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Nick F

Senior forecaster
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Nick F last won the day on August 9

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About Nick F

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    Specialising in severe weather

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    Male
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    South Norwood, London (home), Hounslow/Heathrow (work)
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    Weather - particularly thunderstorms, growing plants, walking, cycling, cooking and good food, wine.

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  1. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-08-16 09:21:48 Valid: 16/08/2018 00z - 17/08/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THURSDAY 16TH AUG 2018 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  2. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-08-13 05:48:04 Valid: 13/08/2018 00z to 14/08/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - MONDAY 13TH AUG 2018 Synopsis Upper trough towards the eastern side of the UK this morning will drift away eastwards into the Low Countries this afternoon, weak ridge building across the west, shallow surface low situated over south North Sea at noon, with associated wrap around occlusion close to east coast of England, the low deepening a little as it moves east across Denmark by midnight. Heavy showers and a few thunderstorms likely to develop across eastern England this afternoon. ... E ENGLAND ... Models indicate surface breeze convergence / moisture pooling not far inland of east coast of England this afternoon, steeper lapse rates towards the east closer to colder air aloft of exiting upper trough and scope for some surface heating will generate sufficient instability combined with lift of convergence to support heavy showers and increasingly into the afternoon a few thunderstorms too. Steering flow towards eastern UK will be fairly slack, so main threat will be slow-moving showers/storms bringing a risk of localised flooding. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  3. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-08-13 05:48:04 Valid: 13/08/2018 00z to 14/08/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - MONDAY 13TH AUG 2018 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  4. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-08-11 23:47:55 Valid: 12/08/2018 00z to 13/108/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SUNDAY 12TH AUG 2018 Synopsis Upper trough embedded within in westerly jet will move east from Ireland across the UK on Sunday. A waving cold front will slowly progress east on forward side of this trough, parallel to a belt of modest SWly flow aloft. Pulses of heavy and perhaps thundery rain moving NE along front will shift east from Wales and SW England towards eastern England through the day, cold front not reaching eastern England until late evening, in wake of front heavy showers and thunderstorms may develop across the west. … SW ENGLAND, WALES, NW ENGLAND and S SCOTLAND … Pulses of heavy rain moving NE across SW England, Wales and NW England during the morning, ahead/along waving cold front moving in from the west, may be driven by pockets of strong enough mid-level convection to produce isolated lightning strikes at times. There is a risk of localised flooding from the heavier convectively-driven downpours. The heavier convective burst of rainfall and isolated lightning risk will ease for through the morning, as lead impulse moving NE enhancing convection weakens and the surface front moves away eastwards. However, post-frontal airmass will be characterised by steep lapse rates as cold mid-levels spread aloft with advancement east of upper trough, surface heating will destabilise moist airmass which, combined with forecast N-S surface breeze convergence inland of above areas creating lift, will support heavy showers and some thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, focused near convergence, though may develop with orographic lift elsewhere too. Vertical shear will be weak (0-6km 20-30 knts), so main risk will be localised flooding where storms train along convergence, along with hail too. … CENTRAL S + SE ENGLAND … Further east, cold front will arrive from the west into the afternoon, with potential for another impulse in the upper flow moving NE to generate another wave or two along the frontal boundary, which will serve to enhance lift and generate pulses of heavy convective rainfall with perhaps some embedded thundery activity, again, main risk will be localised flooding.
