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Ben_Cambs

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  1. Ben_Cambs
    Damp and cold outside here this evening, with the temperature and dew point dropping slowly. Don't know what to expect when I wake up in the morning, though hopefully something snowy!
  2. Ben_Cambs
    GFS 18z indicating some wintry precipitation for the north of the region tonight.. Then the following charts for the pivoting front tomorrow evening into Saturday, the snow-line moving south. Going off these charts, it may not be until the early hours of Saturday until the snow begins to make an appearance: http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013032118/30-574.GIF?21-18 http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013032118/33-574.GIF?21-18 http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013032118/36-574.GIF?21-18 http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013032118/39-574.GIF?21-18 http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013032118/42-574.GIF?21-18 http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013032118/45-574.GIF?21-18
  3. Ben_Cambs
    At the moment Croydon doesn't look like it will see too much in the way of snow over the weekend, going off the latest model output, though there will be changes in the model output and shifts in precipitation projections etc. right up until T+0, so my best advice is just to keep up with the latest forecasts. Hopefully the weather doesn't provide to be a problem for you this weekend.
  4. Ben_Cambs
    Morning all, Relatively cloudy here this morning with a minimum of 0.4C overnight. GFS 0z continuing to hint at a little wintriness during tomorrow morning for some northern areas of the region, though not much in the way of precipitation at this point. Main period of interest is when the front pivots (I think!) during Friday night into Saturday, at the same time bringing the snowline south. GFS 0z brings snow right to the south coast though on the 18z last night kept the snowline north of the M4 corridor. I do think the GFS is quite good at predicting precipitation and I rate it over the NAE model which I don't think has performed that well during the winter just gone. NMM output will be interesting to view too, though it won't be probably until tomorrow evening when we know where the pivot for the precipitation will take place and where the snowline is for example.
  5. Ben_Cambs
    GFS 18z has a little snow preceding rain for the north of the region on Friday though fully rain elsewhere: http://91.121.16.5/m...3-574.GIF?20-18 http://91.121.16.5/m...6-574.GIF?20-18 http://91.121.16.5/m...9-574.GIF?20-18 http://91.121.16.5/m...2-574.GIF?20-18 Then snow line shifts southwards Friday night into Saturday as colder air returns and another front moves in, though again snow for areas in the north of the region: http://91.121.16.5/m...4-574.GIF?20-18 http://91.121.16.5/m...7-574.GIF?20-18 http://91.121.16.5/m...0-574.GIF?20-18 http://91.121.16.5/m...3-574.GIF?20-18 Expect plenty of change in the output such as the modelling of the snow line etc. over the next day or so.
  6. Ben_Cambs
    I'll go for 14th April.
  7. Ben_Cambs
    Evening all, A drab day here, with evidence of wintry precipitation overnight due to some very small deposits of snow. Damp and cold with a max temperature of just 3.2C. Certainly going to be close for the weekend for here, with the second front on Saturday looking like the best prospect for snow, with colder air also undercutting. First band may even struggle to reach here by the looks of it. GFS 18z rolling out in a few minutes.
  8. Ben_Cambs
    Evening all, Was an ok day here after a foggy start, maximum temperature of 7.6C. Winter is certainly dragging its heels, and we're looking at another possible snow event for the region on Friday/Saturday! After reading BJayKent's post above in regards to the CET this month, I had a look at the Cambridge average for this month, which is at just 3.3C so far, a figure which wouldn't be bad for January! With the cold weather looking to stay at least another week, it will interesting to compare March's average temperature figure to the months of the meterological winter just gone, though it is turning out to be an impressive March for cold weather.
  9. Ben_Cambs
    Morning all, A foggy start to the morning though the sun is attempting to break through now. I must admit I'm getting pretty bored with the weather this month has given us, too many cold and cloudy days with a chilly breeze. Can't wait for the weather to warm up, though looking at the model output it probably won't be another week at the very least until we see some milder temperatures.
  10. Ben_Cambs
    Well just had snow shower #6 for the day here and maybe a couple more to come within the next few hours. Temperature has only reached 0.6C with a bitter NE'ly wind. Good luck to those with the frontal snowfall!
  11. Ben_Cambs
    Hopefully once this front clears we'll get some decent snow showers off the North Sea!
  12. Ben_Cambs
    Moderate snow falling here, with a light covering on a few surfaces from snow that fell overnight. Currently 0C.
  13. Ben_Cambs
    Evening all.. Trying to catch up on events having been pretty busy of late. Despite the forecast for rain for most of the night there was little sign of rain during the night, though it was a damp and chilly start to the morning. Temperatures steadily dropping, maximum of 4.8C this afternoon, down to 1.2C. A little light rain outside at the moment, hopefully it won't be too long until the precipitation turns wintry. Would be nice to wake up to a wintry scene in the morning!
