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DiagonalRedLine

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Everything posted by DiagonalRedLine

  1. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Hey there Midlanders! Please continue your discussions of the weather here in the Midlands. It’s been a fun week overall. Most of us seeing heaps of snow, and even blizzards with gale force winds. Snow pretty much falling everyday here from Monday till Saturday! What’s been impressive is the depth of the cold with the -15*C 850 hPa temperatures greeting us and seeing snow that is of the dry and powdery kind! What a roller coaster it’s been as well - the suspense and tension of seeing those snow bands trying to hold their power as they head to the North Midlands and instances where a heavy snow shower might have missed an area by a mile or two to the North, South, West, or East! With a thaw now evident, looks like it is farewell for the snow for most (though always that possibility of snow paying more visits further down the line). But it’s been great and have enjoyed reading all the reports and chats! As usual, please be on your best behaviour in here and watch what you do with your toys! Cheers 😉 Previous thread:
  2. Looking at the latest NOAA/CPC 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly chart, it looks like maybe the operational models (such as the 12/18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF), are being a little too quick to breakdown the May-esque conditions. 🤔 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php Guess it does depend on the transition period of any possible decline to more unsettled conditions, plus the speed to which the lower heights take over, which would affect how high the positive anomalies are over the U.K. Otherwise, either the likes of the ECMWF, GFS (including some GEFS ensembles) are being a bit too progressive with their breakdown mid next week (especially for Northern UK areas), or the anomaly chart may fall more into line with the operationals on its next run. While the surface UK High Pressure itself may lose some power next week, I suspect the upper UK High may cling on a bit longer before possibly getting pushed away further East by the Atlantic trough.
  3. Great thread - this was an interesting read. Thank you! Certainly a lot of passion and thought injected into your findings and reasons!
  4. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Just recently had a bit of sleet mixed in with the rain as it got heavy. Wasn’t really expected that!
  5. It looks like next week things will start to dry out as models show the Azores High Pressure system stamping its foot over and to the East of the U.K scaring away the fiendish Atlantic Lows. (The exact positioning of the High is a bit uncertain and some North-Western areas could still get rampaged by some soggier weather at times). But it looks like a more settled and brighter spell, especially for South-Eastern UK, will develop. Which am admittedly looking forward to. As what’s been the case this Winter, the models are starting to throw out some garden path charts for those who love the cold and snow. It is possible that the likely mid-latitude block next week could get lifted further North with High-Latitude-Blocking occurring with some colder and perhaps snowier weather breaking out. May just be a false alarm again. Wouldn’t get too sucked into some of the dreamy stuff the models are unleashing apon us (particularly if support for this evolution doesn’t grow). Since, however, it is the time of year where the Atlantic is likely to become somewhat more sleepy, there could be a better chance of something like this coming off. While March can deliver some very cold and snowy conditions still, feel this may be the last shot this Winter of seeing some possible freezing and snowy conditions along with blocking to our North.
  6. Must admit, for those who like the cold and snow, the operational models are like something out of a scary movie this morning. I suppose, at best, a few odd cooler Polar Maritime flows following behind the Tropical Maritime South-Westerly flows looks possible at times. Hopefully February will still be a month that delivers! Even if it means waiting a little. And that nothing goes wrong.
  7. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    I know the feeling, man! 😔 Days like today are definitely the worst when their’s all that snow on radar, but it all dodges you! This month may still deliver. Even March could. But to be honest, really can’t wait for Spring now!
  8. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Really do hope so!
  9. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Been disappointing, but was probably expected. Same with some others, doesn’t look like anything fell here last night! 😟 Can only hope for those that haven’t seen even a flake, that some snow showers will come and smash our snow shields.
  10. Noticed on the 00Z GFS that the Scandinavian High and the Atlantic trough are back for another fight later next week. For once, it would be nice to see the Scandinavian High win the battle! Also without the Azores High causing any funny business. (Should this sort of scenario develop next week anyway). Having said that, congratulations to those in the South who got some white stuff today.
