with a bit more of a stronger build of High Pressure from the West/South-West over the U.K compared to the GFS. Some slightly stronger upper heights I suspect helping out with this. It makes less of a feature of that Northern mid-Atlantic Low, which gets mostly pushed to the North of the U.K (though Northern areas around 144 hours would probably see a few showers). For generally the rest of the run, it has the Azores High Pressure to the South-West of the U.K being mostly in control - the highest pressure concentrated over South and Western areas, but close enough for most areas to stay quite dry! The odd disturbance or two from Low Pressure systems to the North and North-West of the High spilling over the top to affect some Northern UK parts. Especially at 216 hours. Southern and Western areas, though, clinging on to the driest, brightest conditions. Overall, quite High Pressure dominated and nothing majorly wet. GEM 00Z Starts out fairly similar to the 00Z GFS with a wedge of High Pressure from the South-West ridging through mostly Southern UK. Again, a Low Pressure system to the North-West of the UK puts some pressure on the ridge and holds the High Pressure out to the West/South-West of the UK. But close enough to keep a fair amount of areas, especially to the South and West of the U.K, settled. And while Northern areas could see a bit of damp weather, that Low doesn’t make a huge impact for the U.K. Ridging of High Pressure then builds back in through most areas of the U.K and the High seems to then transfer more towards the East and South East of the U.K. Becoming quite warm I imagine in places. Some shallow and weak areas of Low Pressure do try to squeeze in from the West towards us between the Greenland High and the High Pressure to the South-West over the U.K, which could bring some rain and thundery showers in places. Quite a different ending compared to the ECMWF, and especially the GFS. Still, apart from the end of the run, it doesn’t seem terribly unsettled. Maybe more settled than unsettled. Especially for Southern UK. Despite going out up to 144 hours, the UKMO sticks to a similar theme of High Pressure being in generally control both Thursday and Friday next week. The highest of the Pressure and upper heights towards the South West and the lowest of the surface and upper heights to the North-East towards Scandinavia. The 6 to 10 day 500mb mean chart from the NOAA sticking to a similar theme: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php
  16. This is very useful. Seeing how lightning storms have progressed since the early 2000’s. Cheers for that!
  17. Models please guys. Cheers! We don’t want to have to unlock our puny dungeon and throw you inside. The conditions in there are much, much, much worse than the current weather outside! 🌧 Edit: Thanks to a message from someone, just to also add, anyone who tries to stir up trouble in here and deliberately brings the mood of the thread down, could get locked up in that little, smelly, dark room for a while.
  18. I confess about mentioning that some of the storms moving up from the Channel would regenerate and that the thunder and lightning would increase once they hit the South and South-Eastern UK shores. Got that quite wrong and am happy to admit that. (Although not much of an expert with storm forecasting). Wasn’t expecting anything here, but even though storms aren’t the easiest thing in the galaxy to predict, can understand some of the disappointment you guys have had. The forecasters can only do their best, to be honest. Their may not have been anything really, really spectacular last night and this morning for most, but pleased that some of you got to see some thunder and lightning. Not confident that their will be much in the way of a thundery breakdown for Southern UK areas during the weekend (unless I guess the Low Pressure from the West can track a bit more further South. Northern areas however could be in for a surprise). Mind you, it is still a little while away to worry too much about at the moment. Apart from quite a decent storm last year in May, and the impressive overnight light show in July some years ago, feels like thundery activity in some parts has decreased. Pretty sure here, we used to get one or two decent afternoon thunderstorms (almost) every year back towards the 90’s and early 2000’s. And I think a few instances of some strong overnight continuous thunderstorms. It’s possible that selective memory could be getting in the way, though it still feels like thundery activity, along with intense, torrential, downpours to go along with it, seems fewer in the last 10 years. Bar a few odd exceptions. With a good chunk of Summer to go, it’s good idea just to have faith and pray that we’ll get some smashing bangers within the next couple of months or so! Especially should the rest of this week, including the remainder of today, struggle to deliver much in the way of thundery activity. Could become very warm or boiling for some of the hot weather enthusiasts in here, particularly over Southern areas. (Although I still understand quite a number of us in here are after storms, too). ️
  19. Playing back and forth through the last few radar frames, the storm does seem to have become a bit more king-sized!
  20. Wish I knew. Maybe the storm will regenerate (thunder and lightning wise) after it crosses the channel and reaches the South coast, perhaps with some new areas forming!
  21. That is pretty decent to be fair. Those in Southern or South-Eastern areas of the U.K could be in for a great thundery treat should that area of precipitation hold up well as it shifts North/North-East. ️
  22. Fair enough! Looks like it’s developed even more since last viewing the radar!
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