Kentspur

Found a fair few in my Grandads side of the family tree from there and surrounds my mums from East Kent originally

Ive been stuck in Lordawood at a friends twice in the past lol once when lower ground i.e Chatham had no snow!

So much better than a failed dry Northerly which gets threatened by the Iberian high everytime it attempts to move south of the Midlands think im going to stick to the snow potential in the reliable period Monday for now too far away still to know about this period! Exciting times fellow Southern/Southeasterners

While many are looking in fi still. In the nearer term what's Icons take via Ventusky. Seems like a mid Kent&Medway Clipper becomes a Thames streamer followed by some light wintry showers making it further SW to parts of the south coast and IOW then onwards to the likes of Devon eventually. For my part of Kent Surrey Sussex/S Essex and London it Definitely looks an upgrade particularly during Monday night and lasts longer too!

And this confirms why us southerners/SE are more interested in anything from the East as per the more reliable timeframe if Kasims 2-8cms comes off for here I'd happily take that if this was to materialise with 0 snow later in Jan

I'd let the north hog this in fi as long as we get atleast a little dusting in the more reliable timeframe from the east this coming week hows that?

Definitely I've been stuck at my friends who used to live in Lordswood twice before once 8inches of snow while there's a slush fest 2miles away on lower ground! Same.here there won't be anything by the Thames a 2mile drive south or east and it can be like Narnia. Interesting how there's no mention on TV forecasts yet not even "possible Showers"

Mention of Hill snow on local Met update for London&the SE finally! But national weather not mentioning anything just dry. Well here's the latest tale from Ventuskys Icon precip charts- Looks like a Kent&Medway& East Coast Clipper gradually becomes a bit of a Thames Streamer down to the south coast& IOW and a few isolated wintery showers further west as the winds turn more E of NE nothing major but would be nice to see it come off!

GFS the trend finder right? Despite its recent verification stats

Seems a light streamer from the far E/S of Essex increasing a little as it crosses the Thames through my area down to the North Downs of East Surrey and NW Kent &Weald of Sevenoaks and surrounds and down to the Sussex South Downs even a light dusting id take I had my snow fix in Sweden in November

Surprised by that! Don't think I've ever seen a ENEly wind flow forecast bring more of the white stuff north of the Thames only a Direct Ely or a ESEly like during the Feb 2018 Beast most the models I just looked at show a line from the far east coast of East Anglias through here to West Kent- Sussex with others towards the Isle of Wight etc

Thanks Tom sorry to hear your plagued with another health issue. I've been working at Sidcup lately maybe see you around. Latest models showing some light convection for our part of the world with atleast -10c 850s Monday/Tuesday

In this example though would you class Gravesend/Dartford as Coastal even though they're estuary towns, As normally I think of East Kent etc and Southend as "coastal" but due to.the likely E/ENE wind flow wouldn't my area be in the firing line it seems like the charts show precip heading here also

Well it gets better the GFS and later on CFS ensembles now bring back the risk of a major SSW!

Does this also suggest Christmas day its only worth checking UKMO model for any idea of the forecast for a few days away look at the very poor performance by all the other models. Assuming the balloon data that gets mentioned every Christmas period. Very intriguing!!

Wow Just look how great UKMO is towards the end of this for the North Atlantic region! Didn't it first call this potential cold spell ahead of the flatter ECM and GFS too? Correct me if I'm wrong

Thankfully that GFS 18z op run was a outlier at the dodgy timeframe ensembles much better so Increasingly colder with still a small risk of light snow flurries in parts of the SE most runs place Medway down to Sevenoaks Weald etc in with a fair shout and maybe a few miles either side of this too Monday. Then we see a slight warm up to just below average temps as the high re- orientated before ridging to the North&NW followed by a even colder and potentially snowier period going by the ensembles fingers crossed morning runs are a goodun too!

Had to literally stop on the A2 by Crayford/ Dartford earlier as the road was completely flooded in parts shocking!

Dry sunny and frosty nights for the South during most northerlies anyway looks like a outlier post 12th Jan

Since when was the GFS pub run the run to watch isnt it with less data/lower res than 0z and 12? Combined with verification stats post day 9/10 I'm waiting for the 0z runs to see if there's a new trend?

I'd label this one a light Medway streamer bone dry at my place 2miles further east Shorne to Sheerness the white stuff I'll have to visit my mum in Strood

Looks like S/SE especially most at risk there to me in 1st cluster on 14th?

-11c over my place wheres the streamer posters gone? Or is it a odd flake in the wind?

Is Nick Sussex in Cyprus directing the flow east

I'm in the heart of that streamer what's the latest on that the apps have gone dry any high res models in range yet?