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Everything posted by DiagonalRedLine

  1. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Hey there Midlanders! Please continue your discussions of the weather here in the Midlands. It’s been a fun week overall. Most of us seeing heaps of snow, and even blizzards with gale force winds. Snow pretty much falling everyday here from Monday till Saturday! What’s been impressive is the depth of the cold with the -15*C 850 hPa temperatures greeting us and seeing snow that is of the dry and powdery kind! What a roller coaster it’s been as well - the suspense and tension of seeing those snow bands trying to hold their power as they head to the North Midlands and instances where a heavy snow shower might have missed an area by a mile or two to the North, South, West, or East! With a thaw now evident, looks like it is farewell for the snow for most (though always that possibility of snow paying more visits further down the line). But it’s been great and have enjoyed reading all the reports and chats! As usual, please be on your best behaviour in here and watch what you do with your toys! Cheers Previous thread:
  2. Howdy! Please continue your discussions of the weather in the South of the M4 (aka the South West and Central Southern England ) thread! What a remarkable month it’s been so far with a lot of dry, bright weather around, although it looks as though you guys could see a few of these baby’s popping about! Ye olde thread:
  3. Greetings fellow Scotlanders Another fresh, sparkly thread for you to continue your discussions of the weather in this elegant land! The other thread became very big! With another Beast bursting out of the cage from the East, it looks like the white stuff could return for some of you. ️ As I often say, please be good and no throwing any missiles anywhere should the weather not do what you want. Thank you! PS - Also included a copy of MoreSnow’s post in here due to him being the first morning poster on the previous thread and to also help keep the chat going. He hee Double PS - Previous thread:
  4. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    After the great disappointment of 2012 with the failed ECMWF Easterly, being cautious for now. Some pretty charts though, despite snow looking marginal. However, charts such as those from the 00Z ECMWF would probably be cold enough for some sleety stuff to this level.
  5. Considering the sort of charts that are starting to appear, and since it’s getting closer to the crazy season, it’s time to start re-opening up this store. Might also be worth saying that your access to this store will be banned if we see lots of bad behaviour from you in this thread during Winter! Just an advance warning...
  6. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Ar lucky! If only iPhones, Samsungs etc could last that long, lol.
  7. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Thanks Midlands Ice Age! Ar man, hopefully another time for you. Was pretty incredible to see such structures.
  8. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Ar, that’s just typical! Darn phone batteries!
  9. DiagonalRedLine

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Was a brief shower here recently, but otherwise been dry. Did feel pleasant out in the sun. There was some interesting cloud structures of the shower when walking through Sheldon Country Park.
  10. Some pretty nice CFS runs their! If the Atlantic was to make more of an influence and that (some of the) models might be under-estimating it, may the Atlantic just pay a brief visit. On a personal level anyway (but I appreciate some may want it to be more of dominant force). Suppose really, there’s no guarantees how long any blocking we have will last. Clearly it’s not impossible it could be more of a shorter-lived affair than what it first seems. Still likely, at least, this week will become more settled for places, especially for Eastern parts, with a build of Pressure to the East of the U.K.
  11. Yeah, the North-Western Europe area would say seems the favourite place for now for the High Pressure. The models do appear to hint at that. It’s possible that Beast may not be too far away! Guess it will depend for sure how that block behaves. And I guess you could say that, lol. Not just an exit from Brexit, but the models would have us believe we’ll be leaving the Atlantic! (At least for the time being ).
  12. Using the 144 hour samples from various operational models, and they do all seem to shake there hands with each other regarding a more settled picture developing. High Pressure influencing the U.K from the East vanquishing the evil powers of the Atlantic Lows! 00Z UKMO 00Z ECMWF 00Z GEM 06Z GFS 00Z ICON Some do have the Scandinavian/European High Pressure a little further East than others, especially the GFS and ICON. Essentially, however, an outlook free of the wet stuff! With the flow looking to be between the South and East, probably quite sunny at times in places too with a flow over a short(ish) sea track off the nearby continent. And helping to raise the temperatures to some mild levels during the day. An example from the 06Z GFS for next Saturday and Sunday daytime. But nights likely to be chilly. And providing the flow is free from much windy conditions (does look as though the flow will be quite slack at times with the isobars fairly spaced out), then mist and fog is possible for places. There’s always chances that the Eastern UK block could end up getting knocked away further East as it tries to ridge Northwards from the South-East of the U.K in the next few days, but this seems unlikely. Support for the European block to settle things down for the U.K is high! Sorry Atlantic (and your wind and rain), but it looks like you’re gonna lose! For those areas, such as parts of Wales and some North-Western UK spots that have had particular problems with flooding, it will provide a relieved break!
  13. Just to add, the 8 to 14 day 500mb mean chart from the CPC/NOAA continuing with its very positive height signal over Scandinavia, supporting the idea of blocking to the East/North-East of the U.K. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php While the chart does have negative anomalies in the mid and Western Atlantic with a slack South to South-West upper flow over the UK, it’s possible the Atlantic trough may stay far enough away to cause much trouble. Compared to recent days, probably enough encouragement to suggest the weather becoming more calm and generally more settled for the UK.
