Nick F

Senior forecaster
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Nick F last won the day on August 21 2015

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About Nick F

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    Specialising in severe weather
  • Birthday 08/09/75

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    South Norwood, London (home), Hounslow/Heathrow (work)
  • Interests
    Weather - particularly thunderstorms, growing plants, walking, cycling, cooking and good food, wine.

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  1. Video clip off dash cam of us intercepting the wedge tornado which then moved north across Elk City. We got caught in the outer circulation of it!
  2. All the ingredients coming together today for one of if not the biggest tornado outbreaks of the season thus far. A deep upper low is slowly rotating east off the Four Corners over the Mountain west, strong SWly flow aloft ahead of this low across the southern and central Plains, surface low over southern high plains drawing rich low-level moisture north from Gulf of Mexico across much of southern plains south of warm front, eventually lifting into Kansas. 3000-4000 j/kg CAPE this afternoon in this moisture as temps hit 80-90F and lapse rates steepen as upper low approaches from west. Winds backing SEly below SWly flow aloft will create strong low-level shear -especially along triple point and warm front moving Into western Kansas and dry line edging in across SW Kansas and W Oklahoma. Ideal conditions for tornadoes should storms that form remain discrete. some concerns with regards to recent model runs though. HRRR a little messy with one round of storms pushing up from the south across Oklahoma this afternoon as moisture surges north and is lifted by a disturbance in upper flow ejecting NE, then another round developing early evening along dryline, which should be more discrete and pose the greatest tornado risk. Best not to get suckered in to the first round this afternoon perhaps. Still waiting for the decent moisture to arrive here in Woodward in NW Oklahoma, where we have stayed overnight ... but the big guns of the storm chasing and research world were at our hotel last night
  3. A few photos of yesterday's storms 70 miles east of Amarillo in the eastern Texas Panhandle as the sun was going down.
  4. Daily blog of Tour 1 of he Netweather Stormchase 2017 View the full blog here
  5. SPC 4-8 day outlook picking up on the idea of an increase in severe weather over central and southern Plains from Tuesday 9th (First chase for Tour 1 on the 10th), though predictability is too low for them to delineate areas for now: The 500mb height loop below shows upper low moving east from California early next week. Moisture return and heat building ahead of the low, building CAPE as mid-levels cool from the west. The lift of this warm and moist GoM airmass by approaching upper low, aided by shortwaves rounding the low, will. combined with increasing wind shear of backed surface low against strengthening SWly wind with height, likely bring a few days of severe storms which will move eastward in spatial extent across central and southern Plains through the week. Possible severe threat further NE over northern Plains associated with edge strong NWly jet up and moisture return up there too. Weds 00z 500mb HGT/winds and MUCAPE (Tues 6pm CDT) Thurs 00z 500mb HGT/winds and MUCAPE (Weds 6pm CDT) So all-in-all, not looking too bad a start to tour 1, some uncertainties over how quickly the upper low will move out of the Desert southwest, prefer it to slow down a bit vs current model output.
  6. Following a dry winter, April 2017 was the 10th driest on record, with less than half the UK average rainfall. View the full blog here
  7. Skies have looked modestly threatening for rain all afternoon and finally we have some sporadic heavy downpours here in south London. Felt like months since I last heard thunder, but my craving for it will be satisfied as I head stateside to deliberately hunt for storms next Monday.
  8. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-04-30 21:42:00 Valid: 01/05/2017 00z to 02/05/2017 00z THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - MONDAY 1ST MAY 2017 Synopsis Cut-off upper low will slide east across France and the far S of England on Monday. At the surface, a shallow area of low pressure will drift N/NE across SW England/S Wales before sinking back S into the W English Channel by 00z Tues. Cold front will lift north Sunday night/Monday morning to lie from the Scottish Borders SW and S across Ern Ireland by 12z Mon, with wrap around occlusion extending from there across S England. ... S ENGLAND and S WALES ... Cold front lifting N Sunday night/Monday morning will bring outbreaks of rain, locally heavy, northwards across England and Wales. Behind this frontal rain, which will be mostly non-convective, insolation and cold air aloft will create steepening lapse rates to support heavy showers and a few thunderstorms, which will spiral around slow-moving low pressure across S England & S Wales and may focus into bands along wrap around occlusion. Any thunderstorms maybe accompanied by small hail and gusty winds. Also, locally heavy rainfall, where convection does align/organise along occluded front, may lead to localised flooding. Vertical shear, deep layer and low-level, will be weak where greatest instability will be, so any thunderstorms will be short-lived, so severe weather not expected on Monday. Surface convergence under slack low pressure centre may aid in the development of one or two funnel clouds that may extend toward the surface with stronger updrafts. