• Announcements

Nick F

Senior forecaster
  • Content count

    6,892
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    14

Nick F last won the day on August 21 2015

Nick F had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

11,649 Exceptional

6 Followers

About Nick F

  • Rank
    Specialising in severe weather
  • Birthday 08/09/75

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    South Norwood, London (home), Hounslow/Heathrow (work)
  • Interests
    Weather - particularly thunderstorms, growing plants, walking, cycling, cooking and good food, wine.

Recent Profile Visitors

26,833 profile views
  1. A very intense shower just clearing here at my parents just SW of Ashford in Kent Before (looking north) with radar Following a kind of 'whales mouth' below looking south had torrential rain but no thunder
  2. More funnel sightings today, this may even a weak tornado over the New Forest
  3. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-07-23 05:59:56 Valid: 23/07/2017 06z to 24/07/2017 06z CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - SUNDAY 23RD JULY 2017 Synopsis Upper and collocated surface lows across eastern England will slowly drift east across the N Sea during the evening. An unstable Wly veerying NWly to Nly flow will cover England and Wales. … ENGLAND and WALES … Cold mid-level temperatures of upper low atop moist diurnally heated surface airmass will create steep lapse rates which will support the re-development of scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms today. A zone of wind convergence shifting southeast across England and Wales during the day could be the focus for storms to organise and train along, bringing a threat of localised flooding where they do organise. Otherwise weak vertical shear will mean showers and storms that develop will be dis-organised and pulse-type and will limit the potential for severe weather. Any showers/storms may produce hail and, like yesterday, there could be a few funnels or even brief weak tornadoes / waterspouts – especially where surface convergence combines with buoyant and strong updrafts. Issued by Nick Finnis Also on Netweather here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=
  4. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2017-07-23 05:59:56 Valid: 23/07/2017 06z to 24/07/2017 06z CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - SUNDAY 23RD JULY 2017 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  5. Intense rain here near Croydon and one close CG seen with instant load thunder while looking out the window at our overflowing gutter. Need to clean that out ...
  6. *UPDATE 11AM ... have included a MARGINAL risk of severe weather (flooding) for parts of N England and S Scotland ... recent radar imagery and obs indicate convergence zone south of frontal boundary focusing persistent feed of heavy convective rain - which is also producing thunder ... there is a risk of localised flooding from this slow-moving zone of intense rainfall. Storm forecast: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=
  7. Just a had a rumble of thunder from heavy shower passing over in SE25
  8. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-07-22 06:50:16 Valid: 22/07/2017 06z to 23/07/2017 06z CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - SATURDAY 22ND JULY 2017 Synopsis Upper vortex and collocated surface low will drift east across England and Wales on Saturday. Airmass will be unstable across England and Wales and perhaps southern Scotland, with surface heating, leading to heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms. DISCUSSION … Cool mid-level temperatures of cold pool / upper low crossing England and Wales (500mb temps AOB -20C) will create steep lapse rates with surface heating in sunny spells. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across southwestern/southern coastal areas in the morning driven by warm SSTs, then diurnal heating will build cumulonimbus clouds elsewhere across England & Wales, high enough for charge separation to bring scattered thunderstorms. Given steep lapse rates, hail will be generated in heavy showers and thunderstorms, isolated up to 1cm in diameter, with any locally strong buoyant updrafts. Vertical shear will weak, so showers/storms will be disorganised / pulse-type convection. However, frequency of showers/storms towards the south coast and convergence near slow-moving frontal boundary across Wales, N England and Scottish borders could focus convection and lead to a localised flooding risk. However, organised severe weather is not expected. Most storms should fade after dark, as diurnal heating dissipates and airmass becomes stable. However, there may be sufficiently steep lapse rates from departing upper low atop moist surface airmass across SE England to keep heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms going after dark here, with an isolated risk of surface flooding. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  9. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2017-07-22 06:50:16 Valid: 22/07/2017 06z to 23/07/2017 06z CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - SATURDAY 22ND JULY 2017 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  10. That's most schools now finished for the summer, but the weather's not always playing ball over the coming days, with some unsettled weather at times and no heatwave on the horizon. View the full blog here
  11. Just hope there's no further flash-flooding from this squall moving across Cornwall, not exactly moving through too fast.
  12. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-07-20 21:37:59 Valid: 21/07/2017 06z to 22/07/2017 06z CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - FRIDAY 21ST JULY 2017 Synopsis A collocated upper and surface low will move in off the Atlantic across Ireland, becoming slow-moving. Associated occluding cold front will push east across England and Wales during Friday, lying Cumbria to East Sussex by 00z Saturday. SUMMARY … A band of heavy rain will accompany the occluding frontal boundary pushing east across, with some convective elements that may produce isolated thunderstorms along its length, with a risk of strong wind gusts and isolated flooding, as it moves in from the west across SW England, Wales and NW England during the day. A lower risk further east as the heavy rain reaches here in the evening and overnight. Also there is a risk of thunderstorms developing across Ireland in the afternoon, with a risk of localised flooding and isolated tornadoes. DISCUSSION … ... SW England, Wales, Midlands, NW England ... Models indicate fairly strong upward motion in association with lobes of strong positive vorticity wrapping around upper low moving in the west – particularly along/ahead frontal boundary pushing slowly east. A tongue of fairly warm and moist air drawn north ahead of the occluding cold front pushing east from the Irish Sea / SW approaches will produce some marginal low-level instability ahead of the front – due to weak lapse rates. But surface and upper support for strong lift of warm moist conveyor indicated by models along front, overlapped by strong deep layer shear of 30-50knts provided by divergent flow aloft of southerly jet streak parallel to front may be enough to produce some linear / squall convection. Main threats from this line convection, if it develops, will be brief but intense rainfall leading to flash-flooding. But strong low-level jet winds aloft may be brought towards the surface by downward momentum in any convective lines leading to a risk of strong convective gusts of 40-50mph … so have issued a MARGINAL risk for severe (flooding and strong winds). Lightning is expected to be isolated / sporadic with these frontal convective lines … given weak lapse rates forecast. ... Ireland / N. Ireland ... Post frontal airmass across Ireland / N. Ireland in the afternoon will have steeper lapse rates due to surface heating in any sunshine beneath cold pool of upper low aloft. So there is greater risk of thunderstorms/lightning developing here, though small hail and localised flooding will be the main threat here. Worth highlighting that the cold core upper low, low-level instability, steep lapse rates and low Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) here will be favourable conditions for brief funnel/tornadoes where surface convergence forms in the low pressure system crossing the area. Have issued a MARGINAL risk for localised flooding and isolated tornado risk. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  13. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2017-07-20 21:37:59 Valid: 21/07/2017 06z to 22/07/2017 06z CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - FRIDAY 21ST JULY 2017 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  14. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2017-07-19 07:46:40 Valid: 19/07/17 06Z TO 20/07/17 06Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - WEDS 19TH JULY 2017 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  15. Is a MCV (Mesoscale Convective Vortex) - look at the swirl or circulation!