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Everything posted by DiagonalRedLine

  1. Low Pressure definitely looses the battle for sure on the 12Z ECMWF at 240 hours. High Pressure the winner over the UK
  2. Nope, you’re not allowed to post. Who said you could post in here? Get off the thread, man... ? (Nah, we wouldn’t be that mean ?) Was going to post that the 12Z GEM tries to also bring Summer back with the Azores High ridging towards the UK from the South-West, but been beaten to it by Mike Poole he hee While it’s nothing particularly impressive, the 12Z GEFS ensemble mean, still coming out, keeps Low Pressure to the North of the UK and High Pressure close by to the South and South-West late next week: Southern UK would see the best of brighter, drier conditions, but no full-on UK trough on those mean charts, so changeable probably being the best description for now. Particularly over Northern UK. Further on, and it then shows signs of the Azores High gaining a bit more influence and the unsettled or changeable conditions being pushed away a little more further and further North. Would definitely take that. Let’s hope the GFS answers your prayers ??
  3. Does seem to be a fair amount of bickering in here today. Let’s keep it cool please! ? Everyone does have their own opinion and we all interpret the charts differently. I’ve also got no problem with people challenging others’ posts, (as longs it’s done respectfully and without insulting language). However, apart from the last few posts, anymore bickering and we’ll pour some Vanish solution on the offending posts! ?
  4. Sorry, couldn’t resist ? All just for a bit of fun though ? @TomW No mention of any Kent Clippers on that (made-up) forecast... Get the feeling though, unless I’m mistaken, a Kent Clipper didn’t quite happen in the end? The radar appears to be showing some particularly intense showers around the Western Manchester, Northern Liverpool and Lancaster areas at the moment (looks like one of the ones that affected Weather-history above). Suspect one or two of them over North-Western UK producing a rumble or two.
  5. Some very bad news about the forecast now. Slightly smaller than baseball hail, slightly weaker tornadoes and... only 199 strikes per minute ? (In fact, it’s already not going to plan here with just some on and off rain... ??)
  6. Definitely liking the sound of this. Brilliant news for all storm fans.
  7. Birmingham storm shield just a bit too strong today to allow any thunderstorms to smash through. The darn thing! ? Quite a let down as the Met Office for the Midlands seemed rather confident despite the hot and miss nature of storms. Probably shouldn’t complain, as did pretty well last week. Some spectacular thundery bangers for some further North though. Could be wrong, but can’t help but feel had this troughy, pokey, part of this Low been held back a little bit more South-West, it perhaps could have allowed more time for some storms to break out further South and West. Allowing more areas to also be exposed to the very warm and hot Southerly/South-Easterly flow for longer ahead of that Westerly to South-Westerly flow from the Atlantic. May have then encouraged more stormy activity further South-West (including the Midlands itself). Still a chance for some stormy surprises tomorrow, however, as the main area of the Low to our West edges in further North-East. Along with lowering 500mb heights, should bring about an assortment of showers and longer spells of rain for places, some of which could very well be thundery. Going to try not get too excited yet (especially with what happened today and the fact the storm shields in some areas could prove to be too tough) Nonetheless, there was this interesting (Lenticular?) cloud I took earlier today in Eastern Solihull just before 12pm. View towards the North-West. Worth adding as well that there was one point briefly where the sky became quite threatening, but not enough power in the convective clouds to slice apart the storm shield!
  8. Up to 30.6*C at the moment here. Nice with the sunshine, but just a little too hot, hot hot! Although with fairly modest dewpoints of 12*C to 13*C, not exceedingly humid. Must admit, can’t remember the last time there was a Summer in this part where temperatures didn’t reach 30*C. Perhaps 2012! 2007 though certainly was quite cool at times and wet. All that wet weather in a way made it interesting, as much as it’s my least favourite weather type during Summer. Warm, sunny weather much more preferable (including thunderstorms). But not necessarily baking hot. Kinda like today.
  9. Examples up to Thursday this week above. But with the models building High Pressure over to the East/North-East of the UK further into this week (and apart from Ireland and some North-Western spots at first), it’s looking ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever so slightly chilly this week... ?
  10. Thanks for the new thread, Mapantz ? Feel like tomorrow will be one of those will it? or won’t it? situations regarding storms lol. If not, some afternoon sunshine, should the front pass away quick enough, would still be nice. The way things have gone in the last few days, this Summer so far has been off to a brill start for thundery weather (but I suspect this may not be quite the case for all areas of the Midlands). Saturday, yesterday and today tearing apart the Solihull thunderstorm shield. Incredible downpours, and definitely some of the heaviest rain/hail have seen in a good while. Edit: some recent great lightning pics by LeeKey in the previous thread as well:
  11. Possibly if the showery (and perhaps thundery) rain clears away early enough tomorrow and doesn’t leave behind too much of a mess, some storms could very well start ganging up on us again ?
