Nick F

Senior forecaster
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About Nick F

  • Rank
    Specialising in severe weather
  • Birthday 08/09/75

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    South Norwood, London (home), Hounslow/Heathrow (work)
  • Interests
    Weather - particularly thunderstorms, growing plants, walking, cycling, cooking and good food, wine.

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  1. Got an elevated storm just to the south of Heathrow where I am at work this evening with several white/pink forks of lightning seen, though fairly infrequent. Planes still landing despite the lightning close by...
  2. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2016-08-24 09:26:16 Valid: 24/08/2016 0600z to 25/08/2016 0600z CONVECTIVE/STORM FORECAST - WEDS 24TH-AUGUST-2016 Synopsis Amplifying upper trough to the west of the British Isles will continue to advect a plume of hot and humid air north across south and east England on Wednesday ahead of a slow-moving cold front lying between NE and SW England. Although the cold front is inactive for now, a wave will develop from the SW this evening and overnight, bringing an increased risk of thundery downpours across southern, central and eastern England tonight. … S and E ENGLAND, SE WALES, MIDLANDS … Hot and humid airmass across S and E England on Wednesday will be strongly capped by upper ridge on near continent, despite models indicating several 100 j/kg CAPE building this afternoon thanks to strong surface heating. However, slowly falling heights from the west and shortwave upper trough, visible on WV imagery, triggering storms across NW Iberia this morning, will move NE toward S England later. This increase in upper forcing and subsequent re-activation of cold front as it develops a wave moving NE will allow the development from this evening of isolated elevated thunderstorms pushing NE from the English Channel and central southern England up through the Midlands towards Yorks, Lincs and Norfolk. There is some uncertainty over eastern extent of these storms, with some isolated storms possible across SE England too later in the night. Some organisation into multicell clusters of storms is possible, given strengthening mid-upper SWly flow aloft and 40-50knts of deep layer shear. However, much of the rain falling from these elevated storms may evaporate before it reaches the ground, given very warm dry air at the surface, so rainfall will not pose much of an issue until perhaps later in the night across The Midlands and NE England as moister air and greater forcing moves in. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and perhaps isolated strong wind gusts will be the main hazard from these storms. Have not issued a categorical severe risk for storms overnight into Thursday for now, but may later today if storms become organised. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  3. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2016-08-24 09:26:16 Valid: 24/08/2016 0600z to 25/08/2016 0600z CONVECTIVE/STORM FORECAST - WEDS 24TH-AUGUST-2016 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  4. Have issued a storm forecast for Saturday, plenty of showers and the odd storm in the strong flow rotating around the unseasonably deep low crossing northern Britain tomorrow, can't rule out a storm almost anywhere, but central and northern areas most at risk where greatest forcing will be near the low: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=
  5. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2016-08-19 08:02:49 Valid: 20/08/2016 00z to 21/08/2016 06z CONVECTIVE/STORM FORECAST - SATURDAY 20TH AUGUST 2016 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  6. An unseasonably deep depression moving across the north on Saturday brings an early taste of autumn with wet and windy weather this weekend. But, there are increasing signs that summer heat will return next week. View the full blog here
  7. Blog looking at why we are only seeing brief one day bouts of heat this summer, despite some recent tabloid headlines of a 'Heatwave For Two Weeks' on the way. View the full blog here
  8. GFS and ECMF, over last few runs, have been hinting at a southerly plume of very warm, humid and potentially unstable air beginning early next week as an upper trough stalls to the west. Long way off though and subject to downgrades ...
  9. Blog look at the weather outlook for Europe over the next 7 days. Southern Europe typically hot throughout, northern Europe cooling down next week after warming up this weekend. View the full blog here
