Nick F

Senior forecaster
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Nick F last won the day on August 21 2015

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About Nick F

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    Specialising in severe weather
  • Birthday 08/09/75

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    South Norwood, London (home), Hounslow/Heathrow (work)
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    Weather - particularly thunderstorms, growing plants, walking, cycling, cooking and good food, wine.

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  1. Spring on Monday, with mid-teens over Midlands and E England ... to winter next Friday, as a N/NWly flow brings temps struggling to get higher than low single figures Midlands north. 00z EPS z500 mean indicating support for the brief N-NWly end of next week, as upper flow amplification moves out of NE N America downstream over N Atlantic. Unfortunately, good agreement, the flow switches back to SWly thereafter, as a trough digs SE from N Canada out into the NW Atlantic
  2. There is typically a lag time of around 10 days for an MJO-induced Rossby Wave to reach high latitudes (Hoskins, B. J., and D. J. Karoly, 1981: The steady-state linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1175–1196) - phases 8 more favourable than 7 for UK so like you say around the 25th, but not because of the subsequent return to phase 7 shown on the GEFS, but from the current phase movement through 8 and 1. The GFS forecast for it move back into phase 7 around the 24th may not have an impact until into early March. For example, MJO went into phase 7 on the 9th Feb, 10 days on from then we can compare the phase 7 composite for amplitude >1 with the forecast GEFS z500 mean for the 19th Feb, not too dissimilar upstream other then the lower heights downstream over Scandi Feb MJO composite for phase 8 with amplitude >1 (below), 10 days from current phase movement into 8, takes us to around the 25th, IMO movement from 8 into 1 more favourable than 7 into 8, but obviously MJO propagation in 8/1 and the resultant increased amplification of Rossby waves into higher latitudes does not automatically = blocked/cold/snow for us unfortunately, as more mesoscale changes in the atmosphere can ruin prospects. However, we do also have the wave number 1 warming helping to displace the sPV over toward NW Russia / northern Scandi after its current return to northern Greenland / N Pole area. This appears to have the immediate response of increasing the 500mb zonal flow over far N Atlantic into Scandi, but with time height rises / amplification transferring east over N America under a stratospheric high developing and moving east towards Greenland may allow height rises over N Atlantic and perhaps into Greenland to end the month. Of course, I could be completely wrong, the atmospheric patterns don't always follow the historic composites of oscillations and/or there is disconnect between the trop and the strat. But I think there is some positive indications from both the MJO movements and next sPV displacement to give tentative signs of winter returning at the end of this month and into early March. Not ideal, as snow tends not hang around as long as Dec-Jan, but don't be fooled by the warm up and early Spring feel over the next 10 days or so.
  3. Sunshine at last, au revoir cold, grey damp squib

    1. Nouska


      Enjoy your sun, Nick. I thought spring was springing this week, I've had sustained tropical storm force winds for the last 24 hours!

  4. Another winter storm about to hit New England, from summer heat back to winter chill in the southern U.S. High Plains and the Australian heatwave. View the full blog here
  5. Both GFS and ECM displace the sPV back to NW Russia/northern Scandi by around T+120, currently its centred over N Greenland/ N Pole. If you remember last time this happened in late January we saw the zonal flow in the troposphere strengthen over the Atlantic, with the NWP churning out zonal charts out to day 15, something similar at the moment it looks too. But IMO we could eventually see mid-Atlantic ridging building north as the core of the trop PV moves over Svalbard and Norway while more amplification works downstream, certainly at day 10 the flow is looking more amplified over N America on 12z EC.
  6. Moderate fall of big fat fluffy flakes in SE25, but struggling to settle, pffft
  7. Quite an impressive area of precip moving into E Anglia and earmarked for Thames Estuary, hopefully it doesn't turn too marginal when it arrives in London area - dew points holding out for now.
  8. Chucking it down with a fine snow here near Croydon, settling on cars and fences and now trying to on grass but not roads/pavement. Not sure we will even reach a Kentimetre though.
  9. Yes, coldies better not look at the 18z GFS for next weekend, really is a horror show with a SWly flow sourced all the way the other side of the Azores with +10C T850s above the Sunday. Though it does redeem itself in FI. Is rather at odds with the 12z ECM for noon on Sunday 19th, which has an prominent upper low still over Iberia. 12z EC for 12z Sun 19/02 18z GFS for 12z Sun 19/02 On the 12z EC and GFS operational runs we saw differences between the two models on how quickly they exit the upper low over NE N America and also trough disruption SE towards Iberia in the 8-10 day range So certainly the models are not unanimous with the upper flow pattern in a weeks time over the Atlantic or even with to the north - with regards to how far down the low heights extend from the trop PV over the arctic.
  10. Getting a measly dusting now on cars and grass here in sarf London, keeps up might even be enough to make a snowball in the morning.
  11. If you look at the high res Arpege model, it pulls the precip along the occlusion/trough over Benelux over the SE tonight/Saturday morning
  12. Look at the Dutch radar, band of precip looks healthy which is contrary to the MetO / Netweather radar
  13. Can see the arc of precip pushing NW out of Benelux this evening on the radar link below: The fax chart shows the occluded front bringing the arc of sleet and snow towards SE UK this evening Some light flurries of snow on and off all afternoon and evening here in Croydon, never getting heavy enough to settle.
  14. A sneaky cold shot from the arctic for northern areas next Friday on 12z GFS, but high chance it would get shut off by the low crossing the Atlantic to the west before it reaches Scotland, 12z UKMO looks less inclined to develop a cold N or NWly over the UK. I guess all will depend on how quickly those winter storms over NE N America move out into the Atlantic, together with a strengthening jet streak. Before then, the Atlantic is pretty weak.