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Nick F

Senior forecaster
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Nick F last won the day on January 24

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About Nick F

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    Specialising in severe weather

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    Male
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    South Norwood, London (home), Hounslow/Heathrow (work)
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    Weather - particularly thunderstorms, growing plants, walking, cycling, cooking and good food, wine.

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  1. Some flash-flooding in the Chorley area of Manchester recently, must have been quite intense, as the radar returns suggest.
  2. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-06-15 21:43:16 Valid: 16/06/2018 0600 - 17/06/2018 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 16TH JUNE 2018 Synopsis A fairly potent upper low will pass east across Scotland during Saturday embedded in broadscale strong westerly upper flow dominating the far north Atlantic and northern Europe. At the surface, an occluded front will traverse the UK in the morning and early afternoon, ahead of surface low moving east and filling as it approaches NW Scotand. An airmass unstable to surface heating will follow the occluded front. ... N. IRELAND, CENTRAL & SOUTHERN SCOTLAND, N and E ENGLAND ... Upper trough crossing northern Britain will create steep lapse rates, surface heating in any sunny spells, following frontal cloud band with showery rain clearing east, will yield a few 100 j/kg CAPE, which will support development of scattered heavy showers and a few or more thunderstorms. 30-40 knots of deep layer shear could allow some organisation in multicell clusters which maybe capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts, hail and torrential rainfall leading to localised flooding. Backing of low-level winds with approach of surface trough from the west may induce enough low-level shear to perhaps support a few funnel clouds with stronger updrafts, a brief weak tornado can't be ruled out. The risk of thunderstorms will quickly fade after dark, as forcing for ascent clears east and surface heating wanes. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  3. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-06-15 21:43:16 Valid: 16/06/2018 0600 - 17/06/2018 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 16TH JUNE 2018 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  4. A look at Storm Hector, which will bring gales and risk of disruption to northern Britain. View the full blog here
  5. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-06-11 07:53:11 Valid: 11/06/2018 00Z - 12/06/2018 00Z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - MON 11TH JUNE 2018 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  6. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-06-08 22:12:29 Valid: 09/06/2018 00z to 10/06/2018 06z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - SAT 9TH JUNE 2018 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  7. We are stuck in a rut of little change for now, but the jet stream sinks and strengthens towards UK next week, bringing a change. View the full blog here
  8. We are stuck in a rut of little change for now, but the jet stream sinks and strengthens towards UK next week, bringing a change. View the full blog here
  9. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-06-07 22:31:08 Valid: 08/06/2018 00z to 09/06/2018 06z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRI 8TH JUNE 2018 Synopsis An upper ridge extends NE between Iceland and Scotland with a small upper low close to Scotland and a larger upper low close to NW Iberia during Friday. At the surface, a generally slack pressure gradient will exist, with shallow areas of low pressure over much of Europe, a warm and humid airmass over the UK will be most unstable across NW Britain - where afternoon heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop. ... IRELAND, N. IRELAND and W SCOTLAND ... Like today, local sea breeze convergence and/or upslope onshore flow will create lift of moist air into cool air aloft embedded in weak upper low - supporting the development of afternoon / early evening heavy showers and thunderstorms. This activity will be fairly localised, but with slow-movement or training of shower/storms along convergence / upslope lift zones and source of warm/moist air (dew points of low to mid teens) - there is potential for some localised flash-flooding - particularly in hillier areas. ... SW ENGLAND ... Local sea breeze convergence inland may trigger a few isolated heavy showers with thunder across Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and perhaps Dorset through the afternoon ... there is a risk of localised flooding with any of these showers/storms. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  10. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-06-07 22:31:08 Valid: 08/06/2018 00z to 09/06/2018 06z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRI 8TH JUNE 2018 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  11. Quite electrically active the cells just off coast of Romney Marsh / S Kent, skies must be lighting up nicely there