  10. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2016-08-04 08:38:39 Valid: 04/08/2016 0600z to 05/08/2016 0600z CONVECTIVE/STORM FORECAST - THURS 4TH-AUG-2016 Synopsis Upper and collocated surface low close to E Scotland will move NE toward Norway, while a shortwave upper trough to the W of Ireland moves SE into France embedded in strong cyclonic Wly veering NWly flow. Wly/NWly polar maritime flow will become unstable to surface heating across England, Wales and S Scotland on Thursday. … S SCOTLAND, N ENGLAND, E WALES, MIDLANDS and E ENGLAND … Cooling mid-level temperatures spreading from the NW and W in association with upper low over N Sea and shortwave trough glancing SW UK will create steep lapse rates as surface heating increases with sunny spells … yielding 200-500 j/kg CAPE. Showers already across the west this morning will spread/develop further east into the afternoon and become increasingly heavy with a risk of thunder as surface heating reaches its peak this afternoon. Vertical shear will be rather weak, so any storms will struggle to organise, with no severe weather anticipated as a result. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  11. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2016-08-04 08:38:39 Valid: 04/08/2016 0600z to 05/08/2016 0600z CONVECTIVE/STORM FORECAST - THURS 4TH-AUG-2016 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  12. Looks like it was lively in the early hours just north and west of the central lowlands of Scotland. A few more storms expected today embedded in convective bands swirling in across Scotland around a low moving in from the west later. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2016-08-03 08:41:04 Valid: 03/08/2016 0000z to 04/08/2016 0000z CONVECTIVE/STORM OUTLOOK - WEDS 03RD-AUGUST-2016 Synopsis Upper low and collocated surface low will drift east across Scotland on Wednesday, bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms will swirl around this low pressure system as it moves across Scotland. … SCOTLAND … Upper low and associated cool mid-levels will create steep lapse rates across Scotland, steepest toward Nern Scotland. This combined with large scale ascent of moist airmass from upper trough and forced ascent in areas along bands of strong positive vorticity swirling around low moving in from the west will allow convective bands of heavy rain, accompanied by thunder and lightning locally, to move east through the day. Vertical wind shear will be weak/unidirectional – so no severe weather is anticipated, though heavy downpours in the convective bands could produce an inch or more over a few hours so could lead to localised flooding. Issued by: Nick Finnis Tomorrow Sunshine and showers for many, some heavy with hail and thunder across Midlands, southern and eastern England
  13. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2016-08-03 08:41:04 Valid: 03/08/2016 0000z to 04/08/2016 0000z CONVECTIVE/STORM OUTLOOK - WEDS 03RD-AUGUST-2016 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  14. Wondering why UK summer 2016 seems to be so changeable, with any proper warmth or heat fleeting? Blame it on the jet stream, it just won't leave us alone. View the full blog here
  15. Risk of some isolated post frontal storms developing across Wales, Midlands and parts of southern and eastern England tomorrow, a fairly narrow zone of instability moving through ... Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2016-07-27 21:21:27 Valid: 28/07/2016 0600z to 29/07/2016 0600z CONVECTIVE/STORM FORECAST - THURS 28TH-JULY-2016 Synopsis Upper low persists to the north of the UK centred over the Norwegian Sea, driving a deeply cyclonic westerly flow across the UK. A shortwave trough and associated jet max, originating from far NW Atlantic/NE Canada will moves east across Nern UK on Thursday beneath the upper low to the north. A surface low will cross N. Ireland late morning, then across N England in the afternoon/early evening. Attendant warm sector will move across England and Wales late morning and afternoon, cold front clearing E England by early evening. … WALES, MIDLANDS, S and E ENGLAND … A shallow layer of quite moist air will persist across the above areas into the afternoon during peak heating post cold front clearance. This warmed moist surface layer combined with steepening lapse rates as shortwave trough glances as it moves across Nern UK will yield a narrow pool of around 300-700 j/kg CAPE that will follow near/ behind the cold front clearing east. This unstable zone should support the development of isolated or scattered thunderstorms for a time across the above areas. Strong westerly jet streak aloft and veering winds as low moves through is indicated to yield 30-40 knots of Deep layer shear and 15-20 knots of low-level shear ... which is sufficient for organisation of any storms that develop. So there is a small risk of hail, strong wind gusts and torrential rain leading to flash-flooding. Low LCL/cloud base and locally enhanced low-level shear means funnel clouds or even brief/weak tornadoes can’t be ruled out too. However, with what looks like an isolated/uncertain risk of strong thunderstorms – have refrained from issuing severe probabilities. Issued by: Nick Finnis