k19
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Posts posted by k19
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I've been trawling the charts, and they all seem to suggest that temperatures drop off quite dramatically as you reach a certain line across the north to north east as shown below:
However I can't see any reason that high temperatures like shown are confined to the area they are. Here are the 850's for the same time:
They seem to be fairly high up to mid Scotland, quite equal across the uk. The Dam Line also reveals little:
The 564 line creeps into the the southwest, but that doesn't explain the temp differential in most of the country.
Given the position of the high I can't really understand how any strong cooler atlantic winds could have a noticeable effect over so much of England.
Can anyone enlighten me?
Thanks
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Hello and good evening to everyone.New poster but long time lurker etc. Love the analysis, love the tantrums, love the quirky tangents and love the attempts at cat herding by the mods too ;-)Model related question: Where can one see/assess the humidity in the various charts or is that something that has to worked out based on the origins of the air within a given system?It has become very muggy this evening in East Anglia, hope the predicted high pressure is drier.thanks :-)
On the netweather GFS charts there is "surface conditions overview" as an option- this includes humidity and dew points. The humidity during the day seems to stay quite low, however the dew points suggest that it will feel more muggy in the west at times.
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Ensembles suggest GFS operational is probably, in fact, an outlier following mid next week in terms of 850's which are generally a good indicator of surface temps.
Saying that, don't read too much in to surface temps predicted even for this weekend. Although high pressure will now almost certainly dominate, the temperatures can vary wildly depending on exact positioning of the highi.e. warm upper air getting pulled from the continent...the pressure gradient that will allow this to reach further north.
If ECM had a max temperature chart for 2m temps I'm sure there would be an interesting contrast
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GfS seems to be tending towards the ECM solution on this run, courtesy of the low being placed over Scotland as opposed to over France.
Once it fizzles out, its position looks like it's going to allow the Scandi and Azores high to link up over us.See how the rest of the run turns out, but at the moment it seems positive.
EDIT: Looking at ECM at T192, it's incredibly similar, at least in comparison to the 12Z GFS & ECM
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This is rubbish, absolute over hype. There's about 2 inches,a little more on the grass and it's melting quicker than it can fall.
...It is March BT. don't forget theres another band after this tonight
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Anyone know what's happening Liverpool way ? Pls
Im in Liverpool
strong wind making light-moderate snow look heavy
looks very wet
not sticking
anything more i.e laying snow will probably be something we find out about when waking up
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Snow almost stopped here despite what's on the radar.
Bad vibes.
In any event backtrack, i can't see a situation where the south of the region doesn't get a significant amount of ppn overnight, most likely snow where you are especially, and I'd be surprised if that was different anywhere else. The only thing I can see as a stumbling block is the high ground temps (for laying snow)
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Dew points seem to be incredibly low across the region, however with the temp still being above 0 we'll have to hope the ground freezes promptly once the temperature drops if we want it to stick.
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I'm mega excited, what a fantastic forecast, the BBC one was awesome, well done Mr Gibbs!
jesus thats a deep fall for march
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after that brief meltdown, it's now snowing in Liverpool, albeit lightly
EDIT: Not sticking, to clarify
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Sorry forgot to post the link!! lol http://www.meteorada...rain-snow-sleet
According to that i'm under snow! Not quite true ha. Perhaps it's picking up light ppn above ground level, before it evaporates on the way down.
On another note, Temperatures should start dropping like a stone over the next couple of hours.
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I find this radar far more impressive than the Met Office radar, it updates every 5 minutes and tell you what the precipitation type is for free. As of 9:25pm precipitation now knocking on the door of Liverpool, its progressing at some rate!
Nout here yet, whats this new radar?
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About an inch here, not even covering all surfaces though, the pavements are patchy.
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Been light snow all day here. Thawing faster than it falls though, no chance of anything sticking until the ground freezes, which I suspect will be quite a bit later.
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These are probably the last flurries now. The front may pivot but it looks a bit mis positioned to bring any extra dumpings.
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Seems to be dying a death now, can't see it getting more intense again, have about an inch here.
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Despite being below 0c not sticking to all surfaces here, any ideas?
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Tell you what, if the front can stall until the secondary front, we're going to be at the center of the convergence zone. That to me spells a period of very intense snowfall.
The current band was progged by 12z GFS to die off around midnight, is it just the intensity that leads you to think it will stick around longer? I'm not sure either way at the moment.
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Same here, are you expecting this to be different tomorrow? I hope so!
Sorry, I'm in Litherland
Colder uppers are supposed to move in through the night, so it should be snow by tomorrow.
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that cant be right. The fax charts had the oclusion inside the low that is just hitting cornwall. It acted as a magnet pulling the ppn back and keeping it over wales. What were getting now has been progged by hot cuppa since monday.
Ian F mentioned it on twitter yesterday, can't find it in a sea of tweets though. I think you're right thinking of it, he expects that occlusion to sit out in the irish sea preventing the front fully passing over us.
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So this band will slowly die away or eventually get eaten by the the other band?
More likely it will stall fizzle out before the other band reaches us. The current band is attempting to travel north east, but as the front pushes in its starting to swing north, and will then try to swing north east, weakening as it does.
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Just to be clear ladies and gentlemen - what we are seeing now is instability in the strong SE wind ahead of the main front. In simple terms some of the warmer moist air has already tried to push east over the cold air. Sometimes this happens in a fragmented way but on this occasion a more organised "blob" of warm moist air has been thrown over us in the form of a mini occlusion. This occlusion is shown on the 12Z fax chart for today:
http://www.netweathe...;type=fax;sess=
Very difficult to track how these mini-features evolve but in this case it's worked out well for the NW giving a reasonably organised band of snow in most places except those near sea level. The fact that this is an occlusion (the warm air is floating above the cold air) means that it will eventually run out of steam, the cold air will mix with it and the snow will stop for a time. Then roll on the main front that is currently sat out across the far SW of the UK and Ireland - due to arrive (if it gets here at all) by tomorrow morning - Hope this helps - Wysi
Interestingly the met office yesterday suggested the downgrade for our area was due to an occlusion in the irish sea not mobilising, perhaps this is what we are now experiencing.
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sorry if its 5 hours old only just got sent it!
Just means it didn't take the 12z into account. Gonna be interesting seeing how this band develops, if the GFS was over reacting on the extent reaching the north west more so it should become obvious through the night. The 18z might also provide further insight.
In 2010 we were not predicted any major snow to start until late in the night, yet out of nowhere the irish sea perked up a streamer which buried us- I remember when it appeared BT suggested covering the cars with blankets as it would likely be a hail storm with the intensity it was showing- but it was just really heavy, unpredicted snow. About 5 minutes before it hit a red warning appeared!
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Found this, 5 hours old though:
North West Regional Discussion 29th March 2013 14:00hrs>
in Regional
Posted · Edited by kev19
Im sure you've all seen this chart thrown around in the model output discussion and I'm not going to suggest for a second that this will happen, 15 days out, one perturbation (be it the control run or not).
However looking at it I feel i must ask would this chart actually result in a large amount of snow in the northwest. We know that north easterlies and easterlies generally don't deliver for us, but this would produce quite a strong front, so would it be enough to overcome the pennine problem?
To me it looks like a fair bit would reach us as we have a low sat of the south west coast drawing in some warm(er) moist air to the flow. But just how bad would it be? (hypothetically, of course)