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Posts posted by k19

  1. Posted Image

     

    Im sure you've all seen this chart thrown around in the model output discussion and I'm not going to suggest for a second that this will happen, 15 days out, one perturbation (be it the control run or not).

     

    However looking at it I feel i must ask would this chart actually result in a large amount of snow in the northwest. We know that north easterlies and easterlies generally don't deliver for us, but this would produce quite a strong front, so would it be enough to overcome the pennine problem?

     

    To me it looks like a fair bit would reach us as we have a low sat of the south west coast drawing in some warm(er) moist air to the flow. But just how bad would it be? (hypothetically, of course)

    • Like 1
  2. Completely disagree Mike, if the cost of saving the Syrian people (and a large number are angry that we have failed to act) is a few angry terrorists then so be it.

    It depends what you mean by saving. Any military intervention will lead to loss of life, and Mike has a point, if the west interferes then it only complicates things if we try and enforce our idea of government, and it then breeds hatred of the west when things go wrong.

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  3. I don't want to sound like such an unbelievable amateur, but I am. Can somebody explain to me how a company ends up in the FTSE100 is it if they have a certain total market value? If so which company has the cheapest individual shares?

  4. RE China the political class are already losing their power as they must do as the middle class expands.

    IMO China will fracture just like the old USSR did within the next 10-15 years. Within 40 years it's population will half and of those those left only 30% will be of working age.

    RE China demanding the SDR, again they have been saying this for last decade, so nothing really new and just a bit of opportunism.

    Anybody like to guess what will happen on Monday ?

    Totally agree with this. They have nowhere to go. If the middle class expands, they will slowly lose ability to make cheap goods, stemming their economy. If they do become democratic over a long period of time it will almost certainly mean unions and regulations again stemming their production. It's self limiting, and they will only stay a superpower as long as the people can put up with the standard of living.

    Also my prediction on Monday is for an initial rise in the markets, followed by stability. Assuming the ECB helps Italy out a bit that is.

  5. Interesting comment from the thread of the Craig Murray article:-

    It is an interesting comment, but do you not think the energy use will level off before then? I believe a lot of the increase is due to the increase in people who are 'middle class' in developing countries, and also from the growing population. Eventually the population will reach an equilibrium, and energy usage will peak.

  6. It's bad enough that the nation's jobless rate is 9.7%. But the real national employment rate is even higher than the U.S. Department of Labor's May figure shows.

    The official unemployment index, based on a monthly survey of sample households, counts only people who reported looking for work in the past four weeks. It doesn't account for part-time workers who want to work more hours but can't, given the tight job market. And it doesn't include those who have given up trying to find work.

    When the underemployed and the discouraged are added to the numbers, the unemployment rate rises to 16.6%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, a unit of the Labor Department, began tracking this alternative measure -- known as the U-6 for its department classification -- in 1995 after economists lobbied for a method comparable to the way Japan, Canada and Western Europe count their unemployed.

    Cont.

    http://articles.mone...yment-rate.aspx

    Still I very much doubt civil unrest because of a 10% unemployment rate + 5% of people who are not looking for work, or already have some work.

  7. FROM CNN's Jack Cafferty:

    For the first time maybe since the Vietnam War or certainly since the civil rights movement, there are some darkening storm clouds on the civility horizon. A growing number of voices are continuing to suggest that if this economy doesn't turn around, and people can't start feeling optimistic about their futures again, we could be headed for some ugly scenarios. A new CNN poll says 48 percent of Americans think the country is headed for another Great Depression in the next twelve months. That is a stunning number.

    Posted ImagePosted Image

    James Carville, who in 1992 told Bill Clinton, "It's the economy stupid," says the current economy is so bad, there is a heightened risk of civil unrest. And unless things start changing for the better, it's a distinct possibility.

    Our country is bankrupt and our government refuses to do anything about it. Unemployment is stuck above 9 percent. Millions of Americans are out of work, some for a number of years now. The value of peoples' homes is sinking below the break-even line. In the most recent jobs report, more than half of the private sector jobs that were added were at McDonald's.

    For young people coming out of the nation's colleges and universities, their families having invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in their education, the outlook is grim.

    Add in the early record breaking heat in the cities in the East and we might not even have to wait until 2012. It could become a long, hot, ugly summer.

    Here’s my question to you: What are the chances the U.S. economy could eventually trigger violence in our country?

    http://caffertyfile....in-our-country/

    Very interesting post. I personally think that suggesting civil unrest in the short term is premature. Unemployment rates at 9% are bad, but they could be significantly worse, and the fact that McDonalds hired a huge number of workers is irrelevant as long as they are jobs. I think the real problem facing America is that they are getting nothing done. The republicans and democrats are just fighting. They would be better completely backing one side than dithering over every issue. I don't know exactly whats happening with their economic situation and what the plans are to fix it, but i do know that if they can't agree on how to go about it they will get nowhere.

    I like to think the UK is in a different situation, in that we will recover economically and the debt will eventually decrease, but of course this relies on America no causing another crisis.

  8. Syria operating a scorched earth policy and seem to be murdering many of the people it meets on the way.

    Meanwhile in Libya we remain bogged down and since Gaddaffi has no where to go, effectively trapped by Western demands it's going to carry on dragging on. Rumours say it's costing the UK a million pounds a day.

    That figure doesn't really surprise me. The thing that does surprise me is that the whole Syria thing has gone largely un noticed in comparison with Libya. There seems to have been very little in terms of calls for UN action, for something that is on the same scale as he Libya situation.

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