  14. Ben_Cambs
    Evening all, Catching up on the model output which I haven't viewed much of late though it does certainly scream potential as at stands for a decent spring cold blast (depending on your preference!), for which we haven't seen one for 5 years. Considering what the charts are showing (particularly ECM, GFS) I'd be pretty disappointed if we didn't see some snowfall. Sunday and Monday look pretty bitter in a very cold wind. I hope this upcoming cold spell doesn't drag on for too long as admittidly I'm after a spell of spring-like weather! However, I'll be happy with this cold spell if it does deliver, in terms of snowfall.
  15. Ben_Cambs
    A very pleasant day with long sunny spells and a maximum temperature of 10.5C. Looking forward to tomorrow with temperatures up to 13-14C and some sunny spells, which will feel very pleasant. Happy birthday to BJayKent!
  16. Ben_Cambs
    Morning all, Nice to have entered the first day of meteorological spring today, though the weather outside is akin to a typical winter's day! Quite looking forward to next week, with the models projecting temperatures of 10-13C, though we should also see our first meaningful rainfall for a while next week too. A cool and cloudy few days to come by the looks of it, a shame as I would of loved to of haved a sunny weekend.
  17. Ben_Cambs
    My view on this winter, from a couple of posts that I have recently put in my regional thread. Firstly a little temperature analysis: Comparing this winter's monthly averages (using Cambridge University weather station averages via. http://www.cl...ch/dtg/weather/) to the 1971-2000 average for Cambridge: 1971-2000 average: December: 5.1C January: 4.2C February: 4.3C This winter: December: 4.8C (-0.3) January: 3.1C (-1.1) February: 2.7C (-1.6 - not a definite figure at the moment) So colder than average temperatures for all three months, February in particular. Such differences for January and February accuentuated further when compared to the 1981-2010 averages, though December was actually +0.1C milder than the 1981-2010 average. This February has had no real mild periods with a maximum temperature of 10.5C recorded, with consistent periods of cool/cold weather. January in comparison is when the main cold spell of winter occured between roughly the 10th-25th of January, including the coldest temperature of -9.6C on the 22nd and a mean temperature of 0.5C or below on twelve consecutive days between 13th-25th. However the mean was higher than February thanks to a mildish first week or so of January and a mild end to the month, where the warmest temperature of the winter, 14.5C, was recorded on the 29th. Going back to December, a fairly mild second half of the month failed to cancel out a cold start to the month, and it wasn't until the 15th when double figure temperatures were reached for the first time of the winter. As for rainfall this winter, December had above-average rainfall while January and February had below average rainfall. And my general view on this winter: One thing that has been notable this winter is the lack of frosts, mainly associated with the amount of cloud during the cold spells that we have had. It's a shame that we haven't had any decent northerlies this winter, which may not of delivered snow for us that live inland, but as already mentioned would of delivered crisp, sunny days and sharp overnight frosts. Have to say that on the four winters I've been on here, this one has been the most gripping, certainly in the aspect of the models, which have for the vast majority of the winter provided a good level of interest for cold weather, though it has to be said unfortunately it didn't always work out, such as with December's failed easterly! I don't think this winter has been bad at all snow-wise, as my signature shows 13 days of snow falling here is pretty good, especially when you compare this to the winters c.1997-2008, where it would be a struggle to get 2-4 days of snow falling and even less snow lying. When compared to the recent spell of 'better winters' (2008-9 onwards), there was more snow this winter than last (arguably better for snowfall for my location too than December 2010, though I know this wasn't the case for many) , though the best winter for these stats, plus colder temperatures and frosts was the winter of 2009-10, 20 days of snow falling, 21 lying plus about 41 airfrosts too. I did prefer last February's cold spell which had a lot more sunshine compared to the January cold spell, however, as aforementioned I'm fairly pleased with the outcome of this winter, with one decent snowfall and the snow from the fall lasting for a good week or so after that, one 'severe' frost, though perhaps a lack of frost and sunshine during the cold spells (most of the sunshine has occured during milder periods of weather) has tainted this winter a bit compared to recent others.
  18. Ben_Cambs
    A little temperature analysis for my location this winter: Comparing this winter's monthly averages (using Cambridge University weather station averages via. http://http://www.cl...ch/dtg/weather/) to the 1971-2000 average for Cambridge: 1971-2000 average: December: 5.1C January: 4.2C February: 4.3C This winter: December: 4.8C (-0.3) January: 3.1C (-1.1) February: 2.7C (-1.6 - not a definite figure at the moment) Overall winter average: 3.5C (-1.0) So colder than average temperatures for all three months, February in particular. Such differences for January and February accuentuated further when compared to the 1981-2010 averages, though December was actually +0.1C milder than the 1981-2010 average. This February has had no real mild periods with a maximum temperature of 10.5C recorded, with consistent periods of cool/cold weather. January in comparison is when the main cold spell of winter occured between roughly the 10th-25th of January, including the coldest temperature of -9.6C on the 22nd and a mean temperature of 0.5C or below on twelve consecutive days between 13th-25th. However the mean was higher than February thanks to a mildish first week or so of January and a mild end to the month, where the warmest temperature of the winter, 14.5C, was recorded on the 29th. Going back to December, a fairly mild second half of the month failed to cancel out a cold start to the month, and it wasn't until the 15th when double figure temperatures were reached for the first time of the winter.
