Nick F

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-08-10 16:23:57 Valid: 10/08/2023 1700 to 11/08/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 10 AUG 2023 Click here for the full forecast

A look at the extreme weather over Europe in recent and coming days, including historic flooding in Slovenia, Storm Hans in Scandinavia, wildfires in southern Europe and a week of intense heat in Iberia. View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-08-06 07:41:41 Valid: 06/08/2023 0600 - 07/08/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 6TH AUG 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-08-05 07:24:18 Valid: 05/08/2023 0600 to 06/08/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SAT 05 AUG 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-08-03 21:49:08 Valid: 04/08/2023 0600 to 05/08/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 04 AUG 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-08-01 21:56:07 Valid: 02/08/2023 00z to 03/08/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 02AUG 2023 Click here for the full forecast

More like autumn than high summer in the week ahead, with a potentially deep low crossing southern Britain on Wednesday, bringing more rain and gales. Otherwise, showery and cool the rest of the week. View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-07-28 21:56:43 Valid: 29/07/2023 00z to 30/07/2023 00z THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SAT 29 JULY 2023 Click here for the full forecast

July, in contrast to June, has been changeable, wet, dull and often on the cool side for the UK. But will some of the heat over southern Europe come our way? Models suggest this is unlikely over the next few weeks, as an active jet stream off the Atlantic keeps the heat to the south. View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-07-25 07:04:47 Valid: 25/07/2023 0600 - 26/07/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUES 25 JULY 2023 Click here for the full forecast

As yet another Greek island popular with tourists, Corfu, sees a wildfire spread, we look at the situation here and across the rest of southern Europe and how long the dry and extremely hot conditions will last. View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-07-23 08:35:07 Valid: 23/07/2023 0900 - 24/07/2023 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 23 JULY 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-07-19 07:28:37 Valid: 19/07/2023 0800 to 20/07/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 19 JULY 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-07-17 06:22:11 Valid: 17/07/2023 0600 to 18/07/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - MON 17 JULY 2023 Click here for the full forecast

A look what's causing a heat dome to build over southern Europe and the level of heat expected over the next few days. View the full blog here

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-07-16 06:29:24 Valid: 16/07/2023 0600 to 17/07/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 16 JULY 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-07-15 07:03:33 Valid: 15/07/2023 0600 to 16/07/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SAT 15 JULY 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-07-14 08:02:44 Valid: 14/07/2023 0600 to 15/07/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 14 JULY 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-07-12 08:39:31 Valid: 12/07/2023 0900 to 13/07/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH -WEDS 12 JULY 2023 Click here for the full forecast

Does look nasty later, estofex have a level 3 for central- E France, SW Germany and large parts of Switzerland. European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG Violent supercell thunderstorms forecast to develop over central-E France later, where up to 3000 j/kg CAPE modelled, merging into a severe MCS, even derecho, tracking east over Switzerland & SW Germany too 8cm hail & 70mph+ gusts forecast by Estofex. Weirdly, a similar event happened over E France exactly 39 years ago on 11th July 1984 Warning out for Switzerland for 'very violent' storms

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-07-10 22:40:56 Valid: 11/07/2023 0600 to 12/07/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - TUES 11 JULY 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-07-10 09:34:00 Valid: 10/07/2023 1000 to 11/07/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - MON 10 JULY 2023 Click here for the full forecast

UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2023-07-09 08:55:55 Valid: 09/07/2023 0900 to 10/07/2023 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SUN 09 JULY 2023 Click here for the full forecast

Pretty active area of storms organising across east Wales, west Cheshire and now nudging into Wirral + Merseyside. I highlighted the Welsh Borders being an area in the afternoon for possible severe storm development in the Netweather Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued yesterday evening. A look at model wind profiles and in the upper levels there appears to be a shortwave trough and left exit of a strong jet streak arriving behind it moving up from the south, creating strong divergence aloft across Wales. Worth keeping an eye on this area which looks like growing upscale into an MCS, NW England could have some issues with this storm complex next few hours!

Something brewing over the Channel with IoW's name on it. Also can see the arc of Ac cas bringing spotty showers and storms across N and E England lifting N on the nose of higher theta-w plume streaming N 00z models bit over the place still, not really modelling storms mid E Channel too well, ahead of cold front rain, UKV probably closest and has a line move NE tbis morning, maybe a bit slow, EC perhaps similar but faster. NW England looks sweet spot this afternoon for surface based storms to develop