  12. After a holiday abroad during the half-term, when I was unable to do forecasts for this very active period of storms, I am back home to forecast a risk of some storms from tonight, after a brief lull since last week. Risk of storms looks to continue in the south on Friday and through the weekend too, though not looking to be the same calibre as last week, for now. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-06-06 15:00:13 Valid: 06/06/2018 2200 - 07/06/2018 2359 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THURS 7TH MAY 2018 Synopsis A slack flow pattern will persist across NW Europe over the next 36 hours or so, an upper trough over the mid-N Atlantic will disrupt into a cut-off upper low which will drift SE towards western Iberia by Friday as heights rebuild to the north. At the surface, high pressure will continue to dominate northern UK, while lower pressure on the near continent and warm/moist air advection from the south contribute to increasing instability and risk of thunderstorms across southern UK from tonight and through Thursday. ... S ENGLAND, S WALES, MIDLANDS and E ANGLIA ... Later this evening and overnight, models indicate an increase in mid-level instability spreading NW out of France as a plume of warm / moist air spreads north atop of a cooler, drier and more stable NEly surface flow. This isentropic lift of the warm conveyor will create steepening lapse rates and likely support scattered elevated heavy showers and a few isolated thunderstorms spreading in across the far S and SE of England overnight into Thursday morning, before activity eases north and wanes. Local downpours could bring some localised surface water flooding. Following the weakening/easing north of morning mid-level instability ... increasing low-level moisture combined with surface heating and surface breeze convergence inland over S England and maybe S Wales may support the development of isolated thunderstorms, some of these storms may produce hail and slow-moving torrential downpours leading to localised flooding. Limiting factor to a more widespread and organised risk of storms will be weak flow aloft and neutral-weakly positive heights. ... W SCOTLAND, NW IRELAND and N IRELAND ... Models indicate that, despite general weak heights / ridging, sea breeze fronts moving inland and orographic lift may provide enough pooling of moisture and lift combined with surface heating to produce isolated afternoon thunderstorm development that may continue into the evening before fading as diurnal heating wanes. Slow-moving nature of these storms may bring a risk of localised flooding.
  13. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-06-06 15:00:13 Valid: 06/06/2018 2200 - 07/06/2018 2359 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THURS 7TH MAY 2018 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  14. Doesn't look like much lightning activity last night as the rain spread across southern areas, not too hopeful for today either, though may get some isolated areas of storms where we see convergence and some surface heating north of the M4 across S Midlands down to SE England perhaps. Storm forecast: Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-05-24 05:59:58 Valid: 24/05/2018 0600 - 25/05/2018 UK & IRELAND THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - 24 HR OUTLOOK Synopsis An upper level high will be centred over Scandinavia during Thursday, further southwest, an upper low will drift NW out of N France. At the surface: areas of high pressure will be centred to the W of Ireland and also over Scandinavia, slack areas of low pressure circulation over western and central mainland Europe, an unstable easterly flow will cover southern UK, supporting sporadic/isolated storms. ... ENGLAND and WALES ... A great deal of uncertainty exists over possible areas of storm development today - due to areas of mostly dynamic rainfall with some embdeded convective elements pushing west ... as a shortwave moving west cresting upper low over NW France creates ascent of a warm/moist plume spreading out of the near continent. Some isolated lightning may occur with embeded convective activity in heavier pulses of rain spreading west/northwest across southern England and Wales through the morning and into the afternoon, as overnight - some of the convective rainfall may produce further incidences of localised flooding in places. There is likely to be clearance of cloud and rain from the E/SE across parts of SE England, E Anglia, Midlands and southern N England ... here increasingly moist surface airmass with dew points rising into the mid-teens celsius combined with surface heating in any sunshine will yield several 100 j/kg CAPE in the afternoon ... however, airmass could remain mostly capped, but where surface convergence can overcome the cap ... which looks mostly likely from Welsh Borders across W/S Midlands and towards SE England - there is scope for some isolated thunderstorms to develop ... which could produce hail, gusty winds and intense rainfall leading to localised flooding ... but potential looks too low to warrant more than an isolated thunderstorm area. Overnight, frontegensis will occur on the northern edge of the warm/moist plume advecting out of the near continent, with a wave along this frontal boundary over the North Sea evolving a pulse of heavy and perhaps thundery rain with a risk of isolated lighting and localised flooding spreading NW across E Anglia and parts of N England overnight. ... IRELAND ... Heavy showers will likely develop this afternoon, some with hail and thunder, localised flooding is possible.
  15. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-05-24 05:59:58 Valid: 24/05/2018 0600 - 25/05/2018 UK & THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - 24 HR OUTLOOK Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
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