  14. Expect the underneath of beds and the behinds of sofas to be occupied as the scary GFS 00Z run rolls out.
  15. Looks to be further spells of wind, rain and showers for places in the UK for the next few days. Low Pressure taking charge to the North-West of the U.K. 00Z GFS used to illustrate this. Compared to the last few days, the Atlantic Low that has been stalling in the Atlantic, does penetrate a little bit further East, pushing our favourite (or not-so-favourite) Eastern UK blocking High somewhat further East. The worst of the unsettled conditions being around North-Western parts of the U.K. and will be the coolest in those areas. Some brief ridges, especially next Tuesday as shown on the last chart above on the 00 GFS, will help bring some brighter breaks between the rain and showers. Though South-Eastern areas probably benefitting the most from this. And the area seeing more in the way of less-cool/milder conditions at times. Then, this is where things start to heat up again. Using the likes of the GFS, ECMWF and GEM at 192 hours, the blocking comes back for revenge over and to the East of the UK. 00Z GFS 00Z ECMWF GEM Around that time-frame, would say, generally, both the ECMWF and GEM have the Scandinavian High Pressure being the most influential towards the U.K. It would be dry and mostly settled, especially towards Eastern parts. And with the flow quite possibly being slack at times, some mist and fog at night too along with some frosty weather. There are questions as to whether the Eastern UK block can migrate Westwards and become more concentrated directly over the UK, or just to our West in the Atlantic (or possibly around Iceland or Greenland - though don’t feel there is much confidence of that happening. At least not yet). Would help for the blocking to migrate as far North as possible over the U.K. or Scandinavian area. And the blocking High Pressure also being place favourably to bring lots of vertical Warm Air Advection towards the Pole via long drawn Southerly winds (bit like what some mentioned earlier) to give the Vortex a big smack! Otherwise, failure for the block to get far enough North and there could indeed be a risk of the Atlantic stamping out the block. Particularly should any Lows in the Atlantic fail to show much of negative tilt to them. Will depend how things continue to develop in the next few days or so. For now though, it looks like a battle between the two forces will re-emerge next week.
  16. Temperature-wise, those maximums of 16 to 18*C could almost be passed off as a (very) cool Summer’s day. Pretty incredible if some of those ensembles came off. (I admit though I’m looking forward to a colder end to the month (should it happen)), but some mild or very mild weather before-hand would be fine, too).
  17. Ar man! Supposed to be going to Wales this week (Cardiff area), so personally do hope it doesn’t turn out to be as soggy as it seems on that chart! Appears to be a problem sometimes when you get those stalling Lows out in the Atlantic with rain bands being slow to shift and clear. Even a cold, dry setup would be (far) more preferable than what’s coming up this week.
  18. The ECMWF seems to be fairly consistent with High Pressure becoming more concentrated over, and/or to the South of, the U.K towards the end of its runs. Examples of both runs today between 192 to 240 hours: 00Z ECMWF 12Z ECMWF While both runs do exhibit some differences (Low Pressure over Northern and North-Western UK penetrates a little bit further East on the 12Z run), both have Low Pressure that digs South in the Atlantic earlier in there runs lifting away further North allowing High Pressure to build over the U.K/Southern UK. Mostly dry and settled, more so for Southern areas, if something like this was to come off. Something that could become a trend (which a number of cold and snow fans I doubt would like), should the the likes of the ECMWF continue with this sort of idea. Still far away and could change - there’s no guarantees that the Atlantic and its Westerlies will break through, particularly for Northern parts of the UK, after this upcoming week. But feel it could be a possibility. (Clearly could as easily see more in the way of undercutting and disruption to those Southerly tracking Atlantic Lows next week with the Eastern UK blocking High being pulled back further West towards Greenland or something. Or perhaps the Eastern UK High may indeed just take a super duper long nap over Europe/Scandinavia.
  19. Yeah true! Must be all that freezing weather. Had to include a little U.K mark on top of the illustration over our part of the world, but even that text is quite hard to see, lol.
  20. Regarding @BruenSryan‘s post, this would be the sort of 500mb anomaly you would need to see for some proper cold and wintry conditions for the UK! ‘Tis important to see a trough of Low Pressure pushing well East into Mainland Europe to our South to help squeeze some polar bear-like weather Westwards towards the U.K. Edit: And let’s keep this place friendly please. Thanks!
  21. Yeah, it is. A lot of thought put into his posts!
  22. Your short range model posts make for a great read. Kinda wish that Low in the Atlantic on the charts could be further West early next week, as will be going to Wales and would love it to stay dry and settled. But I suppose it could be worse.
  23. It might be the day after Halloween, but that 12Z GEFS ensemble member 2 is a spooktacular run for the cold and snow fans!
  24. Yeah, it’s probably better to have something like that happen later, especially when the setups that a beaten up Vortex could lead to, is more likely to deliver more in the way of sleet and snow at that time of year. Providing the Low and High Pressure systems don’t end up in the wrong places for cold and wintry weather over the U.K. (As @MP-R says, having any blocking in the correct places). The models, such as 00 GFS, show that High Pressure will be taking its morning stretch in the Atlantic today: And the same tomorrow: A chilly next few days in the Northerly to Northerly Easterly winds with a mix of showers in places - rain, hail, graupel, with sleet and snow over high ground. 🌦