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Nick F

Senior forecaster
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Nick F last won the day on August 9

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About Nick F

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    Specialising in severe weather

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    South Norwood, London (home), Hounslow/Heathrow (work)
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    Weather - particularly thunderstorms, growing plants, walking, cycling, cooking and good food, wine.

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  1. Some marked upper pattern differences between 12z EC and GFS operationals this evening in the 8-10 day range, GFS has a ridge in the Iceland area whilst EC has troughing in this area, with a strong ridge over Scandi. GFS over last few runs sending the jet further south into Europe compared to the EC in the medium range Best treating the operationals past day 6-7 with a pinch of salt, even for the more reliable upper patterns, ensemble means do not really offer too much clue either, GEFS mean looks further south with troughing , jet at day T+216 compared to EPS mean 12z GEFS mean 12z EPS mean
  2. Seems to be a repeating theme from GFS over recent runs for the jet stream on the operationals and GEFS mean to shift south of the UK and stay south from next week. This does mean we will have a large 'limpet' parent low wallowing around to our west for much of next week, because the jet stream is displaced to the south of the low and so does not move it on. But because of this, the low does fill and drift SE over/near the UK later next week. The 06z GEFS mean jet shows the shift south in position next week, continued by the 12z GFS op: This south shift in the jet does open the potential for ridging to the northwest in Iceland area, once the limpet low fills and drifts SE, this ridging could be expanded to the west too, if amplification works downstream from N America. Because of the southerly tracking jet, the UK won't be under the Atlantic's developmental area for depressions, so we won't be bombarded by lows, rather a slow-moving low to the west eventually filling.
  3. First time this season I've seen the GEFS members mean dip into zonal wind reversal territory on Hannah Attard's plots, so over half of the 21 members going for a major SSW.
  4. I have wondered sometimes if Cohen's tweets are a bit too sensationalist and not erring on caution enough. The amount of times he promises good things form the stratosphere re: warming and snow extent throughout every winter. As much as I appreciate he knows his stuff and is an expert in his field, he is obviously cold ramper, though not to the extreme of Joe B.
  5. A few GEFS members really going for a major SSW now later this month 0.5 GFS forecast going for the 0 line
  6. Certainly an upgrade for deeper cold on the 00z ECM, with -9C T850s into E Anglia early Friday: The only problem is, like yesterday's 12z EC, that there is scant precipitation on Friday, thanks to trough disruption too far W/SW: ... until Saturday, when we have a surge from the Atlantic, by which time it looks wrong side of marginal (well over 0C T850s) when the precip arrives, away from highest ground in the north Still, could be changes to the angle of approach to Saturday's frontal system, move WNW-ESE (negative) orientated and we may just squeeze enough cold air ahead of the front to bring a brief spell of preceding snow. Frontal disruption before then still not resolved Thurs/Friday, GFS shows this further east, but across the west. Still a lot of uncertainty Thursday onwards, but certainly models upgrading the cold late week, with the block over Scandi having more influence with ridge and cold and dry continental air further west across us.
  7. Cold backed west on the 12z EC later in the week but the trough disruption has too, which means cold and dry for most on Thursday and Friday, until a big surge by the Atlantic- which brings wind and rain, perhaps preceded briefly by snow, NE across all parts on Saturday. So although a colder run, would prefer to see trough disruption further NE later in the week, otherwise dry Thursday/Friday then a little snow for some but rain for most on Saturday as milder air floods NE. still a way off though, so subject to change...
  8. I don't think anyone is hoping the block will retrogress, there is no question I think in many peoples' minds that the Atlantic will win out by the weekend, but many are seeing if we can get a bit of snow out of the transition back to milder Atlantic, as there will be cold air lurking across the east which may set-up a marginal snow event as Atlantic fronts try and push in from the west. If many don't see any snow, then what will be will be, but it's worth seeing if it may occur rather then dismissing outright.
  9. Although the 00z EC op synoptic profile has improved for later in the week, with cold continental air back a little further west, the front moving in from the west for Thursday/early Friday stalls and weakens across the west, so not the snow event across northern and eastern areas it was showing, however, it does then bring another frontal system with more oomph on Saturday, but this a snow preceding a quick transition to rain as milder air sweeps in from the southwest. Still a lot of detail to be resolved from mid-week with the progress of the Atlantic fronts across the UK against the Scandi block and cold air flowing west, models differ on how to handle it. Be interesting to see which models handle it best.
  10. I don't think there is too much doubt that Atlantic mobility with milder and unsettled weather will eventually win out by next weekend and probably lasting through to at least the weekend before Christmas. However, a brief battle looks increasingly possible later this coming new week, involving some marginal snowfall potential, as Atlantic frontal systems interact with colder and drier continental air trying to spread west against these slowing fronts. GFS op and para, so far, has not been keen to show snow away from high ground in the north. However, next Thursday still a long, long way off in forecasting such detail as if and where it may snow in such a marginal set-up, we may not have a better idea until 24-36hr out. So not worth fretting over for a few days, but the potential is there given EC has been keen on it for a 3 or so runs now.
  11. Looking ahead at the rest of December, will there be any festive cold and snowy weather on the way? View the full blog here
  12. Plenty of Atlantic trough disruption SE into mainland Europe on the 18z GFS which follows the 12z EC, just when we had given up hope of the cold to the east having any say. Always fun to have these twists in the models when it seemed, for a time, we would be starring down the barrel of a week or two Atlantic mobility. The trough disruption next Thursday may improve further in favour of stalling frontal zones, given that the deep low to our NW is a long way off undergoing cyclogenesis and may not deepen as much, with less WAA towards UK and more disruption as a result. It is still just a wave leaving the U.S.Eastern Seaboard early Monday - same feature bringing a winter storm to southern Plains and southeast of USA this weekend.
  13. The change back towards the block over Scandi extending further west and Atlantic trough disrupting due to the jet stream positioning further south highlights how despite some success in predicting broadscale patterns in the longer range based on MJO phases in combination with other drivers, models can often struggle with the finer mesoscale detail of the positions of low and highs beyond day 5, which is important for our small chunk of NW Europe. 12z EC indicating snow event this time next week across the north and east, as the Atlantic frontal system bumps into colder air moving over the North Sea from the southeast. However, 7 days is a long way off to forecast such detail, so subject to change and often we won't know until 36, sometimes 24 hours out where it may snow in such knife-edge marginal situations. Given the Met Office in the their 6 days+ forecast mentioned "Through the remainder of this period there is a fine balance between colder air to the east and milder air in the west" - highlights that the battleground between milder Atlantic air and cold continental may end up closer than we previously thought. The Atlantic may eventually break through and increase mobility, but next week increasingly likely to feature slowing / stalling fronts as they head east, bringing a threat of snow in places as the rain bumps into cold air from the east.
  14. Bit of a line squall passing through here in south London atm, brief intense spell of rain within general rain this morning
  15. Not often one sees such a marked positive height anomaly over Greenland and Iceland at week 5 but more strikingly at week 6 in EC weeklies, normally the anomalies are muted at that range. EC longer range smelling the SSW coffee?