  12. Few pics and vids of today’s Solihull thunderstorm. Darker more organised clouds then on approach from the South. What’s interesting is that at first the clouds seemed to be pushing in from the East/South-East, but then noticed some low level scuddy and wall-like cloud suddenly pushing in more from the South and South-West. Made me wonder if some kind of low level convergence was happening, as some of the clouds were sorta circulating each other. Got very dark and soon after, a spell of heavy rain and thunder and lightning followed, which increased in frequency. Lasted around 45 minutes to an hour. 2nd thunderstorm of last 2 days, although personally preferred yesterday’s a touch more. Not something that happens often! Does look like quite a few parts of the Midlands doing well again, but looks juicy further South too to the West/South-West of Reading with some beefy showers. So hopefully chance for some storm shields further South to still get crumbled up (for any storm enthusiasts from the South who ain’t seen no storm yet). But imagine there’s some from the South-East longing to leave the No Storm’s Club too. So what do you say weather, fancy letting some of your fellow South-Easterner’s out of the club sometime? ?
  13. Has been a pretty interesting few days, especially for those in the Midlands area (including myself). Some thunder on Saturday. And then quite a naughty thunderstorm today, which mostly rumbled on and off to the South-West, and then an area which exploded into life over here from the East-South-East. Big downpour of rain, hail and frequent thunder and lightning for a time. Rain and hail became like a monsoon at one point! Some building convection earlier in the afternoon (Eastern Solihull), before the weather unleashed its power! ️ Mainly video stills. For a storm, would give it an 9/10. Actually feel like for some, this year has already been more decent, thunder-wise, compared to last year. And to think we’re still in June!
  14. The 12Z NAVGEM would have been a nice chart if it was Winter. Going for the Northerly to North-Westerly scenario over the UK: Pretty chilly for early June. Personally though, not as welcome now (despite liking Northerlies), although a few days of cooler and perhaps unsettled weather wouldn’t hurt. Plants, especially the grass, begging for the wet stuff. So do feel like the Low Pressure systems could do with lobbing explosives towards the various UK rain shields and allow some wet weather to break through. I don’t think either that looking at the NOAA 8 to 14 day 500mb chart tonight their would probably be any major washout conditions. Though considering those large ECMWF rainfall totals someone posted above for South-Eastern UK, you couldn’t locally rule out some heavy areas of rain or showers in some places. Perhaps more so towards Eastern UK. However, as has been covered in the thread, It does look like a few more fine and bright days to come for the UK - High Pressure close to the North-East of the UK over Scandinavia pumping out some further settled weather. And still warm too. But the Easterly breeze may make it feel a little cooler along some Eastern coasts at times. Then a chance for High Pressure to go on a party in the Atlantic out West with a possibility of some cooler, more changeable, weather occurring.
  15. Great post Tamara! (Thought it might be worth pointing out that the EC weekly chart you posted is from 2 runs ago. At least according to a message we’ve had). I always feel so horrible when I point things out though as I always feel like I’m being rude or something. Sorry ??
  16. I think it’s fair to say according to this, the Scottish will be doing the top one today. ?
  17. Just amazing the amount of High Pressure there’s been around. The way it has been generally so dominant. Kinda feels like a repeat of Summer 2018. Perhaps not of the same league, but it’s almost as if the weather has been trying to do a balancing act after how wet it was during Winter. It looks like the models are continuing with High Pressure holidaying over the UK at least for the next few days. Example from the GFS 06Z: The core of the High Pressure migrating Eastwards to be centred over Scandinavia. Very warm at times, particularly in the strong sun! A shallow area of Low Pressure is shown by the model to then drop down from the North-West to the West of the UK early next week. And this then heads towards mainland Western Europe. This of which, could introduce some thundery weather for Western and Southern areas of the UK. So perhaps something to watch out for, particularly if you love storms. Indeed as some say, a possibility to see some more noticeable changes further beyond. Maybe to something less settled/more unsettled as the models broadly show organised Low Pressure areas dropping down from the North with High Pressure becoming amplified to our West in the Atlantic. Not clear whether the Low Pressure will drop down far enough South through the UK or to our East. The GFS 06Z does go for Low Pressure sliding down to the East of the UK introducing a Northerly. Though this scenario definitely not close enough to be certain what will happen. A possibility that High Pressure could always cling by close enough to the West of the UK and deflect Low Pressure away further East. Depending on your weather preferences, for some, it’s an interesting outcome the models are showing and I suppose it could be argued that the plants are in need of a big drink. ?
  18. 15.5*C with 40mm precipitation please. Probably feel it will be a bit more mixed compared to this month, but some similarities to May with a good deal of warm and sunny weather about.
  19. Despite some support for chillier weather, with the way things have gone that wouldn’t be too surprising. ? Is the thing with these Northerlies and such, they often seem to have this habit of doing the disappearing spell as they head closer into the reliable time frame.