  11. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Didn’t realise Dominos Pizza did this! Expensive. But very very tempting... Our troubles would be over! 🤩
  12. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Should have told my mum it’s not going to snow in the Mildands, then we could be guaranteed a big dumping! 🥳
  13. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Yep, can confirm a few wet snowflakes mixed in the rain in Solihull. 🙂 Should be on Cyclonic Happiness’s way very soon!
  14. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Personally hope it turns to snow here before dark. Just find daytime falling snow more exciting than nighttime falling snow.
  15. Probably just end up with a solution between what the latest ICON shows and the models that have it the furthest North. Could say a half-way house really. Think you’re prediction of Wales and the Midlands (especially West Midlands), being the most affected will probably be close to the mark.
  16. It’s okay! 🙂
  17. Have a habit of going a bit too far sometimes lol 🙈 Apparently there’s a lot of chat on here that a lot of places in the U.K could see something white - snow I believe. 🤔 Especially tomorrow and Thursday - the latter looking to be the big, juicy, one! Just hope for us and the rest of the cold and snow fans in here we’ll all get some of the white stuff we’ve been longing all Winter. This week certainly has the chance to deliver some great wintry events for places with models showing some sliding Lows over Southern UK ❄️ Only thing is while it would be great for everyone to get some white stuff, just got to hope the Lows won’t go too far North or too far South. Wouldn’t want anyone South of the M4 to be getting the wet stuff! 😛
  18. Everyone’s covered it well, so just a little summary of the models for the next few days. Tomorrow: something white could fall from the sky. Wednesday: something white could fall from the sky. Thursday: alien invasion from the South-West. Friday: alien invasion continues for parts of the U.K threatening the island with lots of white powder! Saturdays: the aliens may continue the invasion, then go back home for tea on Saturday night.
  19. I believe so! It’s tail may just save this Winter for us! 🤔😉 (Although it’s true as others say, this week could see a great taste of Winter for a lot of us with the models showing those Southerly tracking Lows).
  20. Think you’re right. It’s certainly not one organised big evil purple blob.
  21. One thing about the 12Z UKMO at 96 hours - it’s going for the bunny rabbit Low over the U.K. Really hopping to it with cold weather.
  22. Will go for 6.5*C, please. Mild and dry overall I feel, but with a 5 day cold and snowy spell around 10th to 15th February. Rain/snowfall: 50mm
  23. Been flicking through the GEFS 18Z Perturbations regarding mid/later next week’s possible sliding snowy Low. Most, on the whole, generally track the cyclone through the South of the U.K. The timing not the same on them all (it is still a fair way out). Also, a few odd ensemble members seem to develop extra Low centres and runners. The Low on some perturbations take on a grumpy and stormy appearance, which would give serious disruption to places! The monster snow machine tracking over Southern UK would seem like the favoured route for this Low on these latest GEFS. Very tense situation with lots of snowy awards should the Low Pressure systems play nicely!
  24. I’m here! 😈 A recharge does sound like a good idea for some. 🔋 I’m afraid I can’t use my magic Model thread disappearing powers anymore. @Paul warned me if I pressed the ‘hide’ button again, snow would no longer exist! And if that wasn’t bad enough, there would be no more hail, no more thunderstorms, or even anymore more sleet! 😱 I’m sorry dude. It’s a sacrifice I’m not willing to make! 😪
  25. To be fair, while not totally model related, think your viewpoint will be echoed by others who’ve been frustrated by the up and down nature of the models recently. Can be an exhausting feeling keeping up to date with all the runs all the time and worrying what they’re going to show. Compared to what they were showing yesterday on their 12Z runs, the likes of the GFS and ECMWF this morning seem to be somewhat of an improvement for cold conditions, dropping Low Pressure systems far enough East to the South of the U.K drawing in chillier 850 hPa air from North and East. Not quite North-Pole conditions where making igloos would really be that possible. Could also do with stronger blocking to our North. Still, though, feels like the overall theme is their for North-West to South-East tracking Lows with some amplification of High Pressure around the Atlantic/Western Atlantic area at times. But suspect their will be a fair more changes coming our way - especially with the way models continue to handle the behaviour of the Low Pressure systems next week.
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