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Nick F

Senior forecaster
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Nick F last won the day on August 21 2015

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About Nick F

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    Specialising in severe weather

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    South Norwood, London (home), Hounslow/Heathrow (work)
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    Weather - particularly thunderstorms, growing plants, walking, cycling, cooking and good food, wine.

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  1. A look back at the last 7 days, that brought disruptive snow and a few named storms bringing severe gales. View the full blog here
  2. Depends what model you look at, EC doesn't look settled to see out January!
  3. Just up the road from me, but you have the advantage of being some 60m higher!
  4. Seems to be mostly big flakes of wet snow rather than sleet now in SE25, nice to see, but won't settle.
  5. Some flakes of wet snow mixed in with sleet falling here in SE25, I suppose it's better than expected, but pretty worthless with regards to settling!
  6. IMO we are unlikely to see cold or very cold for end of this month spurred by the MJO, as there is a lagged response after the MJO moves into more favourable 7/8/1 ... so could be looking at 10-15th Feb before we see the pattern change to become favourable for HLB, if current forecasts for the MJO to move at decent amplitude into these phases is correct. Of course, like you mention, there are other drivers that may work against MJO or may alter the pattern before any feedback from the MJO imprints on the upper flow patterns to make a change.
  7. Trend to dampen the earlier MLB signal in medium range to more of a Azores high extension into western mainland Europe on today’s runs, more especially the EC ops but also the 12z GEFS and EPS mean by day 10. 12z EPS clusters certainly looking more Atlantic trough dominated at day 10 Though the 18z GFS op appears to have gone back to higher pressure over the UK once again, when it looked like the 12z was trending away from this idea like EC. The brief Nly this Friday looking a bit more potent though with each subsequent run, 18z has -10C T850 into far N of Scotland.
  8. Some tentative pointers going forward emerging over last few days that we could have an increased chance of a cold wintry pattern as we head into February. Recent low GLAAM is forecast to increase back into the null phase and both EC monthly and recent EPS pointing to MJO moving at decent amplitude towards 7/8 into Feb. There are no signs of a SSW yet, though the stratospheric PV likely to take some knocks from wave no 1/2 activity - so could see displacement over coming weeks. So GLAAM improving, MJO looking good in Feb but will have to wait for it’s lagged effects, may get some help from stratosphere too through displacement. Stumbling block will be the strong feedback from La Niña on the troposphere pattern, which may interfere with MJO, let’s hope it doesn’t rely on a SSW, which is not looking likely atm, to over come La Niña and the troposphere can do all the work in the meantime!
  9. Looking at day 10 ensemble means, 00z EPS appears further south into mainland Europe with the Azores ridge extension in the means vs GEFS. Though the EC op more progressive with lower heights over UK than the ens mean. EPS GEFS EPS and GEFS mean/anomaly seem to retract the Atlantic trough days 11-15, EPS with a ridge in the means across N and W Europe up toward Scandi by day 15, GEFS making more of a trough in the means over Scandi and E Europe with the ridge retrogressing. Think the models may have a few wobbles / differences in medium-longer range ahead as they deal with anticyclonic wave-breaking over the Bering Sea and into the arctic ahead of Siberian trough, so we could see some changes afoot as we ahead toward the end of the Jan.
  10. 00z EC op much less enthused to build the MLB over UK, but will have to see where it sits with the ensemble guidance. After a few days of double figures early-mid week, models appear to be agreeing on turning colder towards the end of the week, as we get a little amplification over the Atlantic to allow a brief polar N to NWly flow next Friday. After that, models diverge on position and shape of the jet, GFS amplifies a trough over the NW Atlantic - which forces MLB into western Europe, whilst EC doesn't amplify near as much and keeps the upper flow flatter over the Atlantic.
  11. Just had a rumble of thunder from a heavy shower with hail just clearing here in south London. Some nice convective skies building up this afternoon. Fairly mild at the surface (9C) but cold mid-levels must be creating some steep lapse rates, even inland.
  12. There were signs in the ensembles yesterday, particularly apparent in the EPS spread from 21st, that the return of Atlantic zonality was becoming less certain beyond the coming weekend. It seems like models are/were defaulting to a La Nina / warm phase of MJO pattern and trying to flatten out and bring in Atlantic zonality. However, re-emergence of blocking to the NE seems be increasingly picked up by the models now, putting the buffers on the Atlantic conveyor somewhat. However, we need to cautious in not taking the 00z EC op too seriously until there is support from subsequent runs from both GFS and EC for a Scandi high to build and control our weather, as we have been lead down the garden path by the EC ops earlier this month with those Ely / NEly flows it showed. As @bluearmy indicates, not the support from the ensembles for now to have any confidence in the EC op ... for now. Nearer in time and only 41 hrs away and still differences in depth for the low crossing early Thurs, though GFS, UKMO and EC broadly agreeing on the low crossing northern England, UKMET fax looks deepest at 978mb.
  13. 12z UKMET-G further north and deeper (970mb) with the low vs GFS at t+60:
  14. Yes, with cold air advection around that low to the east slowly filling and drifting east this weekend, certainly entertains the idea of a 'slider' secondary low to bump into this cold air and create some snow on the cold side of the 'warm sector' The warm sector maybe further pushed south if the models are underestimating the effects of the slack cold flow around the low close to the east at the weekend, which will create a pseudo block as it were. As I and others mentioned earlier, the ens were entertaining the idea of the return of Atlantic mobility after the NW/Nly on Saturday may be put back or even stalled with some further disruption / sliders given the cold close to the east.
  15. GFS trending south with each subsequent run today so far, 06z Thurs chart started off on 00z centred 970mb somewhere near Glasgow, then 06z centered 976mb over Northumberland, now 12z centred 986mb over E Yorks. As many know, the shallower a low is modelled, the more southerly in track it’ll take. 00z 06z 12z