  20. The Low Pressure system(s) that has been bringing some spells of rain and showers in places looks as though it will be making a run for it heading a little further East towards Scandinavia: But... just as it does so, another Low Pressure system from the little upper trough to the South-West of the UK will be trying to sneak up on us during Sunday: The dude will spit out a wavy feature across the South and West of the UK and drag some wet weather over South-Western and Southern UK: Mostly light in nature, so probably won’t give the rain shields a massive pounding, though could be some heavier bursts of showery rain across Northern Wales through to Central and Northern Midlands later into tomorrow. Some showers further North over Northern England and Scotland. You can see though that despite some wet stuff that Low in the Atlantic brings, it doesn’t get very far. And as you can see below, that Low Pressure system becomes no match for the High Pressure system to the North of it. The Low Pressure becomes locked away to the South-West of the UK and the High Pressure takes the spotlight over us from Monday onwards (examples below from GFS going up to Thursday - 120 hours): Highest of Pressure over Northern and Eastern UK. It’s possible that the Low to the South-West in the Atlantic could still have enough fighting power to bring a few odd showers (possibly thundery), over South-Western areas of the UK at times. Otherwise should be a good deal of sunshine, especially across North-Western areas. Warm in the sun too. Examples from other operational models at 120 hours: 00Z UKMO 00Z GEM 00Z ECMWF All mostly showing High Pressure sitting about over North-Eastern UK. However, the GEM and ECMWF seems most eager for Low Pressure to the West in the Atlantic to want to try pounce in like a tiger, with a breakdown possible. Although that Low Pressure in the Atlantic on the GEM does fill out as it tries ganging up on the UK: The ECMWF has that Atlantic Low maintaining power as the dude crosses through the UK and becomes partners with the Scandinavian trough. The High Pressure, as some pointed out, gets swallowed up to the North-West of the UK over Iceland and Greenland. And both the ECMWF and GEM show a colder flow filtering down over the UK from the North as a result. The flow probably cold enough for wintry showers, particularly across Northern UK parts. Which if it came off, would be notable for May. Though not unheard of. The 8 to 14 day 500mb mean chart from the NOAA keeps the highest of the heights over Greenland and to the South-West of the UK. A trough of lower than average heights over Scandinavia down towards the UK along with a mean upper flow from the North-West. Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV As such, after the generally more settled and warmer theme of next week, certainly the first part of it, there is a possibility for the weather to become more chilly (perhaps even cold). And probably becoming more unsettled too. Maybe with the best of any settled conditions becoming concentrated towards Western or North-Western areas.
  21. Some heavy rain now, though nothing quite on the torrential level as that storm down South-East.
  22. Some quite beastly looking clouds in the distance to the West towards Solihull/Shirley/Birmingham
  23. Dude, what a great thing to say. And true as well. Have no fear, for that beautiful post will not be put through our gigantic shredder. In fact, the Netweather shredder would probably refuse to tear it apart. ? May not be a huge fan of online social media myself, however it’s great for those times where you feel you need someone to talk to and knowing communities like these can make you feel you’re a part of something. And the good news, such as that from legritter, with his new friend. Hope things do work out great for him. Some rocky times I imagine for a number during the next few weeks or months as we battle through some of the challenges life throws at us (such as what’s happening in the world at the moment). Like a star though, each and one of us shines brightly in the glowing sky! ? This might not be on topic either, but will add that the GEM 00Z towards the end of the run, does show an attempt of ridging from the Azores area to build North through the UK: Unlikely to come off at that range, but your hopes of the weather settling down after this week would come true. ? Something I’d be happy with too. Don’t mind some rain at first, especially from something thundery. Plants will be singin’. ? That rainfall chart Zak M posted for Monday 4th May over Central and Northern Midlands looks insane, too!
  24. 12.5*C and 60mm rainfall. Cheers. Generally leaning towards a very warm month, though I do feel late May could bring a big cool down with some rain, sleet, hail and hill snow.
  25. It does generally look as though a more unsettled picture will be taking over during the next 7 or so days, particularly for North-Western UK areas, as models show troughing developing more over the UK along with some flabby areas of Low Pressure. The Icelandic blocking, despite weakening throughout next week, keeping Low Pressure close and over the UK. The Lows looking to become a little bit more developed throughout that week and probably becoming a bit more concentrated towards Western and Northern-Western UK. Those areas of which would then see the worst in the way of the rain and showers. Certainly chillier than a lot of us have been used to. Again, especially so towards the North and West. Worth saying that compared to what some of the other operational runs show at 144 hours, the ICON 00Z really blows up Low Pressure in the mid Atlantic later next week. 00Z ECMWF 00Z UKMO 00Z ICON Quite an angry boy as you can see ? However, the ICON does lead to a Southerly at 180 hours with ridging of High Pressure being pumped up to the East of the UK over mainland Europe. Along with increasing heights. So a chance that the weather would start warming up again, particularly over Eastern UK, which would see the best of the way of any brighter, drier, spells closest to that ridging. Probably just a bit more retrogression West of that deep mid-Atlantic trough and more areas of the UK could see a more settled, drier spell. Just an example from one model though and not a guarantee this would happen. Some wet weather would be welcome as things have been very dry recently (certainly here). But also seeing some warmer weather return would be great also. As some say as well, with a possibility for some Low Pressure areas to bump into some warmer air from our South and East, things could go bang ️ ?
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