Jump to content

Nick F

Senior forecaster
  • Content count

    6,983
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    14

Nick F last won the day on August 21 2015

Nick F had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

11,441 Exceptional

6 Followers

About Nick F

  • Rank
    Specialising in severe weather

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    South Norwood, London (home), Hounslow/Heathrow (work)
  • Interests
    Weather - particularly thunderstorms, growing plants, walking, cycling, cooking and good food, wine.

Recent Profile Visitors

28,038 profile views
  1. Maybe Storm Brian, though calling an Atlantic depression Hurricane Maria, though obviously incorrect and liable to confuse joe public if the storm is named by the Met Office, will be greater 'click-fodder' for the media.
  2. Morning all, don't think I've posted in here for a while, but will do when things look interesting weather-wise. Following on from Knocker's post above, running MSLP loops of the N Atlantic for the 00z GFS and ECM from later this week until early next week you can see Hurricane Maria (west) and Hurricane Lee (east) joining forces over mid-N Atlantic, by which time ex-tropical over much cooler waters to the north, before running NE as a deep depression towards the British Isles and arriving early next week. 00z GFS 00z ECMWF Ensemble mean MSLP seems to be pointing to disturbed Atlantic affecting the UK from later this week.
  3. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2017-09-18 09:08:33 Valid: Mon 18th Sept 6am to Tues 19th Sept Day 1 Convective / Storm Forecast Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  4. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2017-09-17 09:22:46 Valid: Sun 17th Sept 6am to Mon 18th Sept 6am Day 1 Convective / Storm Forecast Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  5. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2017-09-15 21:42:22 Valid: Sat 16th Sept 6am to Sun 17th Sept 6am Day 1 Convective / Storm Forecast Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  6. Another good day for convective cloudscape and rainbows in the clean polar flow, my convective / storm forecast: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=
  7. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2017-09-15 08:13:08 Valid: Fri 15th Sept 6am to Sat 16th Sept 6am Day 1 Convective / Storm Forecast Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  8. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2017-09-14 10:18:06 Valid: Thurs 14th Sept 6am to Fri 15th Sept 6am Day 1 Convective / Storm Forecast Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  9. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-09-13 09:13:43 Valid: Weds 13 Sept 6am to Thurs 14 Sept 6am Day 1 Convective / Storm Forecast Synopsis In wake of Storm Aileen - which will move across Denmark early afternoon, a potent upper shortwave trough in strong belt of upper westerlies will swing in across western Britain today, enhancing the instability of cool and unstable westerly flow across the UK. Much of Scotland will see cloud and general rainfall, limiting convective potential. ... IRELAND, N. IRELAND, ENGLAND and WALES ... Increasingly cold mid-levels will spread in from the west with arrival of mid-level cold pool/shortwave trough ... steepening lapse rates and supporting heavy showers and increasingly scattered thunderstorms, as surface heating in sunny spells allows convective cloud to attain more height for charge separation. Heavy showers intially across western areas this morning, fuelled by seasonally warm SSTs and steeper lapse rates before becoming more widespread further east as surface heating and increasing lapse rates destabilise atmosphere. Thunderstorms most likely across Ireland, Wales, N and W England ... though anywhere across England may see storms this afternoon. Vertical deep-layer shear will be generally weak away from S England (underneath strong jet stream) and CAPE modest in cool Pm flow (a few 100 j/kg), so generally showers/storms will tend not to organise or be prolonged to bring a severe threat. Heavier showers and t-storms may bring hail and enhanced strong wind gusts. Across S England/S Wales lines of showers/storms may organise and align into linear clusters with westerly streamlines to bring a risk of localised flooding and perhaps isolated strong, maybe damaging, convective wind gusts - particularly across SW England and S Wales - where have delineated a MARGINAL risk.
  10. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2017-09-13 09:13:43 Valid: Weds 13 Sept 6am to Thurs 14 Sept 6am Day 1 Convective / Storm Forecast Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  11. Suddenly getting rather blowy in south London now, replacing old fence panels in the garden that have historically come loose in high winds was on my list to do this month, didn't expect gales to arrive so early in autumn, so been caught out. Can here the fences creaking ready to blow out already, hammer out in the morning I think ... gust of 69mph at the Needles tops so far, though a very exposed site in the English Channel.
  12. Should be some nice convective cloudscapes today in the cool and clear Pm flow, cameras at the ready. Netweather convective / storm forecast: Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-09-11 08:11:51 Valid: Mon 11th Sept 6am to Tues 12th Sept 6am Day 1 Convective / Storm Forecast Synopsis Upper low and collocated surface low close to NE Scotland will move out into the N Sea toward Norway today. An unstable, cool and showery Polar maritime NWly flow covers the UK. ... ENGLAND and WALES ... Pool of cold mid-level temperatures associated with upper low will cover the UK, creating steep low to mid-level lapse rates and supporting numerous scattered showers today across the UK. Surface heating will allow convective clouds to attain sufficient height for thunderstorms to develop later this morning and through the afternoon ... these mostly across England and Wales - where temperatures, moisture and forcing will be greatest. Thunderstorms likely most numerous across central, northern England and eastern England. Vertical shear will be weak, so showers/storms will be disorganised short-lived pulse-type convection. Any showers/storms may produce hail, localised minor surface water flooding and strong wind gusts. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  13. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2017-09-11 08:11:51 Valid: Mon 11th Sept 6am to Tues 12th Sept 6am Day 1 Convective / Storm Forecast Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
×