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Everything posted by AderynCoch

  1. http://www.meteolink.nl/weerhistorie/tabellen/ Temperature tables, graphs and charts for some notably cold winters between 1740 and 1855 in Zwanenburg (near Amsterdam). Some of the pages have notes to go along with them, though they're in Dutch. The coldest month in the period covered seems to be January 1823 (-7.0C), followed by January 1838 (-6.6C) - the maximum on 24th January 1823 was -17.8C. Also notable is the maximum of -9.4C as late as 13th March in 1845.
  2. I'll be happy to help when I get the time. For the time being, here's a useful link: http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/histclimat.htm
  3. I see I'm not the only one getting impatient with the cloud!

    1. conor123


      Still overcast here :(

  4. What I meant is there's no way Gaddafi and the West will go back to being "friends" again should he completely re-establish his authority. It would be more a return to the 1980s, when he sponsored terrorism against Western targets.
  5. Iraq though involved a full-scale invasion, and Saddam was toppled within weeks. Right now, the air strikes in Libya look only to have succeeded in stopping Gaddafi reclaiming the east and rendering the conflict a stalemate. We now have the option of continuing military involvement and draining more and more resources, or withdrawing and leaving Gaddafi to implement a brutal crackdown and become once more a thorn in our side. If more countries were actively involved in the no-fly operations, it would be easier to say "we've done our bit" and pull out. This is going to drag on and on and I dare not suggest what the final death toll will be.
  6. I can't believe the resolution for a no-fly zone has been passed by the Security Council. I was sure China or Russia would veto it, but they merely abstained.
  7. I remember it being sunny but cold in the run-up to Christmas 1999, before it turned milder and wetter. This continued into January. A non-descript winter if my memory serves me correctly, though apparently it was the sunniest on record (could have fooled me).
  8. Martial law has been declared.I know the situation in Japan is terrible, but it's a shame this is being put on the back burner. You're probably right in thinking that the Saudis have deliberately seized the moment when the world's eyes have turned away from the Middle East - sending Sunni troops into Bahrain is such a brazen thing to do given the nature of the crisis there (Sunni establishment versus Shia majority).
  9. Even with the Arab League's backing, a no-fly zone would surely be implemented primarily by NATO and the US. Any direct intervention spearheaded by western powers will be used by Gaddafi as a smokescreen to try to give legitimacy to his own contemptible actions, and will also be seen to undermine the homegrown uprisings. There's the UN of course, but the Security Council there will be able to do precisely zip so long as China and Russia hold the power of veto. It's a tough one, because it would also be terrible for world powers to sit back whilst a humanitarian crisis unfolds. Some sort of system involving the supply of food and aid with the backing of neighbouring countries would be a start.
  10. 8.9 is simply a massive earthquake, and indeed it's of the powerful megathrust variety which typically induces potent tsunamis (where faulting occurs at subductive plate boundaries). That's now three megathrust earthquakes in little over six years (before 2004, the last one was the Alaskan earthquake of 1964). I have to say I'm quite concerned at some of the reports coming out regarding damaged nuclear reactors...
  11. Eww, far too early in the year to be jumping at images of house spiders! (I love them really)

    1. I remember Atlantic 252

      I remember Atlantic 252

      like your avatar! reminds me of 'coffee and tv' music video, which is class!

  12. The heavy rain passed through here last night and it's quickly turned sunny through this morning. Smug mode. :)

    1. Eugene


      Much colder feeling too, it felt really balmy on thurs/friday

  13. That's the thing - even though the mildness of that era matched the mildness of modern times, one could always rely on other months to be significantly below average from time to time (and just look at some of the cold winter months in the years that followed). 1988-2008 had very little in the way of significantly below average months to offset the mildness. The twelve months from May 2006 to April 2007 were just ridiculous - virtually the warm equivalent of 1740.
  14. This is a strange December: very dry but also very mild.
  15. Hi,

    You probably don't encounter my posts regularly on the forum, but I justed wanted to say how much I appreciate the effort you have put into your posts on the model thread - and I'm sure countless others agree with me. The detractors are definitely in the minority.

