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Everything posted by Andy Bown
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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards
Andy Bown replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Wow that certainly appears supercellular, close to on a par with some US Storm Chase pics and you know your stuff in that regard. What time was it when these 2 were taken and what, roughly, was the postcode so the radar from then can be viewed? -
Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards
Andy Bown replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Definite line of mid level convection drifting N/NE across Warminster. Very clear ahead and behind so makes me wonder if it's a trough forming. -
Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards
Andy Bown replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
September 13th would have been great at night too! Mother Nature had her plume storms 12 hours out of kilter for my maximum enjoyment lol. -
Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards
Andy Bown replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Just being a slight pedant here, it was Saturday 27th August. A very loud early to mid afternoon with constant thunder for several hours while I was at football that made me wish it had been at night. -
Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards
Andy Bown replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
With pressure lowering during Wednesday night and Thursday there shouldn't be a cap in place as under the high a few weeks ago. What we do need though is a lot of hot sunshine Thursday morning to get the temperatures as high as possible then it'll be game on from lunchtime onwards. AltCas watch from late Wednesday too. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
Andy Bown replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Also with the pressure lowering there will be nothing like the cap under the high a few weeks ago. -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
Andy Bown replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It isn't that amazing and is most certainly with precedent as a week to 10 days before the heatwave of 2 weeks ago the charts were full of lows and rain! It is becoming a theme! -
Elevated storms can produce non stop strobe like lightning (which can be seen from well over 100 miles away) and spectacular 'anvil crawlers' as much of the SW experienced on the night of 26th to 27th May. As far as I know surface based storms don't do that although they are more prone to frequent CG lightning.
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The first measurable rain for 19 days since 20.00, so in all honesty it is overdue and much needed. Looks from the current radar that this area will only get a few mm this evening so it will be dependent on how the fronts move/pivot overnight into the morning as to whether we'll get a decent amount this week because Thursday/Friday look half decent despite LOW pressure.
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I think the slow moving/waving front had 3 bites at this area today, each time it seemed to clear South then return North ; bright early then drizzly showers, sunny spells late morning then drizzly showers again, more pleasant sunny spells until mid/late afternoon when the front pepped up giving further drizzle/light rain while a few miles away had pretty heavy showers before it has again cleared to an extent this evening although extensively dull too. I'm guessing the latter pepping up was no coincidence given it was alongside what had been the sunniest/warmest/most humid part of the day. Today was the first with any rain for a fortnight.
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The house has freshened up well today, despite trying everything we couldn't get our baby's room below 28c at his bedtime but he has coped well. His room is at 23c now and the lounge at a respectable 24c while outside is a full 10.6c lower than 24 hours ago! Still it's a very pleasant typically British (rather than Mediterreanean) summer day.~ I am loving the fresh Westerly breeze but I'm sure the other half will moan she's cold lol.
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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017
Andy Bown replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Several weeks ago when it turned unsettled there were model predictions of weeks of bad conditions with people writing off the rest of June. Look how wrong those were!! I can see a similar evolution again with perhaps a few active fronts / lows then a gradual backtrack by models towards better conditions again as the continental conditions gain strength. Granted this would probably favour the East/South more than further North/West but a nationwide long term unsettled period isn't likely. -
31.8c tops today and still 27.3c approaching 21.00! I would expect it to nudge higher tomorrow given a likely higher minimum (this morning's was 17.5) and continued unbroken sunshine but quite frustrating to sense the 2nd week in a row with a very weak/inactive cold front - especially this time given 5 days of high heat!
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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards
Andy Bown replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yes very encouraging mid level instability this morning with plenty of virga and altcas.