  5. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-08-11 23:47:55 Valid: 12/08/2018 00z to 13/108/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SUNDAY 12TH AUG 2018 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  6. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-08-11 23:47:55 Valid: 12/08/2018 00z to 13/108/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SUNDAY 12TH AUG 2018 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  7. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-08-11 09:32:51 Valid: 11/08/2018 00z - 12/08/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 11TH AUG 2018 Synopsis An upper trough in the broad cyclonic westerly upper flow over N Atlantic will approach the west of Ireland today, a surface depression containing the remnants of ex-tropical storm Debby will also approach to west of Ireland while filling. A warm front will lift N across England and Wales today, with warm and moist southwesterly flow becoming unstable ahead or along cold front then following in from the west. ... SW ENGLAND, WALES, IRELAND, IRISH SEA ... Cloud and patchy rain will spread NE through the day across Wales and western England in warm sector, then through this evening a cold front will move in from the west. differential thermal advection as cooler air moves in aloft ahead of surface cold front and lift from the front itself will cause the warm and moist conveyor to destabilse mostly in the mid-levels upwards - supporting increasing elevated convection across the above areas this evening and into the night - with potential to bring isolated thunder and lightning and heavy downpours leading to localised flooding.
  8. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-08-11 09:32:51 Valid: 11/08/2018 00z - 12/08/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 11TH AUG 2018 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  9. Cool and changeable for many over the weekend, with some rain for most. Next week becoming mostly dry and warmer in the south, but not heatwave returning. View the full blog here
  10. Nice crisp line of convection seen looking north from here near Croydon associated with line of storms over N London Pano of the line of storms that moved through London area earlier looking north and west from local park view point before they came through.
  11. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-08-10 07:33:55 Valid: 10/08/2018 00z - 11/08/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRIDAY 10TH AUG 2018 Synopsis Upper trough extends south across NE Atlantic and British Isles on Friday morning and will edge east to be across the North Sea / Norwegian Sea by late evening, further east upper ridge extends NE from SE Europe into western Russia. A cyclonic westerly surface flow will cover the UK, unstable to surface heating. ... ENGLAND, WALES and S SCOTLAND ... An unseasonably deep and cold upper trough will cross the UK today, with 500mb temps as low as -25C, these cold mid-level temperatures atop a moist surface airmass heated in sunny spells will create steep lapse rates. Instability will be greatest this morning across the west before subsiding here into the afternoon when CAPE increases across central, southern and eastern England this afternoon, 400-800 j/kg range during peak heating. The passage of the upper trough will create large scale ascent beneath and ahead of it, before heights rise across the west in its wake this afternoon. So heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely from the word go this morning across southern Scotland, NW England, Wales and SW England, before heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms develop further east across England through the day, as the upper trough advances east and surface heating increases instability. W/NWly jet streak punching east across southern Britain will yield 0-6km shear values in the range of 40 knots - the strong upper winds and modest vertical shear will favour organisation of showers and storms into line segments across south Wales and SW England this morning, then central-S and SE England along with East Anglia into the afternoon. Mid-level dry air intrusion accompanying the jet streak will enhance convection, with some strong storms possible, the dry air also increasing potential for strong winds aloft to lower to the surface - bringing the risk of isolated strong wind gusts. Also hail may accompany storms, with potential for hail stones of 1-2cm in stronger cells, there is also potential for localised flash-flooding. Some backing of surface winds is noted on recent obs across SW England before winds switch westerly, indicative of trough passage, which suggests some strong low-level shear potential which may enhance the risk of stronger updrafts rotating into storms, so can't rule out a brief tornado too across S England. Further north across England and southern Scotland - showers and storms will become increasingly confined towards the east in the afternoon, as heights rise to the west and convection weakens across Wales, N. Ireland and NW England, any showers and storms towards the east will still have the potential to produce hail, gusty winds and localised flooding. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective
  12. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-08-10 07:33:55 Valid: 10/08/2018 00z - 11/08/2018 00z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRIDAY 10TH AUG 2018 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  13. Lapse rates became increasingly steep this afternoon to west of the rain/cloud shield affecting much of SE/EA today, where sunnier skies bringing surface heating beneath mid-level temperatures dropping to a cold (for time of year) -20C or below at 500mb, this combined with lift from a shortwave trough moving east, as seen on the fax charts below, probably provided the instability and lift to produce the storms Fax for 6pm this evening 500mb temps for 18z this evening Lapse rates Even 18z GFS not really picking up the instability inland across the SE though!
  14. Some lovely atmospheric photos - thanks for sharing!
  15. ECMWF highlight CAPE across SE England quite well this evening on the 00z run, a few 100 j/kg at least, though appreciate not everyone has access
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