    Have you tried using the ignore facility? The model thread will be poorer without you.

  16. Yes, the month from mid-January to mid-February that year averaged about 8C. Yuck!
  17. Being born in 1985, I'm of that select generation whose earliest memories coincide with the start of the mild era, so I've had to wait longer than anyone to see winter cold become the norm again. That's not to say I don't have any other memories to look back on (I can remember many snow events, but it's hard dating some of them), but by the time the sucker punch winter of 2007/08 came round, hot on the heels of 2006/07, I really did wonder if I would ever see cold like this again. 6th April 2008 was the turning point for me - a late surprise fall of snow following a snowless winter. The winter of 2008/09 was then a relief from the mild madness which had become endemic in our winters, but I wondered if that was as good as it could get (it was supposed to be a fabled Hale winter, wasn't it?). Thankfully, 2009/10 put those fears to bed and now 2010/11 has got off to a flying start - whatever December's CET turns out as, it's looking very likely that a month-long period from late-November to late-December will average below 0C, and that really is exceptional. Here's to the next 1683/84. :ph34r:
  18. There was a spate of very cold Novembers around that time: 1910, 1915, 1919, 1923 and 1925 all had Novembers with a CET below 4C, but we haven't one since (and I certainly wouldn't bet on us getting one this year).
  19. One quite extraordinary aspect of this change is how 1985 holds both the record daily minimum for 30th November (-20.9C) and the record daily maximum for 1st December (16.0C). As far as I know these still stand today.
  20. http://bigthink.com/ideas/24670 Merapi erupts on a tragic day for Indonesia Erik Klemetti on October 26, 2010, 9:12 AM The signs were all there that Merapi was headed towards a new eruptive phase and today at ~6 PM (local time in Indonesia), Merapi erupted. This is a double (possibly triple) whammy for Indonesia that is suffering after a M7.7 earthquake off Sumatra that generated a tsunami as well. The Indonesia government has their work cut out for them as they try to evacuate over 50,000 people from the slopes and nearby region around Merapi. The eruption of Merapi today produced three large explosions and an eruption column that has reached at like 1,500 meters / 5,000 feet. Volcanologists in the area seem to think this means that juvenile material (new magma) has made it to the surface and the eruption has begun. Suruno from the Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Agency has already called the explosions that have occurred as bigger than anything that happened during the 2006 eruption of the volcano. There have been no reports of fatalities in this new eruption, but there are some injuries due to ash fall. Information out of Indonesia is going to be slow today with the widespread damage from the earthquake near Sumatra and the eruption at Merapi. I'll keep posting updates as the day goes on - but feel free to leave comments or links below. You can try the Merapi webcam, but at the time of writing, it appears to be down.
  21. I love reading eye-witness accounts of past weather events. They help to give us a reasonably accurate representation of what it must have been like. I'm also intrigued as to how cold some of the individual days might have been. Trevor Harley claims on his website that the first 15 days of January 1684 averaged -6.6C (!), but it's far from clear to me where he could have obtained such specific data (monthly CET data goes back as far as 1659, but daily CET data only goes back as far as 1772). In any case, it's nigh on impossible to imagine a half-month that cold today!
  22. The severe cold of January 1795 caused the Zuiderzee to freeze solid and the Dutch fleet became stranded as a result. Napoleon's cavalry then simply rode across the ice and forced a surrender. I believe this is the only recorded instance of a cavalry capturing a navy.
  23. Interesting stuff. I've always been intrigued as to what the average temperatures of these pre-1659 winters may have been. By all accounts the Great Winter of 1607-8 was a humdinger, perhaps as severe as 1683-4. Qualitative data can tell us a lot: if trees died of frost (as happened in both those winters), you know it must have been bitterly cold. Ditto for other observations such as the sea being frozen, being able to walk across large rivers for weeks on end, the ground being frozen to ridiculous depths, etc.
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