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Nick F

Senior forecaster
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Nick F last won the day on August 9

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About Nick F

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    Specialising in severe weather

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    Male
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    South Norwood, London (home), Hounslow/Heathrow (work)
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    Weather - particularly thunderstorms, growing plants, walking, cycling, cooking and good food, wine.

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  1. Hurricane Leslie to make landfall across Portugal tonight, bringing dangerous winds, surf and heavy rainfall. View the full blog here
  2. Nick F

    Hurricane Leslie

    Still quite a spread in GEFS for Hurricane Leslie track, some loop round and back west to brush Canaries as per NHC official track, while some, like 00z GFS operational track across Portugal and Spain 00z GFS operational Interestingly remnant low of ex-Michael approaches Iberia early next week
  3. Not something you see too often, two ex-Hurricanes approaching SW Europe this weekend, remnant low of Michael fills as it approaches NW Iberia early next week on both 00z EC and GFS, Hurricane Leslie more of a conundrum in that on the National Hurricane Center official track still tracks it east then loops south then west brushing Canaries - whereas latest guidance from EC and GFS take it into Iberia, GFS operational on more northerly track than EC deterministic
  4. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-10-11 10:24:16 Valid: 11/10/2018 0600 - 12/10/2018 0600 DAY 1 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  5. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-10-10 16:19:25 Valid: 10/10/2018 1700 - 11/10/2018 0600 DAY 1 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  6. Some media articles have been saying that Hurricane Leslie is heading to the UK, but there is no models confidently forecasting this for now. View the full blog here
  7. Quite a potent heavy shower passed through here in west London recently, heavy rain and very gusty winds with it.
  8. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-09-21 07:06:59 Valid: 21/09/2018 06z to 22/09/2018 06z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRIDAY 21 SEPT 2018 Synopsis Broad upper troughing overspreads higher latitudes of northern Europe and far N Atlantic with upper high over SW Europe - with a strong westrly jet stream flowing across the N Atlantic and UK, a deep surface depression (Storm Bronagh) continues to move away NE toward Norway. A polar westerly or northwesterly flow covers the UK, which will be unstable to SSTs and diurnal surface heating, supporting heavy showers and a few thunderstorms. ... S SCOTLAND, S IRELAND, N ENGLAND, WALES, MIDLANDS, LINCS ... A pool of unseasonably cold air aloft will shift east across the UK this morning on the back of shortwave in strong upper westerlies / jet moving out over the N Sea - creating steep low level lapse rates. This cold air atop seasonally warm SSTs will generate instability that will support scattered showers, some heavy with hail, spreading off coastal areas and well inland this morning across the above areas. As diurnal heating warms the ground, surface heating inland may allow strong enough convection to support isolated thunderstorms too, particularly into the afternoon. These storms accompanied by hail, gusty winds and perhaps localised flooding exacerbated by recent heavy rain. Any storms should fade after dark. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  9. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-09-21 07:06:59 Valid: 21/09/2018 06z to 22/09/2018 06z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - FRIDAY 21 SEPT 2018 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  10. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2018-09-20 12:10:49 Valid: 20/09/2018 12z - 21/09/2018 06z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THURSDAY/FRIDAY 20/21 SEPT 2018 Synopsis Broad upper troughing covers higher latitudes of N Europe / N Atlantic with ridging over southern Europe, a strong westerly jet stream continues to plough over UK and Ireland and on through to Scandinavia, a potent shortwave in the strong upper westerlies will interact with frontal zone lying across southern Britain and out across the N Atlantic, allowing a wave then developing low to form and track NE across England and Wales, deepening as it does so. A squally cold front sweeps SE across England and Wales later, clearing SE England in the early hours. There is potential for strong convection with isolated thunder, damaging convective gusts, intense rainfall and possibly an isolated tornado with the front and also near the deepening low as it exits NE. … ENGLAND and WALES … A warm and rather moist airmass conveyor, with Precipitable Water (PWAT) values approaching 35mm, will be present to south of buckling frontal zone stretching through Wales and central/northern England, which will feature a deepening low moving NE across N England this evening. The warm/moist airmass will become modestly unstable as large-scale ascent and cooling aloft occurs with approaching upper trough and developing surface low. Some embedded convection is likely to develop within pulses of increasingly heavy rainfall spreading NE across Wales, central and N England through the afternoon and evening along buckling frontal zone, although lightning is expected to be isolated, limited by warm layer aloft creating weak lapse rates, intense burst of convective rainfall may lead to some flash-flooding. As the cold front begins to shift S and E through the evening before clearing SE England/E Anglia in the early hours of Friday morning, as the low continues to deepen as it moves out to the North Sea, line convection appears likely to develop along the front – bringing a risk of squally intense rainfall accompanied by lightning locally and strong perhaps damaging wind gusts (50-60mph, locally more with exposure) just ahead of the front. Some flash-flooding and localised wind damage is possible with passage of the squally cold front. Given strong veering of surface winds with frontal passage and strong vertical shear – there is potential for a tornado too with any broken line segments along the cold front, but this potential isolated. ... WESTERN COASTAL AREAS EARLY FRIDAY ... Post cold front polar airmass atop of warm SSTs will create steep lapse rates which will support scattered heavy showers and some weak thunderstorms producing small hail, gusty winds and perhaps localised flooding across western coastal areas. Issued by: Nick Finnis https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective
  11. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2018-09-20 12:10:49 Valid: 20/09/2018 12z - 21/09/2018 06z THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - THURSDAY/FRIDAY 20/21 SEPT 2018 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  12. Met Office news release re: #StormBronagh https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/storm-bronagh
  13. Still quite a bit of uncertainty for now IMO re: Sunday's low, GFS and UKMO in the same camp with a shallow but slowly deepening low running across the south on Sunday, whilst 00z ECMWF shows a much more menacing and deeper low tracking and deepening further north. All charts below from 00z runs for noon Sun 23 Sept GFS UKMO ECMWF Ensembles from GFS and EC not really giving too much of a clue either other than GEFS mean and postage stamps want to keep the low south and shallow like the operational, whilst the EPS mean keeps the low in the means further north in track GEFS slp mean and spread GEFS postage stamps EPS mean slp Personally, I think the EC will track the low further south and shallower on subsequent runs, while GFS and UKMO perhaps edge further north. But still can't rule out some deeper options than GFS currently shows - 06z GFS very similar in track and depth to 00z of low centre across S England Sunday morning, so sticking to its guns for now!
  14. A look at a rather disturbed weather pattern affecting the UK this week and into the weekend, thanks to strong jet stream and ex-tropical systems in the mix. View the full blog here
  15. Well if the nasty storm GFS keeps progging for Sunday comes off, EC not as deep and further north but still very windy and wet, at least the models are in unison in bringing a strong ridge of high pressure in on the back of Sunday's system - which may persist throughout next week.
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