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  9. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2017-04-30 21:42:00 Valid: 01/05/2017 00z to 02/05/2017 00z THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - MONDAY 1ST MAY 2017 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  10. Blog looking at why it's not entirely unusual for wintry weather and even snow to return after a taste of early summer in April and May. View the full blog here
  11. Hopefully another day of interesting convective skies today across England - especially towards the SE - where there will be greatest instability beneath departing upper trough Here's my storm forecast for today: Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-04-26 09:23:12 Valid: 26/04/2017 06z to 27/04/2017 06z STORM FORECAST - WEDS 26TH APRIL 2017 Synopsis Upper trough will continue to push SE into mainland northern Europe today, the back edge of the trough influencing eastern England, while heights rise off the Atlantic across northern and western Britain. At the surface, an area of low pressure will drop SE from the Norwegian Sea toward the North Sea by midnight, associated frontal system ahead of the low will bring cloud and rain to Scotland, mostly dry EIRE + Wales, with an unstable and showery Nly flow across England. ... ENGLAND ... Cold air aloft towards SE UK (500mb temps AOB -35C) in association with departing upper trough will create steepest lapse rates here and the strongest likelihood of thunderstorms as diurnal heating increases instability by and through the afternoon. Isolated lightning from heavier showers can't be ruled out anywhere across England though. Any storms will be weak, given dry polar airmass and lack of warmth, but will produce small hail or graupel locally and perhaps gusty winds too. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  12. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2017-04-26 09:23:12 Valid: 26/04/2017 06z to 27/04/2017 06z STORM FORECAST - WEDS 26TH APRIL 2017 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here
  13. Morning, not posted in a while. After the unseasonably cold snap this week, although I like cold and snow in winter when it hangs around, it seems a waste of a potent northerly in late April with the strong sun and longer days, though it did bring some dramatic convective skies, hail and even thundersnow for some. But I like many others are probably hunting for a nice warm up. Having spent 10 days on Easter hols recently in Spain with blue skies, temps in the low to mid 20s, getting some colour and vitamin D, it's been a bit of a shock. The GFS was offering the low 20s for the middle of next week, but seems to have shifted temps downwards on the last few runs. The reason is the orientation of the high which seems to have shifted north and west on last few runs, so we get more of a cool easterly or northeasterly flow rather than light and variable winds. So temperatures not hitting 20s, rather mid to high teens at best. But should be pleasant out the breeze in the sun. Yesterday's 12z run for 1500hrs next Wednesday: Same time but from this morning's run, the high further north and west:
  14. Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-04-24 21:24:12 Valid: 25/04/2017 00z to 26/04/2017 00z CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - TUESDAY 24TH APRIL 2017 Synopsis Upper trough will dig south across the UK on Tuesday, at the surface - an area of high pressure will be situated to the W of the UK over the N Atlantic while a low pressure system will be slow-moving across Scandinavia. A cold and showery northerly flow will cover the UK with sufficient diurnal instability to support thunder and hail. ... E IRELAND, WALES, ENGLAND, S and E SCOTLAND ... Upper trough pushing south, containing unseasonably cold mid-level temperatures (500mb temps below -35C), will create steep lapse rates with surface heating in the strong late April sunshine, yeilding a few 100 j/kg CAPE across much of the UK. As a result, heavy showers will readily develop inland after a dry/clear start, scattered weak thunderstorms are likely too. Any showers/storms will be accompanied by hail and gusty winds, with a wintry mix of sleet or snow too - given low dew points/temps. No severe weather is expected. Issued by: Nick Finnis
  15. UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2017-04-24 21:24:12 Valid: 24/04/2017 00z to 25/04/2017 00z CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - TUESDAY 24TH APRIL 2017 Click here for the full forecastCheck the full storm forecast here