  19. Ben_Cambs
    Morning all, A touch of airfrost here this morning on this last day of meterological winter, minimum of -0.4C. A very nice start to the morning with a light breeze and plenty of sunshine. Unfortunately a weakening cold front travelling south tonight will deliver plenty of cloud and cooler temperatures compared to yesterday and today: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif?27-0 Looking at the models into the medium term it does appear that the Atlantic may begin to make inroads at least for a short period of time around the second half of next week with a signal of LP to the SW of the UK: http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-168.png?12 So the threat of bands of rain/showers increasing as next week progresses and bringing milder temperatures with it. Further along there is potential for a cold spell though probably not much worth mentioning for the time being.
  20. Ben_Cambs
    Well after a cloudy and drizzly start to the day, the cloud began to break up late morning leading to a wonderful sunny afternoon! Felt pleasant to be in the sun with a max temperature of 6.4C. Hopefully some more sunshine tomorrow but unfortunately full cloud cover returning for Friday and into the weekend. Hope all went well for you yesterday, John.
  21. Ben_Cambs
    Morning all, damp and cold here this morning with a temperature of 2C. Not very pleasant! A drab few days to come by the looks of it, temperatures only rising slightly as the week progresses. Models suggest little rainfall for the next 7-10 days. Hopefully it won't be too long until we see the sun again!
  22. Ben_Cambs
    Thanks AS, very much appreciate it! I think it's the cloud which is beginning to get to me and the sunny days at the start of the week really did whet my appetite for some sunny weather, hopefully not too long before we get a decent sunny period of weather!
  23. Ben_Cambs
    Evening all, Certainly been a chilly few days with the temperature not getting above 3C or so since Wednesday. Had some snow flurries in the past three days, most pronounced on Saturday and a sugar coating to go along with that. It does appear now that the northerly for next weekend will be too far east to affect the UK, with quieter, more stable conditions prevalent. After the sunny days that we had at the end of last week/start of this week, I personally am looking forward to our first spell of spring-like weather, whenever that is going to occur (hopefully not before too long!) I certainly wouldn't mind if we didn't see snow again until next November. However, I would certainly welcome a decent Arctic sourced northerly or two in the spring, which can deliver some decent convective snow and lovely sunny days with night-time frosts. One thing that has been notable this winter is the lack of frosts, mainly associated with the amount of cloud during the cold spells that we have had. It's a shame that we haven't had any decent northerlies this winter, which may not of delivered snow for us that live inland, but as already mentioned would of delivered crisp, sunny days and sharp overnight frosts. Have to say that on the four winters I've been on here, this one has been the most gripping, certainly in the aspect of the models, which have for the vast majority of the winter provided a good level of interest for cold weather, though it has to be said unfortunately it didn't always work out, such as with December's failed easterly! I don't think this winter has been bad at all snow-wise, as my signature shows 13 days of snow falling here is pretty good, especially when you compare this to the winters c.1997-2008, where it would be a struggle to get 2-4 days of snow falling and even less snow lying. When compared to the recent spell of 'better winters' (2008-9 onwards), there was more snow this winter than last (arguably better for snowfall for my location too than December 2010, though I know this wasn't the case for many) , though the best winter for these stats, plus colder temperatures and frosts was the winter of 2009-10, 20 days of snow falling, 21 lying plus about 41 airfrosts too. I did prefer last February's cold spell which had a lot more sunshine compared to the January cold spell, however, as aforementioned I'm fairly pleased with the outcome of this winter, with one decent snowfall and the snow from the fall lasting for a good week or so after that, one 'severe' frost, though perhaps a lack of frost and sunshine during the cold spells (most of the sunshine has occured during milder periods of weather) has tainted this winter a bit compared to recent others. That's my overall reflection on meterological winter that will soon give way. I know there's still a few days left of meterological winter, but I just wanted to give my thoughts on this winter while it is still relatively 'winter-like' weather-wise. Certainly however snow cannot be ruled out in March, April or even May! We're perhaps due a decent meterologically speaking spring snowfall, the last one really being in 2008 (or two!) and I hope such a snowfall will come via a northerly outbreak. As for this week's weather, mainly dry but cloudy (!). Temperatures recovering a bit as the week progresses.
  24. Ben_Cambs
    Oh yes I agree with that, my point was linked with my previous post that we're entering a dry period of weather, with HP likely to build at the start of next week following the E/NE'ly in the second half of this week which like you say could possibly be conducive for a streamer set-up. Sorry for any confusion.
  25. Ben_Cambs
    Further to my previous post: London GFS 06z ensembles, the lack of precipitation spikes along the bottom for the next 10 days or so signalling a period of welcomed dry weather: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
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