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Kentspur

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Everything posted by Kentspur

  1. Kentspur
    The ensembles must be seeing something the GFS op was mostly a warm outlier anyhow im keeping the faith and happy to wait it out...
  2. Kentspur
    As expected GFS 6z op run an outlier towards the end (full ensembles not out just yet on wetterzentrale) but trending colder for north and south alike
  3. Kentspur
    You're fine up in Scotland looks primed for some atleast temporary snowfalls being that far north. Anyway wheres our ECM clusters brigade to bring us some festive cheer?
  4. Kentspur
    Best signal yet for a significant SSW on the GFS ensembles now the clusters growing past the 0 mark. Merry Christmas all!
  5. Kentspur
    Can someone nuke the M4/ Thames lol this WILL happen guaranteed as its the default set up
  6. Kentspur
    Interesting although it's a bit of a cold outlier towards the end there does appear some support for almost as cold conditions even the control run leans cold with the ensembles seemingly splitting into 2 camps. What's most interesting is the supppsedly higher resolution Op and Control are in the colder camp!
  7. Kentspur
    Heavy snow across the south NYE?
  8. Kentspur
    Best AO and NAO negative signal yet towards 2nd week Jan matches well to the thoughts of EC46!
  9. Kentspur
    Well I always here about these 11 year cycles could we be aligning for another though I don't remember 2001-02 being anything special
  10. Kentspur
    Common knowledge on here mate on average its a 2/3 chance so the Met have mentioned in the past just gotta hope it falls right for us and we don't end up too far east or west of any high lat blocking set ups
  11. Kentspur
    Wow best I've seen yet more ensembles going further down on both GFS and CFS! Getting increasingly confident in a significant SSW!
  12. Kentspur
    AO and NAO both going negative in time for our increasingly likely decline in zonal winds Would be lovely to see a decent snowy spell in peak winter for once!
  13. Kentspur
    Euro heights delaying things? Late Jan best I'd say for a downwelling you'd expect anyway given lag time if any SSW in Early Jan
  14. Kentspur
    Best signal yet get in! GFS and CFS both on
  15. Kentspur
    It's earlier this year pal almost perfect timing in early January effects wouldn't last past the back end of February/early March should it occur as predicted currently on GFS etc
  16. Kentspur
    A backing off signal for a SSW? The model was hitting the magic 0 line before on CFS ensembles in early January
  17. Kentspur
    NEly Toppler post xmas on GEM lol better than recent charts though and more of a NWly too at Xmas itself for the north
  18. Kentspur
    Back to a chilly Christmas again on the 0z vs 18z GFS the drama continues WSW flow replaced by a PM NWly again I know we won't see anything down here but id still be happy for more of the country further north to see a white Christmsas should it happen
  19. Kentspur
    Keep seeing signs of some sort of high pressure flirting with the region around Iceland I wonder if we will see upgrades to this in the coming days... reminds me a little of mid to late January 2013 when we had a high pressure wedge around the same locale that ended up giving us a good snow event in the SE hopefully like then those Iberian heights disappear
  20. Kentspur
    Anyone able to interpret this better? My understanding is that it's showing a clear trend to +NAO Jan to March periods and might explain why there were so many epic 1960s winters. And why so many more recent winters such as 1989-90 and 90s winters and recent ones have been so mild and poor. Is it the Hadley Cell expansion causing more +NAO winters/March's also?
  21. Kentspur
    Another swing back to cold I swear the 0z are usually the mildest runs in prospective cold snaps not this week it seems 0z GFS vs 18z huge difference once again
  22. Kentspur
    Never seen so much flip flopping from Icon 0z best run yet for Xmas completely different from 18z a few hours ago with a Northerly rather than a NWly so uppers sweep further south seasonal would be nice atleast down here! Will Icon set the tone? I doubt the models have reached agreement just yet lol
  23. Kentspur
    Another huge ECM outlier at the end there! Ensembles aren't that cold for (this is for London) but further north in Scotland is def in the game
  24. Kentspur
    A white Christmas for Scotland is looking ever more likely IMO looking at the snow. Charts from GFS and GEM agree with places like Cumbria too showing the white stuff. ECM 12z a tad better than of recent today! Poor for us in the south and east of course still
  25. Kentspur
    Huge difference between 6z and latest 12z the NWly gets further south and digs in a little longer 850HPA temps a massive difference sure its not the end of the drama either!
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